15 April 2021
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Shane Oliver

5 November 2012
Weekly market and economic update - 2 November 2012

US markets were closed early in the week due to Hurricane Sandy. Our thoughts are with all of those affected. From an economic perspective, rough estimates suggest around $US40-50bn in property and infrastructure damage. This is bigger than Tropical Storm Irene last year but far less than Katrina in 2005 which cost $US113bn. Disruption to […]

26 October 2012
Weekly market and economic update - 26 October 2012

More of the same over the past week with mixed news on profits, nervousness over the US “fiscal cliff” and no resolution regarding Spain and Greece seeing the correction in global shares continue. The good news is that credit markets haven’t confirmed the weakness in shares and nor has the $A which has remained strong. […]

25 October 2012
Investment cycles - why they matter?

Like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel, Never ending or beginning, on an ever spinning wheel. As the images unwind, like the circles that you find, In the windmills of your mind. A. Bergman, M.Bergman, M.Legrand, The Windmills of Your Mind Key points Cyclical fluctuations in investment returns are particularly […]

19 October 2012
Weekly market and economic update - 19 October 2012

Headline developments of the past week Signs that global growth has bottomed continue to build: Chinese economic growth rose to 2.2 per cent in the September quarter and indicators for retail sales, industrial production, investment, money supply and exports accelerated in September; US housing and retail sales data suggest that growth there may be picking […]

18 October 2012
The US election

The November 6 US Presidential election has more significance than usual given the policy differences between the two candidates and urgent need to reduce the “fiscal cliff” that will be reached on January 1. Ultimately the “fiscal cliff” is likely to be averted, helping a continuation of the rising trend in shares, but uncertainty around […]

12 October 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 12 October 2012

The correction in global share markets that got underway in mid-September has resumed over the last week fuelled by the failure of the US share market to break above September highs late the previous week, ongoing nervousness as the US September quarter earnings reporting season gets underway and the so called “fiscal cliff” looms closer, […]

5 October 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 5 October 2012

Uncertainty continues regarding Spain and Greece. Spain is resisting applying for assistance for several reasons, including national pride, upcoming regional elections and the fact that 2 year borrowing costs remain affordable below 4 per cent. Our view remains though that ultimately Spain will have no choice but to apply for help, but that uncertainty may […]

4 October 2012
RBA has more to do - how low will the cash rate go?

The need to boost the non-mining sectors of the economy as the mining boom fades at a time when the $A remains strong and fiscal cutbacks are intensifying means the RBA will have to cut interest rates further. Post GFC caution has likely resulted in a reduction in the neutral level for bank lending rates, […]

21 September 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 21 September 2012

Global monetary easing continued over the past week with the Reserve Bank of India cutting banks’ required cash ratios and the Bank of Japan increasing the size of its quantitative easing program and extending it by six months till the end of 2013. The Reserve Bank of India’s easing may in part be a response […]

20 September 2012
3 steps forward, 2 steps back - but Euro-zone risks are receding

The risk of a break up in the Euro-zone peaked in May, and has been declining since as European leaders have opted for “more Europe” and the ECB has committed to do whatever it takes to ensure the euro is irreversible. The Euro-zone debt crisis is a long way from over, and it will be […]

19 September 2012
Q&A on QE3

Open ended quantitative easing (QE3) in the US is likely to continue into 2014. While it can’t solve all America’s problems it should help growth recover to 2.5 per cent in 2013. Notwithstanding inevitable corrections, QE3 is positive for shares, commodities, gold and cyclical stocks. It is likely to result in modest upwards pressure in […]

14 September 2012
Weekly market and economic update: 14 September 2012

The past week has been another good one for investors as various key events that investors had been worrying about have continued to pass with positive outcomes. The big news is that the Fed is commencing open ended quantitative easing (QE3) with the purchase of $40bn worth of mortgage backed securities a month that will […]

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