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Shane Oliver

12 October 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 12 October 2012

The correction in global share markets that got underway in mid-September has resumed over the last week fuelled by the failure of the US share market to break above September highs late the previous week, ongoing nervousness as the US September quarter earnings reporting season gets underway and the so called “fiscal cliff” looms closer, […]

5 October 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 5 October 2012

Uncertainty continues regarding Spain and Greece. Spain is resisting applying for assistance for several reasons, including national pride, upcoming regional elections and the fact that 2 year borrowing costs remain affordable below 4 per cent. Our view remains though that ultimately Spain will have no choice but to apply for help, but that uncertainty may […]

4 October 2012
RBA has more to do - how low will the cash rate go?

The need to boost the non-mining sectors of the economy as the mining boom fades at a time when the $A remains strong and fiscal cutbacks are intensifying means the RBA will have to cut interest rates further. Post GFC caution has likely resulted in a reduction in the neutral level for bank lending rates, […]

21 September 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 21 September 2012

Global monetary easing continued over the past week with the Reserve Bank of India cutting banks’ required cash ratios and the Bank of Japan increasing the size of its quantitative easing program and extending it by six months till the end of 2013. The Reserve Bank of India’s easing may in part be a response […]

20 September 2012
3 steps forward, 2 steps back - but Euro-zone risks are receding

The risk of a break up in the Euro-zone peaked in May, and has been declining since as European leaders have opted for “more Europe” and the ECB has committed to do whatever it takes to ensure the euro is irreversible. The Euro-zone debt crisis is a long way from over, and it will be […]

19 September 2012
Q&A on QE3

Open ended quantitative easing (QE3) in the US is likely to continue into 2014. While it can’t solve all America’s problems it should help growth recover to 2.5 per cent in 2013. Notwithstanding inevitable corrections, QE3 is positive for shares, commodities, gold and cyclical stocks. It is likely to result in modest upwards pressure in […]

14 September 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 14 September 2012

The past week has been another good one for investors as various key events that investors had been worrying about have continued to pass with positive outcomes. The big news is that the Fed is commencing open ended quantitative easing (QE3) with the purchase of $40bn worth of mortgage backed securities a month that will […]

3 September 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 31 August 2012

Share markets fell further over the past week in nervous trade ahead of significant event risk over the next few weeks which starts with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s address in Jackson Hole and then shifts to the ECB and Europe. Shares and other risky assets have rallied on the hope of policy action to bring […]

31 August 2012
Is the mining boom over and would it be so bad if it is?

Key points The mining investment boom still has another year or two to go but its peak is starting to come into sight & the best has probably been seen in terms of commodity prices. While there is the risk of a timing mismatch around the end of the investment boom in 2014 and as […]

24 August 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 17 August 2012

Headline developments of the past week There were a number of positives for growth investments over the past week and this has generally seen further gains in shares and a back up in bond yields in major countries. Economic data is generally coming in better than feared, German Chancellor Merkel has backed ECB President Draghi’s […]

20 August 2012
What has gone wrong with Brazil, India and China?

Key points Brazil, India and China have slowed sharply on the back of weakness in advanced countries, the lagged effect of past monetary tightening and structural constraints.
 While their long term growth potential has been reduced a bit, emerging countries still offer better long term growth prospects than Europe, the US and Japan given a […]

16 August 2012
Weekly economic and market update: 10 August 2012

Headline developments of the past week The news on the policy front out of Europe over the past week has been pretty quiet. ECB officials have reaffirmed their determination to act and its clear the ECB has the support of the German Government. What ECB President Draghi has put on the table amounts to a […]

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