22 November 2019
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Friday I have Monday on my mind

Craig James
28 September 2018

Monday mornin' feels so bad

The calendar clicks over from September to October next Monday – the scary thing being that there is less than three months to Christmas. In the coming week, the Reserve Bank Board meets and retail trade and building approvals data are released with international trade. The week kicks-off on Monday when CoreLogic releases the Home Value index. Also Commonwealth Bank/Markit and Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) release their separate purchasing manager indexes (PMI) for the manufacturing sector. Based on the daily data, home prices probably fell by around 0.4% in September, with Hobart and Brisbane prices out-performing other capital cities. Capital city home prices similarly fell by 0.4% in August. The AiGroup PMI rose from 52.0 points to 56.7 in August. And the CBA/Markit PMI rose from 52.4 points to 53.2 in August. Both readings were above 50 points, indicating that the manufacturing sector is expanding.

Coming Tuesday this looks better

The Reserve Bank Board meets but no change in rates is expected for the 26th straight month. Also the regular weekly reading on consumer confidence is published by ANZ and Roy Morgan.

Wednesday just won’t grow

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release data on dwelling approvals – approvals of building applications by local councils. Council approvals to build new homes fell by 5.2% in July to be down 5.6% over the year. Also the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) release the VFACTS report on new vehicle sales. And Commonwealth Bank/Markit and AiGroup release their separate survey results of purchasing managers in the services sector. And new vehicle sales in Australia dropped 1.5% on the same month in 2017, with new registrations totalling 95,221 units.

Thursday goes too slow

The ABS release the August international trade data – the export and import figures for the month. The trade surplus eased from $1,937 million in June to $1,551 million in July. It was the 12th surplus in 15 months. The rolling annual surplus rose from $6.219 billion to $7.408 billion.

I got Friday on my mind

The ABS release the August data on retail trade or sales while AiGroup releases the Performance of Construction index. Retail trade was flat in July after rising 1.3% in the previous three months. Annual spending growth rose from 2.8% to 2.9%.

US jobs data hogs limelight

The monthly jobs data in the US (non-farm payrolls) is generally regarded as the pre-eminent monthly indicator. And it is released on Friday in the coming week. There are also various ‘top shelf’ indicators to watch.

The week kicks off on Monday in the US with the release of the ISM purchasing managers index for manufacturing and data on construction spending. The ISM PMI stands at a 14-year high of 61.3.

On Tuesday, the September data on new vehicle sales will be issued. And on the same day, the regular weekly data on chain store sales are also released.

On Wednesday, the ISM PMI for services is issued – a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector. On the same day the regular weekly data on new mortgage applications is also issued. The ISM services PMI stood at 58.5 in August – well above a reading of 50, signifying expansion. Little change is expected in September.

On Thursday, in the US the Challenger report on planned job cuts is released, Data on factory orders is also issued. And there is the regular weekly data on new claims for unemployment insurance.

Employers announced job cuts of 38,427 in August, the most since March. Factory orders may have risen 0.9 per cent in August after a 0.8% fall in July.

On Friday, in the US, the non-farm payrolls report (employment and unemployment) is issued for the month of September. And on the same day, the August readings on exports and imports (international trade) are also released.

The US job market is strong. In August, employment rose by 201,000 – a record 95th consecutive lift in jobs. Unemployment stood at 3.9 per cent (just above 18-year lows) and annual growth of wages stood at a 9-year high of 2.9 per cent. Economists tip a 185,000 lift in jobs in September with the jobless rate down to 3.8%. But the wage data may get most interest. A further solid lift in hourly earnings would point to further rate hikes ahead as well as a firmer US dollar (or greenback).

And the US trade deficit may have edged higher from $50.1 billion to $50.2 billion in August.

In China, the coming week kicks off on Sunday (September 30) when official purchasing manager index (PMI) results for both manufacturing are services sectors are scheduled. The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 points in August, up from 51.2 points in July, remaining above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for a 25th straight month. After these data releases, the next figures aren’t due until Monday October 8.

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