Virgin Australia is coming back to the share market: here's what the new chapter could mean

It is finally happening. After five years of being a private company, Virgin Australia will relist on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on June 24. The company is expected to raise A$685 million through the initial public offering (IPO).

So, who will benefit from Virgin Australia’s return to the share market? Having paid $3.5 billion for the bankrupt carrier back in 2020, private equity firm Bain Capital will be the most immediate winner.

Earlier this year, Bain had sold 25% of the company to Qatar Airways. Now, with the IPO, Bain will reduce its stake from about 70% down to 40%. Most of the $685 million raised will go straight to Bain.

With Virgin’s anticipated market capitalisation close to $2.3 billion and enterprise value of reportedly up to $3.6 billion, it is now evident that Bain has – with Jayne Hrdlicka at the helm of the airline – not only managed to turn the company around, but to also profit nicely from doing so.

Without Bain’s rescue at the beginning of the pandemic (which was catastrophic for airlines globally), the situation may have become quite detrimental for travellers. It also avoided having the Australian taxpayer foot the bill for a bailout.

Will the airline’s customers be better off after this? It will depend on how much, if anything, Bain chooses to reinvest in Virgin after this share offering is over. But Virgin has also recorded substantial recent profits, some of which are expected to be spent on newer aircraft and improved services.

Stronger competition for Qantas?

Looking at the strategies of both Virgin Australia and its biggest competitor, Qantas, in recent years, it seems both have learned to love playing the duopoly game.

Based on our own calculations, Virgin controls roughly 33% of Australia’s domestic seat capacity and the Qantas group (which includes Jetstar) much of the rest on the country’s core flight network. The ACCC also backs this up with its quarterly observations on the market.

In the 2010s, the two airlines were out-competing themselves in adding capacity to the market, which drove down yields (or revenue per passenger) and nearly killed Virgin Australia 1.0.

Now, Qantas and Virgin have new chief executives who understand both airlines can be very profitable if they show some (capacity) discipline in how many seats they create and sell.

Better services

For that reason, it’s likely not much will change in terms of competition, at least in the domestic market. But this is only true as far as capacity is concerned.

It seems reasonable to assume Virgin’s recent profits and any funds from the capital raise will only be used to support future growth if it is profitable. The majority of the profits will likely go towards fleet renewal and improvement of the airline’s product.

For consumers, this wouldn’t necessarily mean lower airfares in the domestic market. But it would mean newer aircraft and enhanced services, which is a positive for both flyers and the environment.

International departures

Virgin Australia will become a more formidable competitor to Qantas, thanks to its newly formed relationship with international partner Qatar Airways and the additional cash from relisting.

It will be interesting to observe what Qatar will do next and whether a new player – perhaps Singapore Airlines – will enter the scene and take a stake in the airline once Virgin Australia is trading publicly again.

It would not be the first time an international airline has taken a stake in Virgin Australia, and could create some interesting dynamics.

Another beneficiary is Virgin Australia’s management team, who’ve been somewhat shackled by the priority of getting the IPO off the ground. The IPO will free up management to deploy resources towards more longer-term priorities.

Many will see a significant payday – it’s estimated staff are sitting on shares that could soon collectively be worth $180 million.

Why now?

Bain Capital has timed this IPO carefully. Virgin Australia has (in tandem with Qantas) produced a stellar financial performance in the last financial year. It may deliver an even better one in the current reporting period.

To maximise returns, it is likely Bain did not want to waste the opportunity to capitalise on the moment. Global markets are still full of volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. What may diminish is the financial performance of the core business Bain Capital is trying to sell.

At $2.90 a share, Virgin Australia will have a price-to-earnings ratio (used to assess how relatively expensive a share price is) of seven times its expected earnings this financial year. This is lower than Qantas’ ratio of ten times expected earnings this financial year.

Profits are likely to remain high this year, with continuing strong demand, high yields and low jet fuel prices. The brokers and underwriting investment banks will use this to sell the story.

IPOs can sometimes deliver those already holding shares in a company significant day-one windfall profits. In this case, however, Bain’s expertise in the venture capital market means it is unlikely to leave any money on the table.

One may also argue while Virgin appears to be priced at a discount compared to Qantas, there may be legitimate reasons for the price differential, such as Qantas’ very profitable loyalty business.

Given uncertainties around demand and geopolitical tensions, there is no guarantee the share price of Qantas will remain at record highs for too long, which means the opportunity to present Virgin shares as a bargain may be short-lived.

In the long term, it is widely agreed airlines are by definition volatile investments and not necessarily something the average investor should have in their portfolio.

Moving forward

Symbolically, the decision for Virgin to use a new stock ticker – VGN instead of the old VAH – may avoid bringing back bad memories.

