When I look at the week ahead, there’s really only one number that matters for Australia, and we’ll get it on Wednesday — the monthly consumer price index.

Last month’s result was disappointing. It gave the market the impression that inflation might be too sticky, and that means the Reserve Bank could be forced to delay the rate cuts we’re all waiting for.

If this month’s CPI comes in softer, it will put a November rate cut back on the table. That’s what I think should happen anyway, especially since the Americans have already cut rates once this month and are tipped to cut two more times before year’s end.

The focus is squarely on inflation now. If the RBA can see a clear path down, it has every reason to cut and give borrowers some relief. Markets overseas are already moving in anticipation — the Dow finished up 172 points over the weekend, which should set the tone for a positive open on the ASX. The Aussie dollar is sitting just under 66 US cents.

Of course, what happens in the US will matter just as much. Their core PCE index, which the Federal Reserve rates as the most important inflation guide, is due this week. That number will be critical in shaping expectations for Fed policy. Then on Thursday, we’ll get US economic growth figures, which should tell us whether the economy is tipping toward recession or whether inflation is still the bigger problem.

If inflation isn’t the worry, the stock market will love it. And that, combined with a friendly CPI result here at home, could set up a strong run into the end of the year.

So while there’ll be plenty of noise this week — from markets to politics to whatever Donald Trump has to say about China or uranium — my eyes will be fixed on Wednesday’s inflation read. That’s the one number that could change the game for rates, for markets, and for investors.