The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has ended the year with a steady hand, keeping the cash rate at 3.6% at its final meeting of 2025. The decision was widely expected, but the real story is in the statement by the monetary policy board and what it reveals about the RBA’s thinking for next year.

The RBA acknowledged inflation has become more complicated. While price pressures have eased significantly since the 2022 peak, the bank noted inflation “has picked up more recently”. It said the latest data:

suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring.

In short, rate cuts are off the table for now.

A recovering economy

At the same time, the broader economy is healing. Growth has strengthened in recent months, particularly in private demand, and the housing market remains firm.

The RBA highlighted that “economic activity continues to recover”, reflecting firmer spending and investment. But the labour market, while still tight, is gradually losing momentum.

Together, these crosscurrents give the RBA reason to stay put.

Why the RBA stayed put

Today’s decision reflects two forces pulling in opposite directions.

Inflation is still too high and has been rising in recent months. Services inflation has been sticky. Cutting rates now would risk undoing the progress made over the past two years.

But the economy isn’t strong enough to justify a hike either. Private demand has improved, but households remain under pressure, discretionary spending is weak, and hiring has softened. A rate rise now could stall the recovery.

With these pressures pulling in different directions, the RBA has chosen patience. The central bank wants more information from upcoming inflation reports, wages data early next year, and labour market conditions before making its next move.

What’s changed — and why it matters

The tone of today’s statement is cautious. The RBA emphasised “the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside,” but balanced that by noting it will “update its view of the outlook as the data evolve”.

The bank also stressed it is approaching the outlook with care:

The board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions.

This is deliberate neutrality. In recent weeks, some economists had suggested the RBA might lean toward a rate hike, but today’s comments avoid signalling a bias towards higher rates.

A hike remains a risk — especially if inflation continues to rise — but it is not the central scenario.

That neutrality matters. The RBA is telling us it wants to see how the data evolves before committing to a direction.

This is important for shaping expectations ahead of 2026. Talk of an rate increase early in the new year appears premature based on today’s language.

What markets and banks expect

Australia’s big four banks all expect an extended period of steady rates, with no move until at least May 2026.

Markets are broadly in the same camp, pricing in a long pause ahead of at least one rate increase by the end of 2026.

Crucially, none of the major banks are forecasting a near-term hike. Their central view is that the RBA will hold for a long stretch.

Westpac is the only one expecting a cut — and even then, only if inflation makes more convincing progress. Taken together, this reinforces the message in today’s statement: policy is leaning neither toward tightening nor easing.

The bigger picture

Australia is not alone in navigating this kind of mixed economic picture. The US Federal Reserve has cut rates twice this year — in September and again in October. However, those moves have been cautious because inflation in the US remains a concern.

The RBA said uncertainty in the global economy “remains significant”, but it also added there has been little impact on growth or on trade with Australia’s major trading partners.

Looking toward 2026

Today’s “no change” decision sets up next year’s discussion. Inflation is still too high to cut rates, but growth is too soft to hike. That leaves the RBA likely to stay patient well into 2026.

The key question for early next year is whether services inflation finally begins to ease. If it does, attention will turn to when rate cuts might become possible. If it doesn’t, the risk of another hike will grow — but again, this is not the RBA’s central scenario today.

For now, the RBA ends the year in steady, watchful mode. Stability, rather than movement, is the story — and it’s likely to stay that way until the data offers a clearer signal.

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

An extensive government review of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2023 made 51 specific recommendations to enable “an RBA fit for the future”. But the narrow terms of reference confined the review to an economic lens.

The failure to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy setting through a demographic lens has resulted in an RBA which is no longer fit for purpose.

The Reserve Bank has just one policy tool – the setting of official interest rates – to manage the economy and achieve its twin goals of:

• low and stable inflation
• full employment.

From a demographic perspective, the reality is that a large and growing proportion of the population is retired, with tax-free income thanks to superannuation and secure home ownership. They are immune to interest rate changes and may actually be fuelling inflation because their spending is not affected by interest rate rises.

A changing nation

After the second world war, Australia transformed economically and socially, driven by industrialisation, social movements and education reform, building on the foundations for a modern welfare state.

Demographic change was also underway. These transformations led to a sustained period of economic growth and wealth accumulation for many, but not all, Australians. The Reserve Bank of Australia was established by an act of parliament in 1959.

Australia was relatively young, economically and demographically. A larger proportion of the population was either school age or working age (15 to 64 years). Rising levels of education and workforce participation meant stronger economic growth, rising incomes and wealth accumulation.

In the post-war years, home ownership became the “great Australian dream”. The post-war baby boom continued until 1971. As a result, the working age population continued to increase until it peaked in 2010.

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The great Australian dream

By the 1990s, a large proportion of the population held mortgages. So changes in official interest rates flowed straight through to households. The Reserve Bank’s main policy tool was highly effective.