Five years can be a lifetime in aviation, but maybe not to bond holders who got just 10 cents in the dollar and shareholders (including the large airline partners who held equity stakes) who got nothing when the airline collapsed in 2020.

From a strategy perspective, it will be important for management to avoid history repeating itself with international airlines buying into Virgin and securing board seats.

This can be one way of influencing the strategy of the carrier’s domestic arm to funnel more passengers to their own international flights.

It is positive, for both Virgin Australia and the Australian aviation industry, that Bain Capital appears set to pull this off and that the revitalised airline is now truly Virgin Australia 2.0.


The Conversation

Rico Merkert, Professor in Transport and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Qantas and Virgin's true market supremacy revealed by ACCC

Thought the domestic aviation market was a two-horse race in 2024? As the ACCC reports, in 2025 it’s way worse than you think.

Back in 2023, Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers asked the ACCC to keep a watchful eye on the skies. The government asked it to make sure as tourism started taking off again that the airlines weren’t price gouging. Enter the Domestic Airline Competition Report, which is a quarterly update of the watchdog’s findings. 

According to the ACCC’s latest report released today, there’s not a whole lot of competition going on in the skies above our great nation. Qantas Group (made up of Qantas, Jetstar and QantasLink) and the Bain Capital-owned Virgin Australia, now account for a staggering 94.4% of all domestic passenger carriage. The Qantas Group alone holds over 60% of the market.  

Virgin, boosted by the collapse of Bonza and the retreat of Rex from capital city routes, has lifted its share to 34.4% as of March 2025.

Those figures reflect more than just strong demand for travel. It’s the result of a year that saw the cascading failures of smaller players in the domestic carriage market. 

That dominance isn’t just reflected in passenger numbers—it shows up on the balance sheet. Qantas posted $1.5 billion in EBIT in the first half of FY2024–25, with $916 million coming from domestic flying. Virgin, while private under Bain Capital, confirmed record profits during the same period.

Jetstar, which is now Australia’s only low-cost carrier, saw its earnings jump 53.7% year-on-year to $269 million. With no other budget competitor in the market, its margins have expanded alongside its market share.

The ACCC warns that this level of consolidation isn’t just a matter of good corporate performance. It has pretty serious implications for prices, service, and consumer choice.

“Jetstar has been able to capitalise on the continued absence of competitive pressure,” said ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey.

And that absence may not change anytime soon. 

Bonza’s crash out of the Australian market in April 2024 marked the second failed attempt at a third domestic player in a decade. Meanwhile, Rex has largely returned to its regional roots, operating with government backing as it navigates voluntary administration.

Despite seasonal swings in demand and weather disruptions in March, airfares are still up compared to historical norms. The ACCC noted that while fares dropped in early 2025, they had risen again by 9.6% in March—a pattern that may become familiar in a low-competition environment.

The market may be moving, but it’s not opening up. And for investors watching Qantas and Virgin’s grip on the skies, the story now is about how long they can hold altitude before competition returns, or regulators intervene.

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How to enjoy Australia’s finest dining for less

A RECENT publicity lunch at a Sydney restaurant celebrated the longevity of a business that helps restauranteurs attract those who love eating out. It was fitting that this momentous occasion that hailed the work of the Entertainment Group was held at one of Sydney’s best restaurants, Catalina, in Rose Bay.

While most Australians probably don’t know the well-named Entertainment Group, they’d certainly know about their famous book that listed thousands of restaurants, and, in doing so, provided discounted price experiences that benefitted both customers and business owners.

But these weren’t the only beneficiaries of this innovative business that was conceived in the US. Over the past 30 years, the Entertainment Group has raised an incredible $110 million for local charities.

The funds were raised from the involvement of over 15,000 unique businesses, comprising a number of Australia’s most prestigious eateries including ESQ, Glass Brasserie, NEL, Pilu, Pony Dining, Public Dining Room, Ormeggio, Berowra Waters Inn and Din Tai Fung.

One prominent charity to enjoy the support from The Entertainment Group is the McGrath Foundation, with McGrath co-founder Tracy Bevan (and a close friend of the late Jane McGrath) singing the praises of this restaurant guide business. Along with the generosity of others, the contributions of The Entertainment Group have helped provide the funding that has produced wonderful results for women challenged by breast cancer. “We have 233 breast care nurses so are well on our way to our goal,” she told attendees at Catalina. “I remember when we were setting the foundation up, Jane said ‘If I could help just one family’ — I can imagine her great big smile at the knowledge that we’ve so far helped 143,000 families.”

 

 

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To other pluses, according to the company’s number crunchers, “the average family saves over $960 per year using their Entertainment Membership…” — and in some offers, diners could get up to 50 per cent off at a number of premium restaurants.

