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How Russia’s sanctions are shifting portfolios

Gemma Dale
11 March 2022

While floods have devastated southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales, and the crisis in Ukraine shows few signs of abating, global sharemarkets remain volatile but relatively resilient. The ASX200 rose over 1% on Thursday, and is down just 0.5% over 5 days, while the S&P500 is down over 2% over the same period. Investors are responding to a surge in oil prices and wild trading in commodities, including a spike in the nickel price of such magnitude that the London Metal Exchange was forced to suspend trading.

The surge in oil prices, fetching about $US110 a barrel at the time of writing, has seen local energy stocks including Woodside Petroleum (WPL) and Santos Ltd (STO) enjoy a long-awaited day in the sun. Woodside is up nearly 20% in the last month, while Santos is trading near levels seen mid last year after a period of weakness. Investors have been selling Woodside on strength and buying into Santos, albeit in relatively small numbers for the latter. Beach Energy (BPT) has also seen selling although its recent surge has failed to recover the stock’s previous 52 week high, while long term investors bought Betashares Crude Oil ETF (OOO).

Woodside Petroleum (WPL) one month

Source: nabtrade

Energy security fears arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have driven up demand for stocks in producers and hopefuls in industrial metals that supply the infrastructure for renewable energy, including lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. Nickel Mines (NIC) saw active trading – and a trading halt – on Wednesday after a dramatic fall in its share price as investors worried it would be caught up in the short squeeze on one of its major shareholders (and customers). Core Lithium (CXO) remains a popular active trade, while Allkem (AKE), the combined Orocobre-Galaxy Resources lithium play continues to attract buyers. Gold, the traditional safe haven, is closing in on an all time high; cautious investors have put their faith in the physical gold ETF (GOLD).

Outside resources, Thursday’s rally, following Wednesday’s 1% gain, saw a return to strength in the big four banks, with the financials sector up 2% over 5 days. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) was a nearly 90% sell as it closed in on $100, finishing Thursday at $99.75. Nab (nab) shares closed just 1c short of $30, a key threshold for many investors, and also saw heavy selling, as did Westpac (WBC). Macquarie Group (MQG) has been mixed as it hovers around $185, while Magellan Financial Group (MFG) continues to find buyers when it fell below $14.50 on Wednesday.

On global markets, one investor has purchased a share in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.US), Warren Buffett’s legendary investment company. This is notable because a single Class A share costs nearly $US490,000 – over $AUD660,000. Berkshire Hathaway has sizeable holdings in Apple stock, as well as Bank of America and Coca Cola, so it offers a concentrated portfolio of large cap US equities. Buffett’s reputation has faded a little as his disinterest in high PE tech stocks has led to underperformance over the last decade, but a 20% fall in the Nasdaq from its peak may lead to a re-rating of the world’s most famous stock picker – one high net worth investor certainly thinks so.

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