A light local diary hands the spotlight to the US this week, where the Federal Reserve’s June minutes, the ISM services read and the first of the June-quarter earnings all land. The bigger story for markets, though, is the run in semiconductors. Here’s what to watch.
As usual, this calendar comes to us from the experts at CommSec.
Monday July 6
Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (June)
The gauge rose 4.4% year-on-year in May.
ANZ job advertisements (June)
Job ads rose 1.8% month-on-month in May.
US ISM services PMI (June)
The index is tipped at 54.3.
Europe PPI (May)
Producer prices rose 4.9% in the year to April.
Tuesday July 7
US ADP weekly employment change
The prior week showed a gain of 30,750 jobs.
US trade balance (May)
A deficit of US$78.8 billion is predicted.
Wednesday July 8
Building approvals (May)
Approvals fell 3.4% month-on-month in April.
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks
She delivers a speech in Canberra.
US Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes
The minutes cover the June 17 meeting, at which the Fed left rates steady.
US consumer credit (May)
Credit expanded by US$20.73 billion in April.
Thursday July 9
US existing home sales (June)
Sales are tipped at 4.25 million.
Japan PPI (June)
Producer prices rose 6.3% year-on-year in May.
China CPI (June)
Consumer prices rose 1.2% year-on-year in May.
China PPI (June)
Producer prices rose 3.9% year-on-year in May.
US weekly jobless claims
Claims totalled 215,000 in the prior week.
Key themes to watch
According to CommSec, here’s what to keep an eye on.
Semiconductors are running the market: CommSec’s James Gruber says chip stocks are now the primary driver of global markets. On his numbers, semiconductors make up about 20% of the S&P 500’s total value, a record and up from around 5% in 2020, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped nearly 80% in the June quarter, its strongest on record. He notes it now trades about 70% above its 200-day average, beyond the levels seen at the 2000 dot-com peak.
The memory squeeze: Gruber points to DRAM and NAND memory prices, which he says have jumped hundreds of per cent over the past year, lifting the cost of data centres, phones, laptops and games consoles. Apple’s Tim Cook has called it a “hundred-year flood,” and Apple has raised prices on MacBooks and iPads to help cover it. Gruber says memory maker Micron’s net income has risen roughly 15-fold over the year, to around US$28 billion.
Money is chasing chips: CommSec flags the new US-listed Memory ETF, launched three months ago, as the fastest ever to reach US$25 billion in assets. That enthusiasm has come partly at the expense of the Magnificent Seven, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla and Microsoft, which Gruber says fell about 10% collectively in June as investors questioned whether their heavy AI spending will pay off.
Data and earnings: The local highlights are ANZ job ads on Monday and building approvals on Wednesday. In the US, watch the ISM services PMI and the Fed’s June meeting minutes. The US June-quarter earnings season also gets underway, with PepsiCo reporting Thursday and Delta Air Lines on Friday; the big American banks follow the week after.
Check back next week for the latest investor calendar, only on Switzer.
This article is general in nature and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
