This week, investors are watching a packed run of Australian data for fresh clues on how the economy is holding up after three rate rises.
As usual, this information comes to us from the experts at CommSec.
Monday June 1
Cotality national house prices (May)
National house prices grew 0.3% month-on-month in April. With auction clearance rates dropping sharply, a dip in May prices would not come as a complete surprise.
Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (May)
This forward-looking gauge sat at 4.3% year-on-year in April. Unlike last week’s backward-looking ABS report, which showed headline CPI up 4.2% year-on-year and 3.4% on a trimmed mean basis, the gauge offers an earlier read on price pressures.
ANZ job advertisements (May)
Job ads fell 0.8% month-on-month in April. The May read offers a fresh insight into the jobs market after the ABS revealed national unemployment rose 0.2% to 4.5% in April.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
The index is expected to print at 53.2, pointing to continued expansion in US manufacturing.
US earnings highlights
Hewlett Packard reports.
Tuesday June 2
Building approvals (April)
Approvals fell 10.5% month-on-month in March. The April read will show whether the pipeline of new construction is stabilising.
US JOLTS job openings (April)
Openings totalled 6.87 million in March, a key gauge of US labour demand.
European inflation figures (May)
Euro area inflation is tipped at 3.2% year-on-year.
US earnings highlights
Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty report.
Wednesday June 3
Gross Domestic Product (March quarter)
The economy grew 2.6% in the December quarter. The March-quarter read will be more backward-looking given how much has happened since the quarter closed, including another rate rise, the drawn-out Iran conflict and the Budget.
S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI (May)
The index sat at 47.5 in April, below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.
European PPI (April)
Producer prices rose 2.1% year-on-year in March.
US ADP non-farm payrolls (May)
Private payrolls are predicted to rise 110,000, a precursor to Friday’s official jobs report.
US ISM services PMI (May)
The services index is forecast at 53.8, pointing to ongoing expansion in the larger services sector.
US durable goods orders (April)
Orders grew 0.8% month-on-month in March.
US earnings highlights
Broadcom, CrowdStrike and Medtronic report.
Thursday June 4
Goods trade balance (April)
The trade surplus was $1.8 billion in March. The April figure will update the picture on export earnings.
RBA Governor budget testimony
The Reserve Bank Governor appears before the Senate in Canberra, with markets watching for any guidance on the rate outlook.
US weekly jobless claims
Claims totalled 209,000 in the prior week, remaining historically low.
US earnings highlights
Brown Forman reports.
Friday June 5
US non-farm payrolls (May)
The headline US jobs report is tipped to show 95,000 jobs added in May.
US unemployment rate (May)
The jobless rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%, and will be watched closely for signs of labour-market softening.
Key themes to watch
- Australian house prices: Cotality’s May figures on Monday could show the first dip after April’s 0.3% rise, with auction clearance rates falling sharply.
- Inflation signals: the Melbourne Institute’s forward-looking gauge follows last week’s ABS CPI of 4.2% (3.4% on a trimmed mean basis), still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band.
- Jobs market: ANZ job ads and a run of US labour data, culminating in Friday’s payrolls and a 4.3% US unemployment forecast, will shape rate expectations on both sides of the Pacific.
- March-quarter GDP: Wednesday’s growth read is backward-looking given the rate rise, drawn-out Iran conflict and Budget since the quarter closed.
- Iran conflict: background risk remains, continuing to influence energy markets and broader risk appetite.
Check back next week for the latest investor calendar, only on Switzer.
