5 December 2020
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Australia: Inflation in focus

Craig James
23 October 2020

On Monday

But the week kicks off on Monday with the quarterly State of the States report from CommSec. The report details the current economic performance of the states and territories. Also, on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases preliminary trade in goods data for September.

On Tuesday

On Tuesday, the weekly measure of consumer confidence is released by ANZ and Roy Morgan. And Commonwealth Bank (CBA) issues its fortnightly report of credit and debit card spending. Also, on Tuesday Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Michele Bullock (Financial System) speaks to the Ayr Chamber of Commerce. Investors are trying to grab hints on monetary policy easing measures that may be delivered at the November 3 Board meeting.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the ABS releases the September quarter Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation. Also, on Wednesday the ABS releases Provisional Mortality Statistics for the January-July period.

After falling by 1.9% in the June quarter – the most in 89 years - prices are tipped to rise by 1.4%, lifting the annual rate from -0.3% to 1.0%. The trimmed mean (underlying measure) is tipped to rise by 0.6% in the quarter and by 1.4% over the year.

On Thursday

Also, on Thursday, the ABS releases quarterly data on business counts for the 2019/20 financial year. This data has been fast-tracked to highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the business sector.

On Friday

And on Friday, the ABS releases data on business inflation – the Producer Price Indexes. The Reserve Bank also releases private sector credit (or loans outstanding) data.

Overseas: US economic growth and housing in spotlight

In the coming week investors will get the first look at the September quarter US economic growth figures. A raft of US housing market indicators will also be released.

On Monday

On Monday, the Chicago Fed national activity and Dallas Fed manufacturing indexes are both scheduled with new home sales data. Economists expect sales to fall 0.1% to an annual rate of 1.01 million in September.

On Tuesday

On Tuesday, the weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales figures are released with durable goods orders (a measure of business investment) and consumer confidence data. There are two measures of home prices – from the FHFA and S&P/Case Shiller. And the influential Richmond Fed manufacturing index is issued. In China on Tuesday, data on industrial profits is released for September.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday in the US, the weekly data on US mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is due with wholesale inventories and the advance data on exports and imports of goods in September.

On Thursday

On Thursday, data on weekly claims for unemployment benefits (initial jobless claims) are issued together with the first look at economic growth data for the September quarter and pending home sales. After falling at an annualised rate of 31.4% in the June quarter, a 32% rebound is tipped to be recorded for the September quarter by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

On Friday

On Friday, data on personal income and spending is released with the Chicago purchasing managers’ index, employment cost index (wages and benefits) and the final University of Michigan reading of consumer sentiment. Personal income may have lifted 0.5% in September with spending up 1%. Accompanying the data on income and spending is the key inflation measure – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator. The core measure may have risen by 0.2%.

On Saturday

In China on Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics releases the survey results for purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors. Services activity expanded in September, holding at a solid 55.9 points.

Financial markets: US corporate reporting season

Monday:

The third quarter (September quarter) corporate reporting season continues in the US. Amongst companies tipped to report on Monday: Restaurant Brands; Crane.

Tuesday:

3M; BP; Caterpillar; Corning; Eli Lilly; Harley Davidson; Jet Blue Airways; Merck; Novartis; Pfizer; Raytheon Technologies; Advanced Micro; Genworth Financial; Microsoft.

Wednesday:

Boeing; Bunge; Garmin; General Electric; MasterCard; UPS; eBay; Ford Motor; Gilead Sciences; Visa.

Thursday:

Alibaba; ConocoPhillips; Janus Henderson; Kraft Heinz; Royal Caribbean; Yum Brands; Alphabet; Apple; Atlassian; Facebook; MGM Resorts; ResMed; Twitter.

Friday: Altria; Chevron; Exxon Mobil.

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