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Shane Oliver

9 August 2012
Weekly economic and market update - hang on, help is still on the way!

Headline developments of the past week Both the Fed and the ECB disappointed markets with a lack of immediate action. However, both promise of action to come if needed, so its not nearly as bad as the initial market reaction following their meetings suggests. ECB President Draghi basically confirmed a plan to buy bonds in […]

19 July 2012
Have shares lost their appeal for long term investors?

Key points While rolling ten year periods occasionally see shares lose to bonds and cash, this is rarely the case over 20 year, and has never been the case over 40 year, periods. The high returns from cash and bonds over the last 30 years or so won’t be repeated as starting point yields are […]

29 June 2012
Australian house prices - is the crash upon us?

After the surge in Australian house prices from the mid 1990s into last decade my view was that while the risks of a sharp fall back in house prices were high, the most likely scenario was an extended period of range bound house prices in real terms. If anything most of the surprise has been […]

18 June 2012
Investor signposts - week beginning 17 June 2012

The big picture • If you went back five years ago, and someone told you one of the most anticipated events in 2012 would be an election in Greece, you would have had doubts about their sanity. But so it is. The first Greek election didn’t produce a clean result with no single party or […]

15 June 2012
Greece Q&A

Key points > It is not a foregone conclusion Greece will leave the euro. > The cost of exit would be very high for Greece & Europe.  > The best way to minimise this cost would be to guarantee Euro-zone bank deposits, recapitalise troubled banks and for the ECB to engage in aggressive monetary easing. […]

12 June 2012
Back in the danger zone - deflation, inflation or muddle through

Key points > While the global economy has been ‘muddling through’ in the face of public debt problems over the last few years, this is still the most likely scenario going forward.  > Alternative scenarios involve a return to global recession and/or deflation (as bond markets are factoring in) or a surge in global inflation. […]

4 June 2012
Headline developments for the week ending 3/6/12

Yet again the European debt crisis is spiralling out of control and Euro-zone policy makers are doing what they always do – waiting for everything to go to the brink before acting. Worries that Europe might actually go over the brink combined with soft global economic data, has seen investors head for safety with share […]

28 May 2012
Headline developments for the week ending 27/5/12

 Worries about a Greek exit from the euro remained the focus for investors over the last week. However, with share markets and related risk assets having fallen sharply over the previous three weeks a lot of the bad news has already been factored in, so the past week was far less dramatic in terms of […]

23 May 2012
Q&A on Greek euro exit and implications for the world and Australia

Renewed fear of a disorderly Greek default and exit from the euro has been a major driver of a flight to safety and falls in share markets recently with global shares falling 10.6% from this year’s highs, Asian shares falling 10.9% and Australian shares falling 8.8%. This raises numerous questions this note seeks to address.  […]

13 May 2012
Headline developments of the past week

The “risk off” tone in global financial markets continued over the last week following swings to the left in French, Greek and even German (regional) elections and worries that Spain’s nationalisation of a bank foreshadows more bank bailouts using public funds and hence upwards pressure on its public debt not helped by rumours of imminent […]

9 May 2012
2012-13 Budget - back to surplus. The great fiscal, monetary switch

Key points The Australian Government’s Budget forecasts a $1.5bn surplus for 2012-13, with savings focussed on defence, foreign aid, the public service, large companies and high income earners via a doubling of the contributions tax on super but handouts for low to middle income earners. By sticking to the surplus timetable, the Government will further […]

24 April 2012
Australia - the RBA, the economy and shares

Key points Benign March quarter inflation has cleared the way for a May RBA rate cut – 0.25 per cent is most likely, but 0.5 per cent would be best to ensure a decent cut in mortgage rates. Given global uncertainties, the softness in the economy, borrower caution, a circa $40 billion turnaround in the […]

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