21 October 2020
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Ron Bewley

12 January 2011
Quant Quarterly - predictions for the 2011 market

Big picture Welcome to Woodhall’s first ‘General Advice’ piece. The Quant Quarterly has not been designed to be readable. It is a statement in what Woodhall believes. If you persevere, I am sure you will get out of this what you need. If you prefer, you may read our other, more ‘reader-friendly’ pieces. But the […]

21 October 2010
Does this rally have legs?

The US just experienced the best market rally for the month of September since 1939. We followed suit. Can this rally keep going? Is a correction inevitable? Only a fool would rule out a correction or worse at any time. The question I pose is better stated more formally in three parts. Has recent market […]

23 September 2010
Charting Aussie fear

Today the ASX launched its S&P ASX VIX index, which measures implied option price volatility on the S&P ASX 200. The ‘Aussie VIX’ methodology matches, to some reasonable extent, the VIX index of the US-based S&P 500. The VIX has long been dubbed the ‘Fear Index’. Woodhall Investment Research has its own fear index – […]

22 September 2010
Turn up the volume?

We hear from the media on a daily basis that there is low-volume trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Low volumes show lack of investor commitment. Lack of commitment in turn means rallies don’t last for long and push to the upside through perceived barriers. There is no doubt that trading in the US […]

2 August 2010
All that glisters isn't gold

 We are constantly being bombarded by commentators telling us that gold is a safe investment option. It is a store of value, inflation-proof, a wise investment ... or is it? I thought it time to look for myself and analyse the data without all of the hype. To my surprise, historically, gold has not been […]

25 June 2010
Vale Kevin

I had been waiting for some news to update my column on this site. Last month I said it was too hard to call the market without more clarity on the RSPT (resource tax). Well, we got that yesterday morning in spades. Kevin was shown the red card and Julia scored in injury time only […]

24 May 2010
Up or down? A cold hard look at the facts

Sitting at home on a cold, damp Sunday afternoon (23 May), last Friday seems less scary than it felt on the day. The dust has settled and the S&P 500 finished strongly that night. But everyone wants to know what tomorrow will bring. It is always extremely difficult to come up with a short-term prediction […]

7 May 2010
An international comparison of fear

I have been fascinated with measuring the level ‘fear’ in stock markets ever since my holiday in England in January 2008. While I was back home for a month, the stock market (S&P/ASX200) plummeted from around 6000 to not much above 5000 only to return briefly to above 6000 before lunch on 4 February 2008. […]

14 April 2010
Forecasting market returns is the easy bit

As a stock-market watcher, I am often asked where the index (S&P/ASX200) will be at the end of the year. This probably seems a reasonable question to the interviewer but it makes a statistician uncomfortable and evasive. Please let me explain. At the end of my interview with Peter Switzer on Switzer TV he asked me […]

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