Treasury Wine Estates rewarded the believers who refused to sell this week, delivering an update that reversed its recent share price fortunes on the ASX.
At Thursday’s closing bell, shares in Treasury Wine Estates ripped 13% higher. It’s set to open on Friday trading at $4.66.
The move came on the back of an announcement issued to the exchange on Thursday, in which the company upgraded its full-year earnings guidance and pointed to a faster-than-modelled recovery in luxury volumes flowing back into mainland China.
For a stock that spent most of the past 12 months grinding in the doldrums, it hints that perhaps Australia’s favourite winemaker has finally found the bottom of its barrel.
The Investor Day deck released to the ASX before market open on Thursday set out the data behind the rally. Penfolds 3Q26 depletions in China were up 40% through Chinese New Year, with momentum continuing into April. Depletions grew across all key Penfolds markets in the quarter. In the US, luxury depletions rose 9% in 3Q26 led by key brands, with April and May depletions up 4%.
The day also marked the unveiling of a strategic transformation TWE has badged “Ascent”. The program is anchored on a $100 million per year cost reduction target, to be fully realised by FY29 with benefits commencing from FY27. It restructures the company around four regional divisions (Americas; ANZ and Europe; Greater China; and Emerging Markets) and rationalises the portfolio from 76 brands to fewer than 30, focused on three Power Brands (Penfolds, DAOU and Matua) and seven Regional Heroes.
The longer-term financial targets: an EBITS margin of 25% or higher, and a leverage ratio back below 2.0x by the end of FY28, from a forecast peak of approximately 2.9x in FY26. The company confirmed an additional $300 million in lender commitments to refinance FY27 maturities. Dividends remain suspended.
TWE also flagged a strategic and operational review of its Americas business to improve shareholder returns, following the softer demand outlook flagged in December and the RNDC settlement that handed it direct control of California inventory.
The Investor Day was hosted by chief executive Sam Fischer alongside interim chief financial officer Justin Pipito.
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