Mark Bouris has been writing home loans since the Wizard days of the late 1990s. Through Yellow Brick Road, he says the business has now lent around $310 billion to Australians and writes about $33 billion a year, close to 5% of all new mortgage flow in the country. So when he reads the market off his own loan book, it’s a pretty decent cross-section of the market.
According to Bouris, it’s less of a property market slowdown we’re experiencing and more of a halt, adding that what people now borrow for has shifted entirely.
Investors, who made up close to 37% of his borrowers before the end of February, have “dropped like a stone” to around 22%. First-home buyers have fallen to “hardly anything.” The balance, now about 80% of the book, are refinancing.
“People have stopped buying houses,” he said.
“They’re refinancing the house they’ve got, or the house they’ve invested in.”
He attributes the new freeze to both the May Federal Budget and three rate-rises on the run. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate three times in the first half of 2026, in February, March and May, taking it to 4.35% before holding in June. Each rise cuts borrowing power for buyers, and in turn reduces activity on his loan book. Bouris paints a rough yet indicative picture: a buyer who could have borrowed about $900,000 before February can now get roughly 10% less, closer to $810,000.
And while buyers are under pressure, sellers are in no hurry to lower their prices. Bouris cites Reserve Bank figures showing about half of all property owners are at least two years ahead on their repayments, so sellers are under little pressure. Vendors actually in-market still price around February levels, and buyers who can no longer stretch that far cannot meet the market.
In her 28 July address, RBA governor Michele Bullock said the housing market had eased by more than the bank expected, linking it to the budget’s policy changes and a general softening in sentiment. Bouris reads that as vendors eventually having to come to buyers, because rates are rising rather than falling.
Tax is another factor in the investor retreat. The 2026-27 budget, handed down on 12 May, will from 1 July 2027 limit negative gearing to new builds and replace the 50% capital gains tax discount with cost-base indexation and a 30% minimum tax rate. Property held at budget night, 7:30pm on 12 May, is grandfathered on negative gearing. A home bought before the change carries a better tax position than one bought after, which Bouris says is one more reason fewer investors are coming through his door.
“All that’s really happened,” Bouris said, “is the policy has exacerbated the three rate rises we had before the May budget.”