Over half (54.2%) of those born between 1947 and 1951 were home owners by the time they were 25 to 29 years old, increasing to 77.8% by the time they were 45 to 49 years at the 1996 census and 81.9% by 2021, aged 70 to 74 years.

Now, the post-war baby boomers are in retirement, or close to it. They have very high levels of home ownership, and so their spending patterns are mostly immune to interest rate changes.

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When RBA moves had bite

High levels of home ownership and exposure to interest rates meant the RBA could meaningfully manage the economy by shaping household spending and business investment.

Critically, home ownership is one of three pillars of Australia’s retirement system, alongside compulsory superannuation introduced in the 1990s and the age pension.

Baby boomers reached their peak earnings capacity as the super system matured and also benefited from strong asset price growth. Those born before 1960 could access super pensions from age 55. Now in retirement phase, they receive guaranteed, tax-free income streams.

This tax-free income has further helped to insulate their spending from interest rate moves.

An ageing population

By 2024, the number of Australians aged 65 or older had increased by 437% since 1960 and 85.2% since 1992, according to calculations based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

And the majority are homeowners. According to the 2021 Census, 61.9% of Australians aged 60 or older owned their homes outright, 16.7% owned had a mortgage, and 13.8% rented. Based on life expectancy data, they can look forward to more than 20 years of future spending ahead, unaffected by moves in interest rates.

For the RBA, this really matters.

High rates of outright home ownership insulate people from mortgage rate fluctuations. Superannuation pensions provide stable income, regardless of movements in official interest rates.

In fact, for retirees with savings in term deposits or similar accounts, higher interest rates can actually boost discretionary spending, and thus feed through to inflation.

Immune to the RBA’s moves

Wealth accumulated by those born in the post-war era through home ownership and superannuation stimulates the economy. Spending by retirees on recreation, leisure and health, combined with wealth transfers, such as helping children with housing deposits, mortgage repayments or school fees, continues regardless of changes in interest rates.

The demographic reality is the growing over-65 population is not
working, is financially and housing secure, and is immune to interest rate levers. The smaller, younger, working age families with mortgages are bearing the brunt of the RBA’s policy decisions. This risks widening inequity in Australia further.

As a result, the RBA is not meeting its overarching purpose, which is “to promote the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people”.

Other structural reforms should be considered. To achieve long-term economic prosperity and equity for all Australians, reform of tax settings around wealth, superannuation, housing and intergenerational transfers needs to be prioritised.

Without a demographic lens informing economic and social policy-making, Australia, and its governing institutions, risk failing future generations of students, workers and families.

Lisa Denny, Adjunct Associate Professor, University of Tasmania

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

From causing a major phone outage to shutting down street lights across parks, suburbs and roads, copper theft has become a clear public safety risk.

Last week, Optus said a phone and mobile data outage that affected more than 14,000 people across south-east Melbourne was triggered by thieves trying to steal copper – and accidentally cutting the wrong cable.

Across the border, last month the South Australia government introduced a bill to crack down on scrap metal theft, particularly copper. That followed more than 2,000 scrap metal thefts from building sites in 2023-24, costing an estimated A$70 million a year – just in one state.

But why are people stealing copper? And what’s being done to stop it?

Why copper is so attractive to thieves

Copper theft has become a multi-billion problem worldwide. In Australia, thieves have recently gone as far as stealing copper memorial plaques from cemeteries.

Back in 2011, an Australian Institute of Criminology tipsheet described scrap metal theft as

a lucrative and attractive venture for thieves and a significant issue for the construction industry.

Scrap metal theft covers a range of metals including copper, steel, lead and aluminium. For instance, catalytic converters are sometimes stolen from cars so criminals can access the palladium, rhodium and platinum in them.

Overseas, a 2024 report found metal theft was costing the United Kingdom’s economy around £480 million (A$970 million) a year.

Scrap metals are among the world’s most recycled materials because of their wide availability. They can be sold to a scrap metal dealer, who then arranges for the metal to be melted and moulded for different uses.

Copper can be recycled again and again, without degrading in the process.

How rising copper prices can drive up thefts

A 2022 systematic review of how changing prices affect the rates of theft for different goods found a 1% increase in the price of a metal can be associated with a 1.2% increase in its theft.

Other past research has also shown that link. For instance, a 2014 UK study showed changes in the price of copper led to more recorded thefts of copper cable from British railways between 2006 and 2012.

The price of copper crashed in 2017 due to factors including a Chinese ban on scrap copper imports. But it has been rising again over the last five years, making it a more attractive target for criminals looking for a quick profit.

Australia’s patchwork response to costly thefts

Police have different powers in different states to tackle copper theft. And this lack of national coordination is part of the problem, as a 2023 Queensland inquiry found.

