My view is that Littleproud has very little to be proud about. However, he has much to be ashamed of – except that he has no shame. He has gained for himself the scalp of Sussan Ley.

It had been my hope that I would not need to write this article. Unfortunately, however, I must -because in my most recent article (published on Tuesday 3 February) I wrote:

My most controversial prediction for 2026 is that Sussan Ley will still be the Leader of the Opposition on Christmas Day. At that time commentators will commend her ability to put back together the Liberal-National Coalition that had been broken by the National Party’s hissy fit in January 2026.

That was 51 words in an article whose total lenghth came to 1,369 words. However, since it was my most controversial prediction, it isn’t surprising that the editor of Switzer Daily would give it the heading “Sussan Ley will survive as Liberal leader”. On the following weekend, Ley announced her success in putting the Coalition back together and, presumably, commentators and historians will give her credit for that.

My mistake was two-fold. First, I greatly under-estimated the degree of misogyny in the federal Liberal Party. Second, I greatly under-estimated the extent to which the modern Liberal Party is opinion poll driven.

Opinion polls reflect the kinds of answers people are prepared to give on the spot to questions uninvited and about which they haven’t had time to think. Any school boy knows that. Yet here we have modern professionals thinking it to be a good idea to sack the only female leader the Liberal Party has ever chosen – all on the basis of one Newspoll published on Monday 9 February.

Therefore, the historical verdict on these proceedings will be that the conservatives in the Liberal Party combined with the entire National Party to deny Sussan Ley any clear air. Now that they have got their man into his rightful place as leader, they will work very hard to ensure that he gets the clear air they worked so hard in their determination it be denied to Ley.

Given that the normal pattern of voting trends is for governments to lose support over time I am in no doubt that the Liberal Party will gain a dozen or more seats from Labor when the next election occurs in May 2028. That would have happened under Ley and it will happen under Taylor. It is just a question of who gets the credit for the gains. In 2028 the Liberal Party will greatly understate expectations, so when the votes are counted and seats determined they will say how pleased they are at the surprising extent of their gains.

The landslide Labor victory of Anthony Albanese in May 2025 is often compared with the landslide Labor victory of John Curtin in August 1943. So, there is every reason to compare the second Labor win in each case – the elections of September 1946 and May 2028. In each case the Liberal Party gained (will gain) seats from Labor. The big difference is the age of the Liberal leader. In 1946 Robert Menzies was 52 years old. Therefore, no reason existed to deny his entitlement to lead the Liberal Party into the next election in December 1949.

By contrast, Angus Taylor is now 59 and will be 62 two years hence, on the morrow of the next election. In my previous article I predicted that Andrew Hastie would be chosen as leader late in 2028, taking over from Ley. I am now much less confident about Hastie. It may well be that Taylor’s gains in 2028 are big enough that he is thought to be entitled to be leader again in 2031. Anyway, Hastie in 2028 will be only 46 years of age.

In that article I made 18 predictions. While I admit to error in one case I stand by the remaining 17 predictions, especially that both Nicolette Boele (independent) and Giselle Kapterian (Liberal) will together be members of the House of Representatives in 2028. However, I am now much less confident that Josh Frydenberg will be a member of the House of Representatives.

In all these circumstances the most interesing comparison is between the situation of the Conserative Party in the United Kingdom and the Australian Liberal Party. Both are traditionally the most successful governing party in the country. Both are threatened by populists to their right. In both cases opinion polls, in my opinion, greatly over-estimate the chance of the leader on the populist right party becoming Prime Minister.

Yet in the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party has never sought to undermine the position of the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, a black woman. She has been given the very clear air denied to Sussan Ley. So, why does the British Conservative Party  indicate a pride in itself that the Australian Liberal Party seems to lack?

The difference, I suggest, is that there is no British equivalent to Australia’s National Party. In my opinion the Nationals in Australia have displayed malice both towards Ley personally and to the Liberal Party in general. They have done that by turning on hissy fits designed to humiliate Ley and her party. Now that the Nationals have caused the Liberals to get rid of Ley and instal Taylor, their triumph is complete. There will be no more need for hissy fits. Instead, Taylor will simply implement every request David Littleproud makes of him.

The most remarkable thing about the January 2026 hissy fit is the way in which Littleproud has persuaded many people that the Liberal Party is just as much at fault as the Nationals. Let us be clear about this. The three National Party senators who broke the rules (Bridget McKenzie, Ross Cvadell and Susan McDonald) did not need to vote against Labor’s antisemitic legislation. They could have abstained. They voted against purely to humiliate Ley – while sickeningly pretending that they were guided by genuine principle.

It is often said that Littleproud has very little to be proud about. Very true. However, he has much to be ashamed about – except that he has no shame. He has gained for himself the scalp of Sussan Ley and is competing with Labor as to which most enjoys the humiliation of the Liberal Party.

Furthermore, there is icing on the cake yet to come. When Ley vacates her rural seat of Farrer, the Nationals will stand a candidate – and it is a very good bet that the seat will move from the Liberal Party column to that of the National Party. It has every characteristic of being a Nationals seat. Prior to Ley, its member was Tim Fischer, who held Farrer from 1984 until his retirement in 2001.