Brent crude tipped past US$120 a barrel overnight on the back of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Australian EV market was already accelerating before the war. With petrol prices now setting fresh highs at the bowser, the case for going electric just got harder to argue with.
Today’s per barrel Brent crude price is its highest since June 2022, as the conflict between the United States, Iran and Israel grinds into another month second month with no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in sight. For Australian drivers, the flow-through has been immediate, as electric vehicle sales continue to take off.
2025 was a banner year for EVs in Australia. According to the Electric Vehicle Council’s State of EVs 2025 report, Australians bought 72,758 EVs in the first half of last year, up 24.4 per cent on the same period in 2024. That’s a little over 12 per cent of al new car sales for the year.
Year-to-date 2026 figures from VFACTS confirm the trend has continued. BYD’s Sealion 7 was Australia’s best-selling battery electric vehicle in both February and March, with monthly sales of 1,327 and 1,970 units respectively. Of the top ten BEVs sold in March 2026, seven were Chinese brands. Six were BYD models.
So where does this put the humble Aussie investor looking to benefit from this EV boom?
Speaking on the new-look Switzer TV this week, TenCap Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer Jun Bei Liu said the war has reframed the EV conversation from a climate story into an energy security one, and that several listed names sit directly in the path of accelerating consumer take-up.
1. Eagers Automotive (ASX: APE)
Eagers Automotive is Liu’s pick of the listed plays.
“APE Eagers is benefiting massively from this EV BYD purchase,” she said. “BYD ran out of stock so quickly. You couldn’t even get enough stock now with the EV. So APE Eagers, I think the update will be very strong, will be super strong. I think it’s doing very, very well. That is another company that exposure to the EV space — it’s just exploded.”
Eagers holds an 80 per cent interest in EVDealer Group, the joint venture that operates BYD’s primary retail and service network in Australia. BYD Australia took over import and distribution in its own right from July 2025, but the new five-year dealer agreement (with a five-year option) confirms Eagers as the brand’s dominant retail partner, with the right to expand the network further as volumes grow.
The numbers behind that arrangement are now visible in the VFACTS data. With six BYD models in the March 2026 top ten and the Sealion 7 commanding a clear lead at the top of the list, Eagers is the only ASX-listed automotive retailer with material direct exposure to the brand driving the bulk of Australia’s BEV growth.
2. Smartgroup Corporation (ASX: SIQ)
Liu’s second pick is novated leasing operator Smartgroup, which has been one of the principal beneficiaries of the federal Electric Car Discount and the FBT exemption that has made EVs significantly cheaper to lease through salary packaging arrangements.
The take-up has been substantial enough to put the scheme in the political crosshairs. The Productivity Commission has previously proposed scrapping the discount, and Liu acknowledged the risk is real.
“When the government announced the lease program many years ago, they didn’t expect the take up is so significant,” she said. “Everybody’s buying it and then it’s over their estimate by tenfold. So they bound to cut it. But the take is that if they will, they’re not going to take it away. And also because the war has really highlighted we need EVs. We need EVs. You can’t just rely on everything else. So they might potentially cut. However, I think that creates an opportunity for investors to position in a company like Smartgroup and others, because sentiment wise, the Smartgroup is a company at least.”
The view is contrarian: any sell-off triggered by a budget announcement on the lease scheme is, in Liu’s framing, a buying opportunity rather than a structural problem. The Federal Energy Minister has since ruled out changes to the discount in 2027, which the EV Council has noted publicly.
3. McMillan Shakespeare (ASX: MMS)
The third name in Liu’s set is Smartgroup’s larger competitor, McMillan Shakespeare. Her view here was more measured.
“Yeah, it’s the same. So but McMillan has a bit more problem. Ten percent of their earnings exposed to the NDIS, which is definitely going to get cut quite in a big way. Ten percent of their business is actually to set up program for NDIS. They’re the ones that are putting it together and then they will build people. So that’s actually is absolutely going to get impacted. Ten percent of business and the rest of it the way at least.”
The read is that McMillan offers similar EV novated lease exposure to Smartgroup, but with an additional ten per cent earnings overhang from NDIS-related work that Liu expects to face material cuts. For investors looking purely at the EV thematic, Smartgroup is the cleaner expression. McMillan participates in the same tailwind but carries an extra moving part.
Disclaimer: This article does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances. Before acting on anything we discuss, we strongly recommend you seek the appropriate professional advice.