New South Wales first introduced a Scrap Metal Industry Act in 2016 to target its “largely unregulated and undocumented” scrap metal trade, which it said was “extremely attractive to criminals as a way to make some quick cash”. NSW also tightened its rules and penalties last year.

Victorian scrap metal businesses must also be registered, though under different rules. As in NSW, they’re banned from paying or receiving cash for scrap metal.

Last month, South Australia passed its Scrap Metal Dealers Bill, though it’s yet to come into force. It will give new powers to authorised officers to search, seize and remove evidence – aiming to make it harder to trade in stolen scrap metal.

In Queensland, during the 2024 election campaign, the Liberal National leader (now premier) David Crisafulli promised a legislative crackdown on metal theft.

That’s yet to happen. But the LNP government told the ABC last month it was “committed to cracking down on metal theft and is progressing that work”.

Copper theft has been costing Queensland’s state-owned electricity distribution operators about $4.5 million every year – prompting them to replace thousands of kilometres in underground and overhead copper cabling across southeast Queensland with less valuable aluminium.

A 2023 Queensland parliamentary committee inquiry into scrap metal theft heard that about 200 to 250 scrap metal and car wrecker businesses in Queensland had been operating illegally for years.

The inquiry concluded:

a coordinated approach by all Australian jurisdictions is the best method for combating scrap metal theft. For example, we have heard that stolen goods may be transported and sold interstate. Additionally, we have heard from industry stakeholders that stolen goods are being exported in shipping containers to international destinations where regulations are less prohibitive than in Australia.

Until we get a more coordinated approach, we can all play a role in stopping public thefts of scrap metal, particularly copper.

If you see someone acting suspiciously near electricity infrastructure or a building site, you can report it to police in your state or territory by calling 131 444.

Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminal Justice and Criminology, Bond University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Australia’s housing market staged a turnaround in 2025, defying intense affordability and cost of living pressures to deliver an above decade-average growth rate of 7.7% through the year-to-date.

Cotality’s annual Best of the Best report, a detailed nationwide breakdown of the suburbs that rose fastest, had the highest rent return or offered the most accessible entry points, identifies which markets led the year’s recovery.

National dwelling values are set to close 2025 at least 8% higher, a result Cotality Australia Head of Research Eliza Owen says highlights how quickly conditions shifted after a challenging start.

“Markets entered 2025 under considerable pressure. Affordability had hit a series high, serviceability was stretched and price growth had flattened out. What followed was an unexpectedly strong rebound as interest rate cuts, easing inflation and limited supply reignited competition,” Ms Owen said.

Three rate cuts, an expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Deposit Scheme and persistently low listing volumes helped drive the recovery, with the housing market recording three consecutive months of growth of at least 1% by November and reaching a new high of $12 trillion.

Ms Owen said the turnaround was most visible across lower value markets and regions where buyers were able to respond quickly to more favourable credit conditions.

“Tight supply meant even modest demand created upward pressure on prices. Cheaper markets were had the most acceleration because they remained within reach for buyers navigating higher living costs,” she said.‍

Prestige Sydney remains Australia’s price leader

Sydney’s top-end suburbs sat in their own price bracket in 2025, widening the gap between premium enclaves and the rest of the country.

Point Piper led the national list with a median house value of $17.3 million and unit medians above $3.1 million, followed by long-established areas such as Bellevue Hill, Vaucluse, Tamarama and Rose Bay.

Ms Owen said the resilience of premium Sydney markets was in sharp contrast to affordability pressures elsewhere.

“Affordability constraints were a defining feature of 2025, yet premium markets continued to operate on their own cycle. These suburbs are far less sensitive to borrowing costs and listing trends, which is why their performance often diverges from the broader market,” she said.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally at $1.58 billion across 229 transactions, underlining the scale of turnover even in a year of strained serviceability.

Lower value suburbs delivered the strongest gains

Western Australia dominated high house value growth in 2025, with Kalbarri increasing 40.2% to $515,378 followed by Rangeway (32.2%) and Lockyer (32.0%).

Similar trends emerged in the unit market, with strong results concentrated in Queensland’s mid-priced regions such as Cranbrook (up 29.3%) and Wilsonton (up 26.9%).

Ms Owen said the performance of these markets highlighted the role of affordability at a time of constrained borrowing power.

“Lower value areas offered buyers an opportunity to get into the market if they had the capacity to service a mortgage. Once interest rate cuts started to flow through, demand lifted quickly in those areas where prices had further room to grow,” she said.

“Investors were a particularly strong driver of demand in markets across WA and QLD, where the share of new mortgage lending to investors reached 38.3% and 41.1% respectively.”

