When Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss launched their cryptocurrency exchange Gemini into Australia in October 2025, the timing looked deliberate and confident.

The time was October 2025. Remember how young we all felt? Bitcoin was trading above US$120,000. Retail participation was strong. Australia was being pitched by crypto firms as a mature, regulated market with high adoption and improving payments infrastructure. Gemini registered with AUSTRAC, hired locally and rolled out Australian dollar banking rails via Osko and the New Payments Platform.

Now, four short months later, Gemini is leaving.

The decision is part of a broader retreat that will see Gemini exit Australia, the UK and the EU as it refocuses almost entirely on the United States. In a blog post published overnight, founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss said the move was apparently driven by efficiency, artificial intelligence and a need to simplify operations.

The market backdrop tells a less flattering story.

A confident entry

Gemini’s Australian launch was framed as a long-term commitment. The company cited its Global State of Crypto Report, which estimated around 22 per cent of Australians already owned digital assets, a figure comparable to the United States.

The exchange appointed James Logan as head of Australia, rolled out local payments and positioned itself as a regulated alternative for mainstream investors uneasy about offshore platforms.

At the time, Gemini described Australia as one of the world’s most exciting crypto markets. The message was clear. This was not a speculative beachhead, it was supposed to be a durable expansion.

That narrative has not aged well.

Since October 2025, bitcoin has fallen from around US$124,000 to roughly US$64,000 as of today, and there's no end to the fall in sight. The broader crypto market has followed, wiping hundreds of billions of dollars from valuations, slashing trading volumes and compressing margins across exchanges.

For global platforms, the economics of running local operations in smaller markets have deteriorated quickly.

AI, efficiency and headcount

In their blog post, the Winklevoss twins put artificial intelligence front and centre.

They argue AI has fundamentally changed productivity, turning what they describe as 10x engineers into 100x contributors and allowing far smaller teams to do more work, faster. Gemini’s workforce has already shrunk from a peak of about 1,100 in 2022 to roughly half that size by late 2025. A further 25 per cent cut is now underway.

The company says a smaller organisation, armed with AI tools, is not just cheaper but more effective.

That logic extends to geography.

Gemini admits it has struggled to gain meaningful traction outside the US. Operating in more than 60 countries added regulatory and operational complexity without delivering sufficient demand. Australia is explicitly named as one of the markets being cut.

The company says America remains its core opportunity, citing its capital markets and its ambition to build a broader “super app” combining crypto trading and prediction markets.

The crypto cycle matters

What the blog post does not dwell on is how sharply the crypto cycle has turned since Gemini arrived in Australia.

Exchanges make money on volume. Falling prices reduce speculative trading, discourage new users and compress revenue at exactly the same time compliance costs remain fixed. For firms that expanded aggressively near the top of the market, retrenchment is the predictable next step.

Gemini’s Australian launch now looks less like a carefully timed expansion and more like a late cycle bet that failed to survive the downturn.

That does not make the AI argument wrong. Automation is clearly reshaping how financial platforms operate. But exiting entire regions also reflects harsher realities. Australia is a competitive market with local incumbents, tightening regulation and users who have already lived through multiple crypto busts.

What a difference four months can make.