Why are young men backing Trump and Hanson and what does Australia’s NDIS blowout have to do with this?
The number of 25 to 34-year-olds who say they’re “permanently unable” to work has increased fivefold in the past 20 years, tracking with the global rise of young men “drifting around” and not in school, work, or training, in what one expert says is “one of the most severe social issues we’re facing”.
Here are the key facts:
- For the first time, the number of 25 to 34-year-old men who say they are “permanently unable” to work now exceeds the number of 35 to 44-year-old men who say the same.
- The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is being blamed because of mental health diagnoses.
- In 2000, the number was 0.3% of the workforce. Now it’s 2%.
- For women aged 25–34, the number has gone from 0.2% to 1.3%.
- The Australian reports: “Since mid-2025, more 25 to 34-year-old men than 35 to 44-year-old men reported they were ‘permanently unable’ to work in a majority of the monthly ABS surveys.”
- In February 2026, 15% of men aged under 65 who said they were permanently unable to work were aged between 25 and 34. And 12.4% were aged between 35 and 44.
Robert Breunig, Australian National University public policy economist, says these young people are called NEETs — not in education, employment or training: “What are they doing? They’re hanging out at their parents’ house playing computer games – that’s one story that we hear. Or they’re kind of drifting around and not really finding their place in life,” Breunig told The Australian.
It comes as the projected cost of the NDIS program will go from $52.3 billion in 2025–26 to $63.4 billion in 2028–29 and is expected to demand more funding than Medicare.
The likes of the Grattan Institute and the ABC have reported that the blowout can be explained by “rorting, bureaucracy and a lack of clear boundaries around eligibility.”
This is a classic case of where a good idea like the NDIS has been mishandled by governments, their public servants and politicians, who think it’s a vote winner. The irony of this thinking was underlined by The Australian’s Noah Yim, who reported that Professor Breunig may have inadvertently helped to explain the rising popularity of One Nation in local politics.
Yim says Breunig thinks the rise of the NEET was connected to a sense of political and socio-economic disenfranchisement: “These young boys are voting for the right,” he revealed. “This age group in the US, 18 to 30-year-old white boys, vote a higher proportion for Trump than any other age group.”
