17 October 2021
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Steve Keen

20 November 2018
Hurricane Housing is on its way

Self-confessed glass half empty economist Professor Steve Keen believes a 40% crash in house prices is entirely within the realms of possibility.

4 March 2010
Declaring victory at half time

Last week I took part in a debate entitled ‘The Great Residential Housing Debate - the next Bubble or a legitimate Boom?’ at the annual conference for Perennial Investment Partners; I put the Bubble case and Chris Joye of Rismark International presented the Boom case (here is my paper and my presentation). As is well-known, Australia is one of the few […]

5 November 2009
It's the leverage, stupid

So I'm walking to Kosciusko--now that the ABS Established House Price Index has cracked its September 2008 peak of 131 to reach an all-time high of 134.4 (as of September one year later). This renewed bubble reversed the trend of falling nominal house prices that had dropped the index to a low of 123.8 in […]

3 November 2009
Walking (and running) to Kosciusko

I’m off to join the rest of the country is losing bets on the Melbourne Cup today, and since it coincides with an important personal event I won’t have time to comment on why I lost part two of Rory Robertson’s two part bet with me on house prices (the main part, a peak to […]

30 October 2009
Happy anniversary Wall Street

If I was asked to nominate the wisest aphorism of all time, Mark Twain’s “History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme” would definitely be one of my top two candidates. On song, today Wall Street is replaying the 1930s, but to a slightly different meter. With the 80th anniversary of the Great Crash of […]

29 September 2009
It's hard being a bear (part six): good alternative theory?

If the economy does in fact recover from the Global Financial Crisis—without private debt levels once again rising relative to GDP—then my approach to economics will be proven wrong. But this won't prove conventional neoclassical economic theory right, because, for very different reasons to those that I put forward, modern neoclassical economics argues that the […]

22 September 2009
It's hard being a bear (part five): rescued?

I’m happy to admit that I underestimated how strongly governments would respond to this financial crisis. Dramatic reductions in interest rates, huge fiscal stimuli and—in the USA and UK—expansion of government-created money, have all had a positive impact on the economy and asset markets (both shares and houses). In his recent essay, Australian Prime Minister […]

14 September 2009
It's hard being a bear (part four): good economic theory

You have just come from your annual medical checkup, where your doctor assures you that you are in robust health. Walking jauntily down the street, you bump into a practitioner of alternative medicine. He takes one look at you and declares: “You have a serious tumour! It must be removed or you will die”. You […]

10 September 2009
The GFC: Pothole or Mountain?

“The Marxian view is that capitalistic economies are inherently unstable and that excessive accumulation of capital will lead to increasingly severe economic crises. Growth theory, which has proved to be empirically successful, says this is not true. “The capitalistic economy is stable, and absent some change in technology or the rules of the economic game, […]

10 September 2009
It's hard being a bear (part three): good economic history

“Green shoots” are appearing everywhere—just read the newspapers, and you can be assured that we’ve turned the corner. Bar the latest rise in US unemployment—up 0.3 per cent to 9.7 per cent, after falling 0.1 per cent the previous month—there’s nothing but good news as far as the eye can see. Unless, that is, you […]

31 August 2009
It's hard being a bear (part two)

One of the reasons I’m still a bear on the economy is because the economists in the optimist camp are relying upon very bad economic theory. If that theory is telling them good times are ahead, that’s one of the best predictors of bad times you could have. This isn’t because the optimists are bad […]

21 August 2009
It's hard being a bear (part one)

I’m happy to admit that it’s very hard to hold a bear perspective, when all about there appear to be “green shoots”, and when according to my body clock it’s still hibernation time. There are, however, four factors that keep me in my lair: Good history Bad economic theory Good economic history Good economic theory. […]

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