On Tuesday

The week kicks off on Tuesday with the regular weekly reading on consumer confidence to be published by ANZ and Roy Morgan. In the previous week coronavirus concerns abounded with the confidence reading at 5½-year lows.

Also, on Tuesday, National Australia Bank releases its February business survey. In January the business confidence index rose from -2.5 points to -0.8 points. (The long-term average is +5.8 points). And the business conditions index fell from +2.7 points to +2.6 points. (The long-term average is +5.7 points). The survey was conducted in the period January 21February 3, 2020 across 400 firms.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Lending Indicators publication for January. In December, the value of total new home loan commitments to households rose by 4.4% to be up 14% on a year ago. The value of new owner occupier home loan commitments rose by 5.1% to be up 17.9% over the year. And the value of new investor home loan commitments lifted by 2.8% to be up by 4.9% over the year. Amongst the other results, the average mortgage to purchase an established dwelling exceeded $500,000 for the first time.

On Wednesday the ABS also releases the December Labour Account publication – a set of experimental estimates on the job market. The data includes estimates of filled jobs, the number of jobs worked, labour cost per job, average incomes and hours worked at an industry level. Also, on Wednesday, Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the March monthly reading on consumer confidence while the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor, Guy Debelle, delivers a speech.

Also, on Wednesday, Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the March monthly reading on consumer confidence while the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor, Guy Debelle, delivers a speech. While consumer sentiment is covered in the ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey, the monthly report from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute provides consumer estimates on the ‘wisest place to put new savings’. It should prove a fascinating report. The speech by Guy Debelle is to the Australian Financial Review Business Summit at 9am on Wednesday.

On Thursday

On Thursday, the Reserve Bank releases detailed estimates on credit and debit cards lending. Given that most retail transactions are made with either a credit or debit card, the data provides more insights into consumer spending.

Overseas: Inflation in focus

Inflation data in the US and China feature in the coming week. Investors will also be on the lookout for rate cuts from major central banks and economic stimulus packages from major nations.

On Monday

The week kicks off on Monday when Asian financial markets will react to the January and February international trade figures (exports and imports) released in China. The data is released on Saturday March 7 and will provide the first real look at the impact of the coronavirus on the Chinese economy. Exports are tipped to have fallen 8.4% over the year with imports down 9%. In the US on Monday, consumer inflation expectations data is issued.

On Tuesday

On Tuesday, the regular weekly reading on US chain store sales is issued with Business Optimism survey from the National Federation of Independent Business. In January the index rose from 102.7 to 104.3. On Tuesday in China, February data on consumer and producer prices are expected. Producer prices are up 0.1% on a year ago. Consumer prices are up 5.4% but heavily influenced by higher food prices.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index is released in the US. Core prices – excludes food and energy – may have lifted 0.2% in February, with the annual rate steady at 2.3%. The headline rate of inflation is tipped to ease from 2.5% to 2.2%. Also, on Wednesday, the regular weekly data on mortgage applications is released with the February monthly Budget Statement.

On Thursday

On Thursday, weekly data on new claims for unemployment insurance (jobless claims) is issued with the February Producer Price Index (PPI). After lifting 0.5% in February, the core measure of prices is tipped to lift by 0.2% in the month to keep the annual rate at 1.7%. The headline PPI is tipped to fall from 2.1% to 1.7% in February.

On Friday

On Friday, the final reading of inflation is released for the week – the February data on export and import prices. At this early stage import prices are tipped to have fallen 0.6% in the month with export prices up 1.0%. Also, on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment survey for March. This is the customary ‘preliminary’ reading that will be confirmed with the ‘final’ estimate a week later. Analysts are tipping a fall in the consumer sentiment index from 101 to 97.5 in March. In China on Friday the February reading on new vehicle sales is issued with the estimate on foreign direct investment. In January, new vehicle sales were down by 18.7% on a year ago. And forecasters believe that the February sales may be down as much as 30%.