This week ocal confidence and business conditions data will offer insight into how households and companies are navigating the current interest rate environment, while US inflation, GDP and employment indicators will help shape expectations for the global outlook.
As usual, this information comes to us from the experts at CommSec.
Tuesday March 10
Westpac consumer confidence (March)
The monthly survey offers an early read on household sentiment. Economists expect the index to fall by about 1.1%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around the interest rate outlook and cost-of-living pressures.
NAB business conditions (February)
NAB’s closely watched survey tracks activity across Australian businesses. Conditions slipped two points to 7 in January, and investors will be watching whether business momentum continues to soften.
US existing home sales (February)
Existing home sales are tipped to come in around 3.88 million. The housing market has recently shown signs of improvement as mortgage rates ease and price growth moderates.
Wednesday March 11
US inflation rate (February)
One of the week’s most important global data releases. Economists expect prices to rise 0.3% in the month, taking annual inflation to around 2.4%. Markets will assess whether inflation continues to move toward the Federal Reserve’s target.
Thursday March 12
US housing starts (January)
Housing construction activity is forecast to reach around 1.37 million annualised units, providing insight into the strength of the US residential building sector.
US building permits (January)
Permits are expected to come in at roughly 1.43 million. Because permits often lead construction activity, investors watch the figure for clues about future housing supply.
Friday March 13
US fourth-quarter GDP growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release updated GDP figures, with economists expecting growth of around 1.7% quarter-on-quarter. Markets will assess whether the US economy continues to show resilience.
US personal income & spending (January)
Consumer spending is expected to increase about 0.3% in the month, offering insight into the strength of household demand.
US durable goods orders (January)
Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods are forecast to rise around 1.7%, reflecting investment activity across key sectors of the economy.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment (March)
Sentiment is expected to come in around 57.0. While slightly improved recently, the index remains well below levels seen a year ago.
US JOLTS job openings (January)
The labour market snapshot follows a drop in openings to around 6.5 million in December, a sign that hiring demand may be gradually cooling.
Key themes to watch
- Consumer confidence: Australian household sentiment will help gauge how consumers are coping with the interest rate environment.
- Business momentum: NAB’s survey will provide a read on whether business conditions continue to soften after January’s decline.
- US inflation test: Wednesday’s CPI figures will be critical for expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
- Growth outlook: US GDP and spending data later in the week will offer clues about the strength of the world’s largest economy.
Check back next week for the latest investor calendar, only on Switzer.