Perth, Brisbane and Darwin lead capital-city upswing

Darwin posted the strongest rise among the capitals at 17.1% through the year-to-date, following a flat result in 2024, joined by Brisbane and Perth as Australia’s three top-performing capital cities.

The fastest growing capital-city suburb for houses was Mandogalup in Perth (up 33.0% to $944,609), alongside several outer Darwin suburbs where more moderate entry points below $600,000 supported stronger value growth.

The most affordable capital-city suburbs for houses were clustered around Greater Hobart, including Gagebrook, Herdsmans Cove and Bridgewater, all with medians under $450,000. Suburbs in Adelaide and Darwin provided some of the best value for unit buyers, with medians ranging from less than $250,000 in Hackham, Adelaide to $328,416 for Karama in Darwin.

Biggest gains and the steepest falls in Regional Australia

Strong upswings in WA and Queensland contrasted with declines in other regional pockets.

House values fell 11.6% in Millthorpe (NSW) and 10.5% in Tennant Creek (NT) while several unit markets recorded annual declines, including South Hedland (down 14.1%) and Mulwala (down 11.8%).

Ms Owen said these differences reflected the uneven backdrop of supply levels, migration flows and localised demand.

“Some regional areas are still benefiting from relative affordability and tight rental conditions. Others are adjusting to earlier periods of rapid growth or shifts in local economic activity,” she said.

Mining towns produced the highest yields

Rental demand remained firm across key resource corridors in regional WA and parts of regional Queensland, where constrained supply, strong employment bases and short-stay workforces contributed to some of the highest yields in the country.

Newman, in the Pilbara, delivered the strongest house yields at 12.6%, reflecting demand linked to iron ore operations, Kambalda East, near the Goldfields mining belt, followed at 12.2%, supported by nickel and gold activity.

Unit yields were even stronger, with South Hedland leading the country at 17.8%, while Newman recorded 14.3% and Pegs Creek recorded 13.2%, as apartment stock is limited and worker demand remains consistent.

Pegs Creek, located in Karratha, recorded a 23.5% increase in house rents over the year and Rockhampton City recorded a 21.1% jump in unit rents.

Constraints to shape 2026

Market conditions are expected to be more restrained in 2026 as borrowing capacity, affordability and credit assessments place limitations on demand.

National listings remain 18% below the five-year average and new housing completions continue to trail household formation, maintaining the structural imbalance that supported stronger conditions in 2025.

Ms Owen said that imbalance alone is not enough to drive the same level of growth next year.

“Supply remains tight, but the demand environment is shifting. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher, interest rate expectations have adjusted with them, and households are facing stricter borrowing assessments. Those factors can temper buyer activity even when stock levels are low,” she said.

“Lower value markets may still outperform because they carry less sensitivity to credit constraints, but overall growth is likely to be more measured compared with 2025.”

Talk about a Tim Tam slam: the Government has just poured another $45 million into Arnott's Biscuits locally via the National Reconstruction Fund as part of a debt refinancing.

Update: See below this story for an update from Arnott's after I wrote this yesterday.

The deal was announced as part of a joint funding arrangement between the National Reconstruction Fund (NRF), new Arnott's corporate overlords KKR as well as Morgan Stanley and MUFG.

It's big bikkies (I'm sorry, the pun fever has taken over me), and will see $45 million of the public purse poured into Arnott's to help it make some of its soon-to-mature debt payments. Arnott's reportedly has $1.75 billion in borrowings that come due in 2026. 

Whatever you call it, the government calls it 'support for advanced manufacturing and export growth' for one of Australia's most beloved brands. But in practice it shores up the balance sheet of one of Australia’s biggest food companies.

The now-KKR-owned Arnott’s, which employs about 2500 people across five domestic facilities, has pitched the refinancing as a step toward 'expanding production' and 'lifting exports'. The legendary and nation-definining Tim Tam already has traction overseas, with more than five million packs sold in the UK since April. The boffins at the NRFC see the deal as a chance to push a national icon further into global markets while keeping production lines onshore.

The NRFC says the deal fits within its mandate to invest in value-adding agriculture, one of seven priority areas created by legislation. The fund has now deployed more than $1 billion since late 2024 and this is its third debt transaction. In theory, the backing makes sense: food processing and consumer packaged goods are areas where Australia can compete.

Now I need a cup of tea.

Update 11 December, 9am: The head bikkie breaker at the Arnott's corporate affairs department sent me quite the email after I published this story yesterday. In the interest of making sure their voice is heard, I wanted to dunk it into the story.

Chelsea Lahav, Head of Corporate Affairs at the Arnott's Group, wrote to me and said that referring to the debt refinancing round as a bailout in this story "couldn't be further from the truth".

She says that "the NRF were one of over 150 lenders participating in the oversubscribed refinancing, and did so on the same commercial terms as all others...it is not, as you suggested, any kind of bail out".

