A strange quirk of the statistical calendar is that each change of seasons in Australia is ushered in by a bevy of economic events. And so the ‘Autumn avalanche’ with more than a dozen indicators or events scheduled this week.

On Monday

The week kicks off on Monday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Business Indicators publication for the December quarter. The data on inventories or stocks is a direct input to Wednesday’s economic growth figures. And CoreLogic publishes the February results for home prices also on Monday. Home prices may have lifted by 1% in February with strength concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne.

Also, on Monday, both the AiGroup and CommBank issue separate survey results on manufacturing activity. Elsewhere, ANZ job advertisements data is scheduled after the release of the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge. 

On Tuesday

On Tuesday, the regular weekly reading on consumer confidence is published by ANZ and Roy Morgan. And the ABS publishes quarterly data on government spending and the Balance of Payments – the broader data on the trade position. The ABS also publishes the building approvals data on Tuesday – a key leading indicator for home building. The Reserve Bank Board meets on Tuesday but no change in interest rate are expected, despite an unwelcome lift in the unemployment rate to 5.3% in January.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the ABS releases the National Accounts – containing the key reading of economic (GDP) growth for the December quarter. CommBank economists forecast the Aussie economy to expand by 0.5% in the quarter to be up 2% over the year.

Also, on Wednesday, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries issues the February new vehicle sales figures. The CommBank publish its ‘final’ February purchasing manager survey for the services sector. And the AiGroup releases its latest update on construction activity.

On Thursday

On Thursday, the ABS releases the international (exports/imports) trade data for January. A trade surplus of around $3.5 billion is expected with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak hitting Chinese demand for Aussie commodities and services (tourism and education) exports towards month end.

On Friday

On Friday, retail trade data will be closely monitored by economists for the impact on consumer spending from bushfires, smoke hazes and concerns about COVID-19. CommBank economists tip a 0.4 per cent lift in spending in January. And the AiGroup issues its services activity gauge.

Overseas: China international trade and US jobs data in focus

The US employment report, together with Chinese international trade data feature this week. OPEC+ oil producers meet to decide production quotas on Thursday and Friday.

On Monday

The week kicks off on Monday in China, when Caixin Media and IHS Markit issues the manufacturing gauge for February. Economists expect private sector factory activity to contract for the first time since July 2019.  

In the US on Monday, construction spending data is issued alongside the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey. Construction spending is tipped to lift by 0.7% in January.

On Tuesday

On Tuesday, the regular weekly reading on US chain store sales and the ISM New York index are scheduled. Ward’s new vehicle sales data are also due with 16.9 million sales forecast by economists in February.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the ISM issues the services sector purchasing manager’s survey. Little change is expected on the current index of 55.5 points – above the 50 reading that separates expansion from contraction. A comparable services survey is also released in China by Caixin and IHS Markit with a contraction in activity expected. Also, on Wednesday, the regular weekly data on mortgage applications is released with the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on current economic conditions across US districts. And the ADP survey employment survey is expected to show that around 180,000 private sector jobs were created in February.

On Thursday

On Thursday, weekly data on new claims for unemployment insurance (jobless claims), factory orders and the Challenger survey of job cuts are all scheduled for release. An update on labour productivity and costs for the December quarter is provided – data which impacts wage growth, hours worked and the US unemployment rate.

On Friday

On Friday, US international trade (exports/imports) data is issued along with consumer credit, wholesale inventories for January. Economists expect a January trade deficit near $49 billion. Also, on Friday, US non-farm payrolls (employment) data is issued with the jobless rate, hours worked and average earnings data. A 190,000 lift in jobs is expected in January with the unemployment rate hovering just above 50-year lows at 3.6%. Annual wage growth of 3% is tipped. 

On Saturday

On Saturday in China, Customs Administration issues trade statistics for both January and February due to a combination of the Lunar New Year and disruption in shipments caused by COVID-19. Economists expect the aggregate trade data to be much weaker-than-usual due to reduced working days and delays in transport and production due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which shutdown of a large chunk of China’s economy.