Election proves this is no country for old Liberals

Peter Switzer
5 May 2025

With the Coalition’s election night landslide loss and overall campaign being described as a “shit show” by cheesed off LNP MPs, the result has led to the usual finger-pointing insults from those who had no say over the policies promised and who are now jockeying for a prominent position in a shrunken Opposition team. There is one standout issue conservatives have to understand.

And this can’t be forgotten by the survivors of this political wrecking ball election: this is no country for old world liberals.

The voters who loved John Howard and who tune into Andrew Bolt followed by Peta Credlin each night, are like the Coalition after Saturday night — they’re shrinking!

If you hang around with fellow travellers, who see the world as you do, this election told you that you are in a minority. This chart below gives it to you plain, if you think I’m misreading your fellow Australians.

The final numbers could be a little different but given most of the independents are teals who have more in common with Labor than the Coalition, this is a country that rejected the vision of Peter Dutton so comprehensively that they looked passed all the unimpressive performances of Anthony Albanese over the past three years.

Whether rusted on Coalition supporters like it or not, there is a majority of Aussies who dislike:

  1. Those who want them to go back to the office.
  2. Climate change doubters.
  3. Political parties dominated by old, white men.
  4. Political parties not in tune with women, such that a daughter and granddaughter of former Liberal MPs, in Alegra Spender, was not courted and given a safe seat like Wentworth in Sydney’s east, which she has now made safe for herself!
  5. Donald Trump!

Political experts in the media will tell you Peter Dutton campaigned badly and that his team was strategically hopeless but this result underlines that the Liberals are simply out of touch with their constituency.

Largely the Nationals know their base and have effectively communicated to it, but the bush base is very different to the ones that the Libs need to understand. The fact that Peter Dutton lost his seat to Labor’s Ali France even indicates that the would-be leader was even out of touch with the people in his ‘hometown’!

And not helping has been the Trump effect. “Liberation Day” for Americans was when the US President caned the world with reciprocal tariffs. Since then, the Canadians rejected their conservative party that previously had a 20-point lead over the incumbent Liberal Party and that country’s election also dumped the conservative leader in his own seat as well!

Trump’s vindictive tariff policies have undermined the world’s view about the USA, which has resulted in stock market slumps, bond market concerns that pushed up interest rates, and it has bred fears of the twin terrors of recession and inflation at the same time rocking both business and consumer confidence.

On Friday, a lady who I know lamented how her husband’s super was down $50,000 since the Trump stock market sell-off and she was incensed that her beloved, hardworking partner was on the cusp of retiring with less because of the deal-making stunts that the US President is famous for.

Trump fans say this is what he does to pull off “the deal” but it has backfired on the political parties worldwide that have similar views on how countries should be run. It’s fair to say since Liberation Day, it has become Clobberation Day for stock markets and conservative parties heading to an election.

On January 25, Sky News reported this: “The latest Roy Morgan poll has revealed that, if held today, the Coalition would win the federal election with a slim majority. Polling shows the Coalition leading with 52 per cent to Labor’s 48 per cent, according to the unchanged two-party preferred vote”.

But there were signs that Labor’s support was on the rise and by February 25, this is what Roy Morgan was telling us: “The Roy Morgan Poll shows a clear boost for the Albanese Government with the ALP now on 51% (up 2.5%) ahead of the Coalition on 49% on a two-party preferred basis.”

But April 8 drove home the anti-Trump view in the land of Oz. Here’s the poll take from 9news.com.au: “The government has increased its lead over the opposition in the latest polling after US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Pollster Roy Morgan has found that if the federal election – scheduled for May 3 - were held today, Labor would be returned to government with an increased majority.

“Labor's polled vote rose 0.5 per cent in the past week to 53.5 per cent, while the Coalition fell 0.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis.”

The craziest mistake the Coalition could make is to assume this rejection from the country’s voters is all about Trump. He played a role in pissing off a lot of Aussies, but the smartest message from this demolition job on election day on the Opposition is that it needs to get to know its fellow Australians a whole lot better and they need to get new blood of an Alegra Spender kind.

The writing was on the wall when Josh Frydenberg lost his safe seat of Kooyong to a teal independent in Monique Ryan.

I know a lot of my buddies won’t like my conclusions on what this election taught us but the old great advice applies: “If nothing changes, nothing changes.”

As John F. Kennedy warned: “Change is the law of life. And those who only look to the past or present are certain to miss the future”.

By the way, our stock market is expected to be up 32 points at the start, but it’s not linked to the election result. This is because Wall Street liked the most recent US jobs report and because Donald Trump has been changing his tariff talk from aggressive to reasonable, showing markets have a way of even getting Trump to moderate his Trump-like ways!

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