Lahav was also at pains to point out that S&P recently affirmed its credit rating for the Arnott's Group. Among the polite words that the Standards & Poors folks issued in its press release about the rating, it did land on a 'B' for the now $2+ billion it has under debt financing. Arnott's debt is currently more than 7x its EBITDA, and it is now under private equity ownership - both of which aren't great signals when assessing corporate debt.

That said, S&P did add that, as long as all goes well for Arnott's, it expects continued "sound operating performance" thanks to its free cash flow, positive earnings and could upgrade the rating in future if its expansion into Asian markets goes well.

Another day, another death because someone couldn't reach 000 with their mobile phone. And unfortunately, it's going to keep happening unless Aussies pay attention to the phones they're using and update them if they're affected by new technology that requires some phones to literally be disconnected from the network if they're incompatible. Here's how to tell if your phone is one of them, and what to do.

What's happening?

For over a year now, 3G services have been decommissioned in Australia to make way for new 5G upgrades.

The shutdown meant that any 3G-only devices were rendered inoperable, meaning users needed to replace them to stay connected. However, some devices that are able to connect to 4G might not have the exact-right settings required to connect to the network in the right way, meaning that many of them can't call 000 emergency services when they need help.

The technical cause is simple even though it feels counterintuitive. Many older or grey-market phones can use 4G for data but cannot place a voice call over it. These devices normally fall back to 3G whenever the user makes a call, including an emergency call. Once 3G is switched off, the fallback path disappears. The handset then tries to connect, fails silently, and the call never reaches emergency services. Some overseas models also use radio bands not supported in Australia, which blocks emergency routing altogether. A quick way to check if your phone can connect is if it supports something called VoLTE (or Voice-Over-LTE).

Telcos say they are still trying to reach customers who may have no idea that their phone is affected. Industry estimates point to roughly half a million devices still in circulation. Many belong to older Australians or to people who purchased cheaper imported models online. Some consumers assume that if the phone can browse the web, then it must be able to make an emergency call. That assumption is no longer safe.

This is why networks are starting to bar affected devices. If a handset cannot guarantee access to 000, carriers must restrict its use to encourage an upgrade. It is a blunt measure but it reflects the legal obligation. Regulators do not want customers believing they have a working safety line when they do not.

The solution is straightforward, although not always obvious. Consumers need to confirm that their phone supports VoLTE for standard calls and VoLTE Emergency Calling. Every major provider explains how to check this in device settings. Telstra also provides an IMEI-lookup tool. That lets customers confirm whether their specific handset model is fit for purpose.

Why was the change made at all?

You might think that shutting down 3G to make way for fancy new networks like 5G is a waste. That fast networking is just going to be used by consumers to stream TikTok and upload selfies even faster. In some instances, you're correct: people will be able to use their phones for this faster, but new networking tech like 5G is designed to power a digital economy that will take Australia into the next generation. A generation that has to make do economically on more than just what we dig out of the ground.

Businesses around Australia are already using it to deliver value to their bottom line, and in turn, the nation's. Logistics firms track vehicles and freight in real time. That cuts fuel use and improves delivery times. Mining companies run more autonomous machinery because 5G can support dense sensor networks across large sites. Health providers use high quality video links for remote consultations which reduces travel and keeps regional patients in the system. Small businesses benefit too. Faster mobile broadband lets them run cloud software, payments and inventory systems without fixed lines. The network also creates spillover value by making new services possible, like smart farms that manage water use minute by minute or energy grids that respond to real time demand.

These gains do not arrive as a single headline number. They show up as productivity growth in industries that already contribute billions of dollars to GDP.

Keeping 3G around just so that people don't have to change their old phone over to a slightly newer one would cost the economy billions for what is ostensibly nothing.

How to check if your phone is affected?

Aussie telcos estimate there are around half a million affected devices still out there in use that are affected by the change in technology.

Many telcos have issued a list of devices that need to be replaced or upgraded. Telstra has gone one step further and rolled out a system that lets you check a device's IMEI identification number directly to see if it's affected. You can use the IMEI checker from Telstra here.

Alternatively, check below for the list of devices (issued by Vodafone, may not be exhaustive) that either need a software update or an outright replacement.

A federal government green energy program is subsidising unnecessarily large home batteries and blowing out in cost.

The Labor government launched its A$2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program in July, with the aim of bringing down household power bills and reducing people’s reliance on the energy grid. The program was projected to lead to more than 1 million installed batteries by 2030.

There has been a massive uptake. The Clean Energy Regulator, which administers the program, told The Conversation that around 146,000 batteries have been installed in just five months.

But digging into the data reveals some major concerns about the program – many of which I previously anticipated. The average size of the batteries installed under the program is roughly double what a regular household requires to meet its energy needs. And that has resulted in a major cost blowout.

