17 October 2021
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Back to the future

Be wary of economists and commentators trying to justify their excessively negative calls, which look like they will end up wrong. On the other hand, don’t think that the rough economic times are totally behind us — they’re not! Only a month away But that said, considering how bad the economic outlook was after September’s […]

Investor signposts - week beginning 3 August 2009

The big picture A few months ago, the consensus view of economists was that unemployment would lift to at least eight per cent. We have always believed that this view was way too pessimistic, believing that unemployment would top out between 6.5 to 7.0 per cent, below the 30-year average of 7.1 per cent. But […]

Watch your V's and W's

Homespun wisdom has always advised us to watch our p’s and q’s but cautious investors might need to watch their v’s and w’s. Of course, if you are sick of the anxiety of ‘should I get into the market now or wait for a sell off’ and you don’t care about a 10 per cent […]

Don't write off the Big Mac Bank

Any investor who underestimates the potential of the millionaires' factory called Macquarie Group could live to regret it. Sure, all of the experts say the Macquarie model of taking fees off funds it originally set up, that in turn were taken to the market, is broken nowadays. However, my business commentary life has taught me […]

Slashing bank fees: a step in the right direction

Recently in the UK, history was made when the Court of Appeal confirmed the decision of the High Court that bank charges are subject to fairness rules. UK’s banks have since appealed to the House of Lords however, the recognition by the UK’s governing bodies that rules need to be in place to keep bank […]

Positioning for the future

Below is a chart of the Telstra share price over the past five years. It is clear that we have not seen the projected growth and many struggle to see what the future holds for Telstra. Is the company an income or growth stock? In my opinion, it may be that we eventually see a […]

No rate rise soon

Don’t panic, because despite what you’re reading in newspapers, interest rates are not about to rise! In fact, I really hope no one reads the story as it might help to ensure that it actually turns out to be correct. This is the classic economics writer dilemma when it comes to the sneaky game the […]

Real estate round-up

My old academic mate Steve Keen might have predicted a 40 per cent fall in real estate prices but one of the country’s most respected property economists can’t see it on his crystal ball. Rob Mellor, who for as long as I have been a business commentator has been ‘counting houses’ for the statistics business […]

On Rudd's Pain on the Road to Recovery

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has followed up his critque of neoliberalism with a new essay in the Sydney Morning Herald on the causes of the crisis, and the policies needed after recovery. With one exception, his key explanations for the crisis are the same as those identified by myself and the handful of other economists […]

It's all good!

History has always told me that when someone tells you “it’s all good” there tends to be a little bit of exaggeration and some important stuff can be left out. That applies equally to Wall Street and the US economy and that’s why I say when it comes to these important drivers for the Aussie […]

Investor signposts: week beginning 26 July 2009

The big picture In recent weeks, central banks around the globe have started providing more upbeat commentary on the economic landscape. And the much more optimistic rhetoric was clearly highlighted by Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, in his semi-annual testimony in front of Congress. He cited "tentative signs of stabilisation" in demand, the prospect of […]

Could this be the last hurrah?

“The US market last night tested and broke through 961 and has now activated my bullish short term outlook of a further run up per my comments on 21 July. The markets went up a massive 2.3 per cent on the S&P 500, closing at 976.28, having been as high as 979 for the day. […]

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