SpaceX is about to pull off what is set to be the biggest sharemarket float in history. But here’s why this strategist we spoke to is wary.<.strong>
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is heading for the Nasdaq, listing under the ticker SPCX. It is aiming to raise around US$75 billion, which would make it the largest initial public offering ever, roughly three times the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 float.
At an indicative US$135 a share, the deal values the company at about US$1.75 trillion.
It’s the float of the decade, but Jacqui Fearnley of ArcPoint OCIO told
The price looks stretched
The second is value.
Aswath Damodaran, the New York University professor known as the “dean of valuation”, has run the numbers and isn’t convinced, Jacqui relayed.
Damodaran puts SpaceX’s worth at around US$1.25 trillion to US$1.35 trillion, well below the roughly US$1.75 trillion the float is asking, and has said he won’t buy at the IPO price.
The selling that comes later
The third, Jacqui shared, is what happens after the party.
IPOs usually lock insiders out of selling for about 180 days. SpaceX’s deal is unusual: it lets staff and early backers start selling earlier, in stages across roughly the first six months.
The pattern Fearnley sees coming is one of forced buying up front, while the index funds pile in, then a wave of insider stock hitting the market just as that buying fades. “You tell me how those two balance out,” she said.
Her answer is to wait.
None of this means SpaceX is a poor company, mind you. Fearnley was clear there are “incredible assets” in the business. Her point is narrower: the float is built to open strong, and may look different once the forced buying stops and the selling starts. It also won’t be the last of its kind. OpenAI has reportedly filed to follow it to market later this year.
This article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal circumstances. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are as at 11 June 2026, and the SpaceX float was pricing around the time of writing, so confirm the current details before acting.