But there are ways to fix the program and ensure its benefits are distributed fairly among Australians.

What exactly is the Cheaper Home Batteries Program?

The program provides discounts of around 30% of the cost of an installed battery.

These batteries are valuable to store the excess energy from millions of rooftop solar systems in Australia. As such, they are an important component of the renewable energy transition.

The federal government has been celebrating the popularity of the program.

In September, when the Clean Energy Regulator revealed 50,000 batteries had been installed in just two months, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said:

This program is working in the suburbs, in the regions and in our cities. Australians are proving the naysayers and climate change deniers wrong – they want to be part of the clean energy future.

Early warnings have come true

In April I warned about the potential problems with the program if it wasn’t properly targeted, including that it would give higher subsidies for larger batteries which could, in turn, lead to major cost blowouts.

These warnings have come true.

The Clean Energy Regulator told The Conversation that as of December 3, “there are currently around 146,000 batteries installed under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program”.

By the end of the year, it expects this figure to rise to around 175,000.

More than 98% of batteries have been installed for households, with businesses making up most of the rest.

The average system size of battery installation is more than 22 kilowatt-hours, which can cost around A$18,000. The most common system size installation is roughly 19kWh.

More than 80% of validated residential battery installations have been above 10kWh.

For perspective, a typical household battery is around 11kWh, which can cost around A$10,000. And a battery as small as 5–6kWh could be sufficient to store energy in the middle of the day that can cover much of the evening peak for most households.

As of December 3, the program had cost roughly A$749 million, according to a spokesperson for the federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

This means around 30% of the cash pool has been spent on less than 15% of the projected 1 million batteries.

At this rate, the budget allocation of $2.3 billion might therefore run out in 2026, rather than 2030 as originally planned.

If this trend continues, and government budget allocations are extended, the total cost of the program could blow out to around $10 billion.

However, projections are vexed in general and there are reasons why the future will not be identical to the past. For example, the discounts per kWh are designed to decrease toward 2030, in line with assumptions of battery cost reductions.

So, what now?

The government says it is “working carefully […] on how to deliver on our objectives and keep the program sustainable for years to come”.

This could include adjusting the program to lower discounts for large batteries.

Currently, batteries above 100kWh are ineligible, and batteries above 50kWh only get a discount with respect to the first 50kWh. A possibility to discuss is lowering the 50kWh threshold to 15kWh.

Means testing could also be introduced, as is the case in some state schemes.

Means testing can refer to assets, such as property values used by Solar Victoria, with potential to use financial assets like for the age pension.

This could help to direct subsidies to the people who need them most.

Co-mingled schemes including multiple technologies, like in the Australian Capital Territory, could also give households more flexibility and provide a genuine opportunity for renters.

The success of this program can’t just be about how many new batteries are installed. It must also be about cost-effectiveness and fairness.

And on that front, it’s clear there’s plenty of work to be done.

Rohan Best, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Most Australians have probably noticed the proliferation of tobacconists and “convenience stores” in the last few years. These stores aren’t making much from the limited offerings on public display. Rather, their profitability comes from under-the-counter sales of untaxed tobacco and illegal vapes.

The growth of illegal tobacco sales has reached the point where the national accounts produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) have been significantly distorted. The ABS has announced it is taking steps to measure the consumption of illicit nicotine-related products to supplement existing measurement.

The extent of illicit consumption, and the associated loss of revenue is, by its nature, hard to measure. The Australian Taxation Office estimated a net loss of over A$3 billion in 2023-24, but this amount has almost certainly risen since then.

Where the - illegal - profits are

Before looking at how this decision will affect the national accounts, it’s worth asking how we got here. The short answer is that, over the past decade or so, the tobacco excise has been steadily increased to the point where there are big profits to be made from dodging the tax.

But that’s not the whole story. Taxes on spirits have also been raised substantially. At the current rate of $106/litre of alcohol plus GST, tax makes up around two-thirds of the price of a typical bottle of spirits, similar to the case with tobacco.

Yet we haven’t seen a return of the “sly grog” shops that were common in Australia until the 1960s, when the 6pm closing of pubs was abolished. And despite heavy taxes on gambling, illegal casinos seem to be a thing of the past.

What explains this difference? The sale of alcohol and gambling services is subject to licensing restrictions, managed by state authorities and enforced by police.

By contrast, until very recently, nicotine products have been treated as normal grocery items. Enforcement was limited until state governments started tightening up the law with changes that have just come into effect.

The states have begun shutting down tobacconists found to be breaching it, and even threatened jail for landlords.

The Australian Taxation Office, along with the Australian Border Force, makes serious efforts to prevent illegal importation of tobacco products, as well as seizing tobacco crops grown here. But it appears unable or unwilling to do much against retailers who sell cigarettes under the counter.

