Andy Burnham has entered the House of Commons, Nigel Farage has been stopped in his tracks, and Keir Starmer’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. A single by-election in a northern English seat few Australians had ever heard of has reshuffled the cards of British politics. Here is what happened — and why it matters.
The characteristic that both the United Kingdom and Australia have in common is their use of the system of single-member electoral divisions by which they elect their national lower houses of parliament. The major technical difference is the first-past-the-post system in the UK compared with preferential voting in Australia. Also, they have voluntary voting whereas ours is compulsory.
The system of single-member constituencies is very landslide prone. Thus, Sir Keir Starmer enjoyed a landslide win in July 2024. His Labour Party scored 33.7% of the vote and won 63.4% of the seats, that is 412 seats out of a total of 650 in the House of Commons. The Australian Labor Party in May 2025 scored 34.6% of the aggregate first preference vote from which it won 62.7% of the seats, that is 94 out of 150 in the House of Representatives.
From the above, one might think that the political position of Albanese is more-or-less like Starmer’s – but that is quite wrong. Albanese’s position is much stronger. Starmer’s situation is hopeless. The only thing that has kept him in the office of Prime Minister was that his obvious successor, Andy Burnham, did not have a seat in the House of Commons.
Each Australian member of the House of Representatives has substantially more electors on his roll than does the UK equivalent. For example, Farrer is dead on the Australian average. The number of electors in Farrer for the recent by-election was 124,447. By contrast, Makerfield at the July 2024 general election had 76,641 electors but was dead on the British average.
What is Makerfield?
The answer to this question is that Makerfield is an English constituency in the north of the country very close to Manchester but not classified as being a Manchester seat. There is no town called Makerfield but, under one name or another, it has elected a Labour member continuously since 1906. On Thursday 18 June there were by-elections in three British constituencies but only Makerfield attracted international attention.
Five By-Elections, Three Shocks
Although Starmer has been roundly rejected in all the opinion polls and in elections for local government and for Wales and Scotland thus far he can claim to have lost very little in the way of by-elections. How many have there been this parliamentary term and what was their cause? The answer is that there have been five resignations of left-of-centre MPs creating five by-elections of which three were held last Thursday.
The first two were in safe Labour seats. Up north in Cheshire there is a seat known as Runcorn and Helsby. The by-election was held in May 2025 and was caused by the March 2025 resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury. The by-election was generally predicted to be a win for Sarah Pochin of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party. The forecasters turned out to be correct. Reform UK had been gaining seats from defections by Conservative MPs but now there was a Reform gain from Labour delivered by voters!
The second by-election under Starmer was in the seat of Gorton and Denton. Gorton is part of Manchester and Denton is a nearby town. In January 2026 the resignation of Labour member Andrew Gwynne occurred, and the following month saw the by-election which pundits generally predicted would go to Reform. They were shocked. Hannah Spencer of the Green Party staged an upset win in this traditionally very safe Labour seat.
An important detail attaches to Gorton and Denton. The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, was a serious possibility to become the new member but at that stage Starmer’s position seemed to be quite strong. The Labour Party’s National Executive decided to protect Starmer’s status by deciding not to allow Burnham to be the candidate. The fear was that if Burnham were the candidate and won the seat it would be perceived to be a threat to Starmer’s position as party leader and Prime Minister.
There were three by-elections last Thursday but two attracted very little attention internationally. Those two are seats in Scotland, Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. They have been caused by the resignations of senior Scottish National Party MPs who were recently elected to the Scottish Parliament and must therefore resign their Westminster seats. The SNP has retained Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (with the Conservative candidate coming second) and the Conservative Party has gained Aberdeen South from the SNP.
The Makerfield by-election was caused by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons who specifically left his seat open to Andy Burnham so that Burnham could become an MP. It was clear from the start that Burnham would win the seat – as I repeatedly predicted. It was a landslide win for Burnham who has won more votes than all the other candidates combined.
Why this result matters
This result is to be applauded for two reasons. The first is that it will enable the British Labour Party to replace Starmer by Burnham. It is a pity about Starmer. He is one of those very distinguished men who was very successful in his first career but proved a failure as a politician. He reminds me of Australia’s Sir Garfield Barwick. Bob Menzies wanted Barwick to be his successor and, in effect, gave him a safe seat in the House of Representatives. Unfortunately, it became clear that Barwick did not have what it took to be Australia’s Prime Minister.
The second reason why this result is to be applauded is that it is a setback for Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party. If Reform had won Makerfield, then Farage would have received a huge boost of momentum and adrenaline, populism’s two magic ingredients. Fortunately, Farage has been deflated. So, I predict the next Prime Minister after Burnham will be Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party who is currently the Leader of the Opposition. She is a very impressive young woman of colour. Readers are asked to note the result in Aberdeen South. It was a very good Conservative win and is also to be applauded. There will be no more defections of Conservative MPs.
To me, Farage is a cheap-jack populist of the cheapest variety, notwithstanding his wealth, his posh English accent and upper class bearing. He is worse than Pauline Hanson who is his Australian equivalent. In my opinion the thought that Farage might be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is even more repulsive than the idea that Hanson might be Australia’s Prime Minister.
