13 August 2022
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In search of Goldilocks

Our Chief Economist Michael Knox wrote an interesting note last week regarding whether the recession in the US is in fact at an end, he noted that The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has commented that the US recession is “very likely” over. He said “very likely” because he meant “very likely”. In spite of this, […]

Who will have the last laugh? The Three Stooges and the rate rise

The Reserve Bank’s decision to slap a surprise interest rate rise, which incidentally I tipped on the six o’clock Sky News on Monday night with the great newsreader Jim Waley, has got me thinking about those comic geniuses — The Three Stooges. More on that in a minute. A gambling man Like a tragic comedy, […]

No rate rise please

My old mate, Rory Robertson, the hotshot economist and interest rate expert for the millionaire’s factory — Macquarie Bank (or Group, if you want to be precise) — has tipped an interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank. This comes as the latest ANZ job ads figures came in better than expected, which is just […]

Investor signposts - week beginning 4 October 2009

The big picture There’s no doubt that interest rates are again the hot topic on financial markets. It doesn’t seem that long ago when all the talk was about interest rate cuts. In fact, the last rate cut occurred just six months ago. But now discussion has shifted to rate hikes with a few forecasters […]

Shares on the nose?

There's a stench that some people seem to smell about shares, and the perceived pong has been pumped up thanks to the Global Financial Crisis, but it really worries me that poor old stocks are on the nose for the wrong reasons. The penny dropped when I was talking to Matt Abraham on 891 ABC […]

Super slackness

Newspapers ran with the wrong heading this week, when they screamed that: “Super fees cost savers $14 billion a year!” The more accurate headline should have been: “Ignorance, laziness and scabbiness is costing savers more than $14 billion a year.” (I don’t like being so mean and insulting but sometimes you have to be hard […]

Everything that glitters is not gold

One thing I learnt writing for great newspapers such as The Australian is that if you wanted to get a big pointer for your story, you had to make it a great photo opportunity. If I referred to Megan Gale or Kylie Minogue, it was always good for getting attention from my editors and inevitably […]

The great decluttering

This week is the time of the year in the area where we live that people put out their unwanted goods for the council to come and collect. This is a regular occurrence and happens twice a year. What strikes me more so this time around is that the piles of unwanted merchandise are much […]

Chinese Government - better capitalists?

To answer this question, we look at how China's stock market fared in the GFC. The chart below is a Common Base Chart, which shows a common starting point of 8 October 2007 in the left corner at 100, when world markets peaked. China's Shanghai Index (red), USA's S&P500 Index (blue) and Australia's ASX200 (purple). […]

It's hard being a bear (part six): good alternative theory?

If the economy does in fact recover from the Global Financial Crisis—without private debt levels once again rising relative to GDP—then my approach to economics will be proven wrong. But this won't prove conventional neoclassical economic theory right, because, for very different reasons to those that I put forward, modern neoclassical economics argues that the […]

Don't stop stimulating

When the Reserve Bank Governor speaks, everyone in debt and all the economic and market experts listen. And in the current context, the Federal Opposition hangs off every word as it tells the Rudd Government to cut back on stimulus. So, who is right? Until proven otherwise, the man with the whistle calling it is […]

October correction

Spooky stock market September proved a fizzer and now we have to brace for October with one US commentator warning to expect a seven to 17 per cent market sell off! However, the same guy is bullish on shares! As Manuel from Fawlty Towers might say: “Que?” (For those less Latin — “what?”) More on […]

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