State police forces have been slow to enforce the law.

Their reluctance here contrasts with the reasonably effective licensing enforcement of alcohol and with the stringent measures taken against suspected users of drugs like ecstasy.

But the imbalance between the incentive to dodge the tax and the risks of being caught remains. Until it is resolved, the federal government would do well to defer planned further increases in taxation.

A question that remains open is whether the growth of illegal tobacco has led to an increase in smoking. Evidence here is mixed. A government survey in 2022-23 showed a continued decline in smoking, alongside an increase in vaping.

However, a more recent Roy Morgan survey suggests an increase of smoking among young people as a result of the vaping ban.

How to account for the shadow economy

Now, back to the ABS. The objective in producing national accounts statistics such as gross domestic product (GDP) is to measure economic activity, giving a guide as to whether the economy is operating at full capacity. That’s important for the Reserve Bank in setting interest rates, but it isn’t a measure of wellbeing.

As critics have often pointed out, GDP pays no attention to whether the production being measured is socially desirable, neutral or harmful. Similarly, the ABS has always been aware that not all economic activity is legally recorded.

The solution, in the past, has been to add a 1.5% adjustment to GDP to take account of unrecorded (shadow economy) activity. There hasn’t been a perceived need for anything more detailed.

But with illicit tobacco estimated to be about 25% of sales in 2023-24 and higher now, this adjustment is no longer sufficient.

Both major supermarkets have said their tobacco sales have halved just in the past 12 months, the sharpest fall on record.

The ABS estimates growth in final household consumption expenditure has been underestimated by more than 0.5 percentage points over the past year, which is a big deal given the typical annual increase in consumption spending is around 5%.

Keeping pace with a changing economy

Finally, it’s worth noting this isn’t the only issue the ABS is looking at in response to an ever-changing economy.

As more and more households meet their electricity needs through rooftop solar, the ABS has faced a conceptual issue. This might be thought of as household production, like growing your own vegetables or cooking your own meals, which isn’t counted in GDP.

But the ABS has decided it’s better to regard solar rooftops as a home-based small business, whether the electricity is self-consumed or fed back into the grid.

As distinctions between home and work, and between licit and illicit production become increasingly blurred, statisticians will need to make more and more judgements like this.

John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Barnaby Joyce has finally made the jump to One Nation and will lead its New South Wales Senate ticket for the 2028 federal election.

Pauline Hanson said on social media: “It’s official! We have made our announcement on 88.9FM in Tamworth.”

“Welcome on board.”

In a statement Hanson said, “I am pleased he’s chosen One Nation, and I welcome his experience, his advice and his determination to get a fair go for farmers and regional Australia. Mr Joyce strengthens One Nation’s position in parliament just as many Australians are strengthening our position in the polls.”

The One Nation leader flew to Joyce’s New England electorate for the announcement.

Joyce told local radio, “Pauline made an offer to me to come to One Nation, and I have taken that up”.

The move has been an open secret for weeks, but Joyce has made the transition in stages. During the last parliamentary sitting he confirmed he was leaving the Nationals but left unclear his future with One Nation. Earlier he had stopped attending Nationals party meetings.

Joyce is a major catch for One Nation, which has been surging in the polls, at around 15% and even rising up to 18%.

Joyce started his parliamentary career in the Senate after winning at the 2004 election. Later he moved to the House of Representatives. He has made it clear that one motive for his leaving the Nationals has been that Nationals leader David Littleproud relegated him to the backbench after the May election. He was also confined to his own seat during this year’s campaign.

Joyce will sit for the rest of this term as a One Nation member in the House of Representatives.

Littleproud said in a statement, “Today, Barnaby’s decision breaks the contract he made with the people of New England at the 2025 federal election.

"It is disappointing for the people of New England and disappointing for the loyal National Party members who worked day and night volunteering to support him.

"The Nationals supported Barnaby through many difficult times, including during his darkest moments.

"Barnaby has chosen to turn his back on The Nationals and on his electorate and instead join a party of protest, which is never able to achieve anything other than headlines. I have never had a personal issue or problem with Barnaby Joyce. This issue is about Barnaby wanting to be the Leader of a party.”

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum.

Still, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth was at a two-year high of 2.1%. That’s just above the Reserve Bank’s estimate of long-term trend growth of 2.0%.

The September quarter national accounts was the final major data release before the Reserve Bank’s meeting on 8–9 December.

The GDP result is steady enough to reassure the Reserve Bank the economy is not slipping backwards, while recent inflation data show domestic price pressures — especially in services — remain elevated. Together, the signals point clearly to a hold on interest rates next week.

All four major banks expect rates to remain on hold for many months, while financial markets on Wednesday were pricing in an 85% chance of a rate rise next year.

Across-the-board strength, led by IT

A key feature of the September quarter is the breadth of domestic growth.

