In the current environment interest is focussed on the timeliest data so we can assess the impact of the COVID19 containment measures on the economy. Data on job advertisements and consumer sentiment are of most interest. And the Reserve Bank Board meets. Financial markets are closed on Good Friday.

On Monday

The week kicks off on Monday with that aforementioned data on job ads, to be issued from ANZ. While there are issues with the predictive capabilities of job ads (including concerns from the survey’s authors), the data still should prove fascinating. While many small businesses were standing down staff in March, we also know that bigger firms like Coles and Woolworths were taking on some of the affected workers. It is likely that more hiring than usual is being done directly by employers rather than through job sites.

Also, on Monday, Melbourne Institute releases its monthly inflation gauge. It’s a fair bet that central bank’s aren’t overly interested in inflation at present.

On Tuesday

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank Board meets. Given that the Bank issued a comprehensive package of measures on March 18, the question is whether any more can or should be done at present. Efforts to reduce the 3-year bond yield to 0.25% seem to be working. In terms of economic data on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the February international trade figures.  Roy Morgan and ANZ will release the weekly reading of consumer sentiment. And the AiGroup services index is due. Consumer sentiment has predicably slumped in recent weeks. But the main interest in Tuesday’s release is whether the stimulus packages and the early signs of ‘curve flattening’ of new COVID-19 cases has prompted any lift in consumer optimism.

Australia’s trade figures can be certainly filed in the “good news” column. Main interest with the February figures released on Tuesday is whether there was much change in the trade relationship with China.  Overall if our exports held up OK, there will be more optimism that the March quarter national accounts (economic growth figures) won’t be too adversely affected by both COVID-19 and the bushfires. CommBank Group economists expect the trade surplus to narrow from $5.21 billion to $4 billion in February.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the ABS issues the February Lending Indicators publication. The data covers not just home loans but other personal finance, lease loans and business lending commitments. Most interest is in the home loan data. In January, the value of total new home loan commitments to households rose by 4.6% to be up by 23.3% on a year ago. The value of new owner occupier home loan commitments rose by 5.0% to be up 26.9% over the year. And the value of new investor home loan commitments lifted by 3.6% to be up by 14.7% over the year.

On Thursday

On Thursday, the Reserve Bank issues the semi-annual Financial Stability Review. Most interest will centre on the Bank’s assessment of the financial sensitivities of household and business finances in the current stressful times.

Overseas: Spotlight firmly fixed on COVID-19.

While inflation data is issued in the US and China, investors will focus on spending, lending and hiring indicators due for release in the US. US financial markets are closed for Good Friday.

On Monday

The week kicks off in the US on Monday when New York Federal Reserve issues March data on consumer inflation expectations.

On Tuesday

On Tuesday in the US, the regular weekly reading on US chain store sales is due with consumer credit data, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism gauge and the JOLTS series of job openings. There is likely to be more than the usual amount of interest in the Redbook series of chain store sales to gauge how the US consumer is holding up. And predictably, the April economic optimism gauge likely slumped, the main interest lies in the magnitude of the decline.

As for the JOLTS series of job openings, the data covers the February month. So, it is probably too early to detect any influence from the COVID-19 containment measures. But the report will assist in gauging the health of the job market, ahead of the crisis.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday in the US, minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) (March 18) will be issued. Investors will spend a lot longer than usual in going through the minutes to get a full understanding of the thinking of Fed presidents. Also, on Wednesday the regular weekly data on mortgage applications is released. Interest rates are certainly low so investors will be encouraged if more borrowers are refinancing loans.

On Thursday

On Thursday in the US, weekly data on new claims for unemployment insurance (jobless claims) is issued with data on producer prices. The surge in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits has been staggering.

On Friday

On Friday in China, data on consumer and producer prices are released for March. And on Friday in the US, the monthly inflation data – the Consumer Price index is issued. Clearly there is less interest in inflation trends in the current environment.