At a time when eateries are feeling the backwash from 13 interest rate rises and their impact on recreational spending, these discounts provided by The Entertainment Group are timely. For those not feeling the economic pinch, this guide is now a subscription digital offering and the company’s CEO Heidi Halson thinks the business model “…is a community-building service that brings together the best dining experiences, travel, shopping and entertainment for a ‘quid quo pro’ arrangement that both raises critical funding and allows Australian people to discover new spots.”

Halson loves the fact that her business not only helps diners in tough times but adds support to restaurant businesses. All up, it helps create a “dining with a conscience” experience.

An expert guide to staycationing in Perth and Fremantle

WHAT IS IT about Western Australia? Is it the sunset over the water (Perth’s sunset was recently credited as being the ninth most beautiful in the world), the vast coastline offering a myriad of aquatic experiences, the ever-increasing sophistication of its cities, or the largely untamed landscape? Perhaps there are too many reasons to narrow down to just one.

If you’re tired of enduring the 20-plus hours flying overseas for a holiday or simply desperate to avoid long queues at foreign customs desks, then maybe traversing the western side of this massive island of ours is a way to not only understand this country of ours better, but to have ‘no worries’ about the foreign exchange imbalance every time you buy something, or the exhausting after effects of jet lag after having had such a relaxing European experience.

Western Australia, our biggest state, should be high on your list of options for your next escape. Its capital city Perth might be described as the most remote city on the planet, but along with its coastal cousin, Fremantle, the offerings to a traveller are on par with some of best tourist destinations in the world.

How do I spend a day in Fremantle?

Once off the plane in Perth, take a car to Fremantle, a port town that was once the bastion of strong unions, which explains why the city’s AFL team is called the Dockers. Founded in 1829 (six years before Melbourne) and located at the mouth of the Swan River, the city was the first settlement in WA.

Its trade union roots and an unwillingness to give into what some might have called ‘progress’ meant that the architecture of this city is classic colonial, Victorian and Federation — strolling down the city streets is like being on the sets of Bridgerton or The Gilded Age, for those partial to a period drama. Grand buildings mix in with warehouses converted into restaurants, distilleries, galleries and all manner of hospitality destinations.

For history buffs seeking a unique experience, stay a night or two at The Warders Hotel. These historic limestone cottages were the warders’ homes for the world heritage-listed Fremantle Prison, and have since been reimagined as a boutique hotel in the middle of the city. Fremantle Prison itself was included on the National Heritage List in 2005, and was the first WA site and the 13th national site listed alongside icons such as the Sydney Opera House, Port Arthur Historic Site and the Royal Exhibition Building in Melbourne.

There are many diversions in Fremantle for the holiday-hungry traveller. Everywhere you turn, you encounter culinary delights that you’ll find hard to forget. This is a bookshop lover’s town and if you’re into vinyl LPs or Indigenous art, you’ll be captivated by what’s on sale for the artistic holiday-goer.

Vin Populi

After a day of getting to know the old-world streets and shops of Fremantle, your first night out should be a visit to the Italian restaurant Vin Populi. Located in a heritage building in High Street, the chef is from Lazio (the Italian region where Rome resides), while the manager is Tuscan-born. The owners, Emma Ferguson and Dan Morris, have a history of creating incomparable Italian eateries with their Perth-based restaurants No Mafia and Balthazar being cases in point. The exposed plaster walls, mosaic-tiled floors, softly fluttering linen valance curtains, charming yet timeless furniture oozes authentic Italian vibes, and the food unique yet quintessentially Italiano.

If you’re a brunch enthusiast, the appropriately named Moore & Moore Café‘s more-than-ample servings mean you’d be very unlikely to ask for seconds. Everything from the hearty sourdough toast to the smashed avocado squeezed between the smoked salmon or bacon means this is a breakfast sure to amply fuel the rest of the day’s adventures.

More walking is essential after stomaching the fare at Moore & Moore, and when that’s done, you could do worse than lining up for an eye-opening tour of the Republic of Freemantle distillery in one of Fremantle’s classic warehouses, where you’ll learn that these almighty stainless steel and copper vats take wine and turn it into vodka, which is then turned into gin. And for your ‘sins’, you’ll get to test and taste the different gins and vodka that this internationally-awarded distillery produces. Even as a non-gin or vodka drinker, your taste buds will thank you for the experience.

Republic of Fremantle Distillery

This certainly is a business that’s going places, with the Republic of Fremantle Full Bodied Gin named the Best International Contemporary Gin at the 2021 American Distilling Institute Awards, becoming the first ‘from scratch’ grape base spirit to take out the Best in Category for International Contemporary Gin. Meanwhile, its Signature Vodka became the first Australian Vodka to receive the prestigious Double Gold in the history of the Awards.

