AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver still thinks the S&P/ASX 200 will finish at 4,500. This is one for those who are wavering and getting close to capitulation! 

In case you are feeling like running to cash, consider this — there are experts who are optimistic. "We think the economy probably bottomed in January," David Magee told CNBC.  "We look at the quality spreads and the bond market, we see the default risks have fallen, and with that, we think that the economy's […]

According to CNBC: Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin last week said he was lowering his full-year S&P forecast to 940 from 1,100—a significant drop but still a number showing a 20% gain from current levels. Also China announcing another stimulus package, at a time when there are signs that the first one is working to […]

According to CNBC, oil tycoon Bill Pickens thinks oil will rise to $US75 a barrel by year’s end. While this sounds like bad news to motorists, it has to reflect that he sees an economic recovery in his crystal ball. 

Newspapers are telling us we’re in recession — it’s possibly true, but the official line is that we have to get two quarters of negative growth and we haven’t got that yet. It does look likely that we will end up in an official recession as March is often a slow quarter, being post-Christmas. However, […]

Warren Buffett told CNBC that US banks are in better shape than many think. Most banks are in "pretty good shape" and can "earn their way out" of the current problems given the low cost of funds, but they "need to get back to banking." This is the job of the Obama administration and when […]

The US leadership gave the market some news on mark-to-market, the uptick rule and the bank rescue plan, and the Dow Jones went up 5.8% and the Nasdaq rocketed up 7%. We’re not out of the woods yet but it’s a sign that buyers want to buy. When some good economic news starts to bob […]

Local economist, Clifford Bennett from Kinetic Securities has called the end of the bear market! This is not an easy call to make, so let’s hope he has the best crystal ball in town! 

The Dow Jones was up 9% last week, while the S&P 500 went up 10.6%, matching the NASDAQ. I will curb my enthusiasm but the better noises coming out of the White House and the G20’s finance ministers’ resolve to beat the GFC — global financial crisis — was another promising sign. 

The latest reading of business lending for January showed a 6.5% jump following a 4.5% lift in December. Business borrowing is a good future indicator that recession talk has not completely spooked Aussie businesses. 

Despite a lot of negative news, especially on jobs, Goldman Sachs chief US economist, Jan Hatzius, expects a 2nd half of 2009 economic recovery but he thinks more stimulus is needed to sustain any recovery. 

Better than expected new home sales in the US, along with better durable goods figures were the highlights today from the US economy. "Sales remain incredibly weak but, as with the existing sales numbers, we are prepared to hazard the view that the post-Lehman meltdown is now over and the market is stabilizing," said Ian […]