Four central banks headline the week. The Reserve Bank is tipped to sit tight on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan looks set to move the other way the same day, and the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both follow later in the week. Add SpaceX’s blockbuster US listing and there is plenty for markets to digest.
As usual, this calendar comes to us from the experts at CommSec.
Monday June 15
US Empire State manufacturing index (June)
The index read 19.6 in May.
US industrial production (May)
Output is tipped to rise 0.2% month-on-month.
Tuesday June 16
RBA interest rate decision
The Reserve Bank is tipped to hold the cash rate at 4.35%.
Bank of Japan interest rate decision
The BoJ is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points to 1%.
China activity data (May)
China releases industrial production, retail sales and unemployment figures for May.
US housing starts (May)
Starts are forecast at 1.4 million.
Wednesday June 17
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.5% to 3.75%.
RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks
He addresses a bank conference in Melbourne.
Melbourne Institute leading index (May)
The index was flat (0.0%) in the previous month.
US retail sales (May)
Sales are tipped to rise 0.4% month-on-month.
Europe final CPI (May)
Euro-area inflation ran at +3.2% year-on-year in April.
Thursday June 18
Bank of England interest rate decision
The BoE rounds out a busy week for the world’s central banks.
US initial jobless claims (weekly)
Claims totalled 225,000 in the prior week.
US Philadelphia Fed business outlook (June)
The index sat at -0.4 in May.
US Conference Board leading index (May)
The index rose 0.1% in April.
Friday June 19
US markets closed
Wall Street is shut for a public holiday.
China markets closed
Chinese markets are also closed for a public holiday.
Key themes to watch
A central-bank double-header: CommSec’s James Gruber notes four central banks hand down decisions this week, Australia and Japan on Tuesday, the US on Wednesday and the United Kingdom on Thursday. The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35%, with market futures implying zero chance of a June hike. After the recent budget, GDP figures, inflation and softer labour data, the market is now pricing no RBA rate rises for the rest of this year or in 2027.
The great expectations flip: Gruber points out how far the script has turned. Earlier this year investors expected the RBA to lift rates several times while the Fed cut twice in 2026. Now the Fed is tipped to keep rates on hold at 3.50% to 3.75% and lift once by year-end, while the RBA stays put.
The Aussie dollar: those shifting rate dynamics could weigh on the local currency, and CommSec notes the Aussie dollar has already dipped. Higher US rates make the greenback relatively more attractive, because investors can earn more on US cash and bonds.
SpaceX hits the market: CommSec flags SpaceX’s US listing, scheduled for Friday June 12, as a near-term mover for Wall Street as the company enters the major indices and shares unlock for existing owners.
A quiet finish: both the US and Chinese stock markets are closed on Friday June 19 for public holidays.
Check back next week for the latest investor calendar, only on Switzer.
This article is general in nature and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