Powered by a taste or two of the gin and vodka, take lunch at the famous Kallis Fishmarket Café, where there’s no end of seafood to whet your appetite. This must be one of the world’s most impressive fish eateries. After savouring some red emperor and the mandatory chips, the most sensible strategy is to stroll through Fremantle’s Markets — but the best tip is to hit this place once you’ve worked up a bit more of an appetite, because the variety and quality of the food at these markets is tummy-rumbling.

Nearby is the UNESCO-listed Fremantle Prison. The tour of this World Heritage jail, which paints a picture of extreme hardship for the poor convicts who were sent by the British to the struggling settlement in 1850, because workers were needed to make the town work.

For a final escape in Fremantle, try an evening meal in the highly rated and popular innovative restaurant called Nieuw Ruin, where chef Blaze Young cooks outside the square.

Fremantle Markets

Fremantle Markets

Fremantle Prison

How do I spend a day in Perth?

Pulling up stumps, you couldn’t do much better for a place to stay than the Como Treasury, a 48-room contemporary luxury hotel buried in the state buildings from the mid-19th century. (If you love the idea of afternoon tea straight from a BBC period film, definitely add Como Treasury to your travel diary.)

For those keen to know about Perth’s natural surrounds and its Indigenous heritage (the land is known by its original owners as Boorloo), a visit to King’s Park and a Djurandi Dreaming tour with Wadjuk man Justin Martin, a qualified tour guide and Aboriginal artworks specialist, is an essential education experience.

And if education is your go, make sure you get to the WA Museum Boola Bardip, whichfor over 120 years has been making the State’s natural and social heritage accessible and engaging. This is a museum in a state that arguably has the greatest mining resources and therefore the most enthralling geological stories you could ever imagine. This is a place where you can actually touch a meteorite.

Como The Treasury

Como The Treasury

If you need a swim or a meal after a day’s touring, then swan out to Cottesloe Beach where you can savour the delicious food of Latin America at Indigo Oscar.

Of course, delicious food is not all WA offers for your savouring: The state also has some of the highest-rated wineries in the country. Forty-five minutes from Perth, Mandoon Estate must be one of the best put-together vineyard-meets-hospitality ventures you’ll ever see. And yes, the wine is worth the very easy car drive from Perth to these ‘easy on the eye’ fields of drinking joy.

If you want to finish off the day with a sampling of the rich produce of the Swan Valley, slip into Old Young’s Kitchen, where the menu — on the chef’s own admission — is “both thoughtful and thought-provoking”. And their gin and vodka is worth a sampling too, in case you needed convincing.

Mandoon Estate

Como Metropolitan is the lush hotel for curious Londoners

IF YOU really want to dive into London life by walking the historic streets of this unique city, basing yourself at a hotel like the Como Metropolitan is a smart move.

Located in Mayfair’s famous Park Lane (which many have tried to ‘buy’ when playing the board game Monopoly), rooms at the “Met,” as it’s affectionately known, have views over the extensive fields of Hyde Park, one of London’s Royal Parks established by King Henry V111 in 1536 for use as a hunting ground. The parklands now form a majestic chain of over 700 acres, where you can stroll, run, cycle, horse ride or even, if you’re lucky, catch a concert — and there have been many held by the likes of The Rolling Stones, Paul McCartney, Bob Geldorf, Pink Floyd, Elton John and Eric Clapton, to name a few).

Buckingham Palace, the lively Soho, the crowds of Piccadilly and the high-end shops and restaurants of Mayfair are all within walking distance of the Met hotel, while the shops of Oxford Street and the debaters of the renowned Hyde Park Corner are on your doorstep.

While historically well-placed, Como Metropolitan is anything but old fashioned. With its décor tagged as ‘hip’ and minimalist, Como’s rooms are über cool, tech-savvy and bright, aesthetically telling you it’s a new-age hotel experience, while delivering what would be expected of high-end accommodation.

Shopping addicts will love the nearby fashionable shops of Mayfair, Bond Street, Belgravia and Knightsbridge, while the ubiquitous corner pubs are great to frequent when a glass of bubbles or a cool pint break is needed before heading back to Como’s in-house Japanese-Peruvian restaurant Nobu. Nobu is an “in” place for food in London — but best to book in advance if you want to experience the cuisine and ambience of this top-notch eatery and nightspot. Although, Met guests do get priority bookings, just if you need anymore reasons to stay there!

And there are Asian touches from a hotel that had its birthplace in Singapore (Como hotels were founded by Mrs Christina Ong) so the bright white zen-like lobby, the rock garden in the penthouse suite, shiatsu and Thai massages are hardly surprising. A further addition for good food lovers is the healthy in-room dining that includes Shambhala cuisine, which focuses on a menu of raw and cooked ingredients, all inspired by Mrs Ong’s passion for nutritionally-balanced food.

The Met houses 144 rooms, suites and 19 private residences. Click here for more information and booking.