20 November 2019
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Good morning, Australia

Craig James
3 June 2019

How’dy USA

In US data, personal income rose by 0.5% in April (forecast +0.3%) with spending up 0.3% (forecast +0.2%). The core personal consumption deflator (inflation measure) rose 0.2% to be up 1.6% on the year, in line with forecasts. The Chicago purchasing managers index rose from 52.6 to 54.2 in May (forecast 53.7). Consumer sentiment rose from 97.2 to 100 in May (forecast 101.5).

US share markets fell on Friday after President Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico. The 5% proposed tariff from June 10 would rise to 25% unless illegal Mexican immigration to the US stopped. Auto stocks slumped. The Dow Jones index lost 355 points or 1.4%. The S&P500 index fell by 1.3% and the Nasdaq lost 115 points or 1.5%. Over the week the Dow Jones fell by 3%, the S&P 500 lost 2.6% and the Nasdaq fell by 2.4%. Over the month the Dow lost 6.7%; S&P fell 6.6% and Nasdaq fell 7.9%

US treasuries rose on Friday (yields lower) on fresh concerns about global trade. US 2-year yields fell by 15 points to near 1.92% and US 10-year yields fell by 9 points to 2.13%. Over the week, US 2-year yields fell by 23 points and US 10-year yields fell by 19 points.

Bonjour Europe

European share markets were weaker on Friday. US President Trump threatened to impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods on June 10 unless Mexico stopped people from crossing illegally to the US. The pan-European STOXX600 index fell by 0.8% to be down 5.7% on the month - the biggest fall since January 2016. The UK FTSE also fell by 0.8% and the German Dax lost 1.5%. In London trade, shares of Rio Tinto fell by 2.3% and BHP lost 1.4%.

Hello World

Major currencies were firmer against the US dollar in US and European trade compared with the end of Asian trade. The Euro rose from near US$1.1125 to around US$1.1180 and was around US$1.1165 in late US trade. The Aussie dollar rose from near US69.00 cents to US69.45 cents and was at US69.40 cents in late US trade. And the Japanese yen rose from near 109.00 yen per US dollar to JPY108.25 and was near the strongest levels in late US trade.

Global oil prices fell sharply as fresh trade worries raised concerns about the outlook for the global economy and oil demand. The number of oil rigs in the US rose by three to 800. Higher Saudi and US output in May offset lower Iranian exports. The Brent crude price fell by US$2.38 or 3.6% to US$64.49 a barrel. And the US Nymex fell by US$3.09 or 5.5% to US$53.50 a barrel. Over the week Brent crude fell by 6.1% and Nymex fell by 8.7%

Base metal prices were generally lower on the London Metal Exchange on Friday. Zinc and nickel fell by around 1.5%. But aluminium rose by 0.9% and lead rose 0.2%. Over the week prices fell by 1.1-3.9% with tin down the most. But aluminium rose by 0.1%.

The gold futures price rose by US$18.70 an ounce or 1.4% to $1,311.10 an ounce. The spot gold price was trading near US$1,305 an ounce in late US trade. Over the week gold rose by US$26.90 or 2.1%. Iron ore fell by US$1.90 or 1.9% to US$99.80 a tonne. Over the week iron ore fell by US$3.85 or 3.7%.

G’day Australia

In Australia the ANZ job ads series is released with the monthly inflation gauge, Business Indicators, purchasing manager surveys and CoreLogic home price series. In China the Caixin manufacturing survey is released. In the US data on vehicle sales, construction and the ISM manufacturing survey are released.

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