In earlier quarters, much of the expansion came from the public sector — particularly government consumption and infrastructure spending — while private demand was subdued. This quarter marks a clear shift: private demand was the main driver, led by a strong lift in business investment, steady household consumption and continued public investment.

Domestic final demand rose solidly, with contributions from all major components — signalling improving confidence among both businesses and households and a more balanced base for growth than we saw earlier in the year.

Private investment led the gains, rising 2.9% – the strongest quarterly increase since March 2021.

Business investment in machinery and equipment jumped 7.6%, boosted by major data-centre projects in New South Wales and Victoria. IT-related machinery investment hit a record A$2.8 billion, double the June quarter, and aviation-related purchases also jumped. The Bureau of Statistics said in a statement:

The rise in machinery and equipment investment reflects the ongoing expansions of data centres. This is likely due to firms looking to support growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing capabilities.

Household consumption rose 0.5%, but this was driven more by spending on essentials rather than discretionary items. A cold winter, reduced government rebates and a harsh flu season lifted demand for utilities and for health services.

Public investment grew 3.0%, after three quarterly declines. State and local public corporations led the rise through renewable-energy and water-infrastructure projects.

Coal exports are up

External conditions weakened this quarter as imports grew faster than exports.

Goods exports rose 1.3%, helped by a rebound in coal shipments and strong overseas demand for beef and citrus. Services exports were flat, as a fall in spending by overseas students offset a modest recovery in short-term tourism from China, Japan and South Korea.

Goods imports rose 2.1%, driven by demand for intermediate goods — especially diesel — and capital goods, mainly the data-centre-related equipment.

Companies drew down on inventories during the quarter, which acts as a drag on growth.

Households are saving more

Households remain central to the outlook. They are on firmer financial footing but still spending cautiously. The household saving ratio rose from 6.0% to 6.4%, helped by higher compensation of employees.

Economic growth per person (known as GDP per capita) was flat this quarter, but up 0.4% over the year. After several negative quarters, living standards appear to have stopped falling, though improvements remain modest.

Overall, households are in better shape financially but remain hesitant — a pattern that supports stability, not a consumption-led surge.

A steady result, but not enough to shift the rate outlook

Some parts of this quarter’s outcome — including the lift in machinery and aviation-related spending — are unlikely to be repeated.

For the interest rate outlook, however, the key issue remains inflation. Price pressures are still above the Reserve Bank’s target band, and services inflation has been slower to ease than anticipated. The Reserve Bank now expects a more gradual return to the 2–3% target band.

After three rate cuts earlier this year — the most recent in August — markets were expecting at least one more rate cut. That view has shifted. Sticky services inflation and a slower forecast decline mean expectations of further cuts have faded.

A steadier footing, but risks remain

The September quarter shows an economy on a steady, though still moderate, footing. Domestic demand is broad-based, investment is strong, and households have more income support — even if they remain cautious.

But this is not yet a turning point. Inflation is still above target. As Australia enters 2026, the Reserve Bank remains firmly on hold — but alert to the possibility that, if inflation stays above 3%, the next adjustment may need to be upward rather than downward.

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Apple CEO Tim Cook might start to notice a few empty chairs around his boardroom table shortly, as executives drop like flies from the world's richest tech company.

In the last 24 months - with a rapid acceleration in the last six months - Apple has lost more than a handful of its senior leadership talent.

Carol Surface, Chief People Officer

Jeff Williams, Chief Operating Officer

Dan Riccio, SVP, Hardware Engineering

John Giannandrea, SVP, Machine Learning and AI Strategy

Lisa Jackson, SVP, Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives

Steve Dowling, SVP, Communications

Katherine Adams, SVP, Legal and Global Security

Those are some heavy hitters to lose all at once. Considering Apple is a company that prides itself on hardware design, security, environmental leadership and how it locks itself down to keep all communications tight as a drum, losing all the folks responsible for those activities is a bad beat.

Similarly, compared to its competitors like Google and Meta, Apple is currently struggling on its mission to bring AI to the forefront of its customer experience. The loss of its head of AI isn't going to make matters easier for the company, then.

These departures are backlit by the tenure of its CEO, Tim Cook. Cook, who succeeded Steve Jobs after his death in 2011, is reportedly considering hanging it up in 2026 to make way for a new man at the top in 2026.

It's now being reported that Apple's head of chips is set to depart to "continue his career elsewhere".

To give you an idea of his significance at the tech giant, Apple is currently sitting pretty thanks to its A-series and M-series chips. The latter series of chips currently powers its laptops and a few iPads. The company ditched Intel chips in favour of its own design, and it put Apple generations-ahead of the competition.

While the brain drain at the top is yet to show up in the share price, it might be an alarm bell for investors going into 2026.