Christopher Joye joins Peter Switzer for a feature-length interview to explain why he believes Australia could be on the verge of record house price falls. From the RBA’s next moves to the Federal Budget and immigration, he outlines the forces he says are reshaping Australia’s housing market.
In this interview:
- Housing: why Joye says prices are already falling at up to 14 per cent a year in Sydney, and how the Budget’s negative-gearing changes act like extra rate hikes.
- Interest rates: his call that the RBA is not done, and needs to push the cash rate to 4.75 to 5 per cent.
- The Federal Budget shift: how the negative-gearing change could rewire the way Australians invest in property.
- The banks: why he says CBA and the Aussie banks look overvalued, using one simple valuation test.
- The US and the Aussie dollar: why he is bullish on America, bearish on the Australian dollar, and backing “re-dollarisation”.
- AI: his contrarian case that AI is inflationary, not deflationary.
- The big picture: his warning on government spending, immigration and productivity, and why he thinks it ends in recession.
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