Who's in? Who's out? It's the 2025 Rich List

I love the smell of money in the morning. But not as much as these 200 Aussies, dubbed by the annual AFR feature as Australia's richest. Here's who's who.

The AFR’s annual Rich List has landed, spotlighting the 200 wealthiest Australians in 2025. This year’s list features 10 new names, including Michael Dorrell of Stonepeak, who debuted in seventh place with a $13.9 billion fortune.

Tech and pharmacy were the standout sectors. A surge in valuations for ASX-listed tech firms and the Chemist Warehouse-Sigma merger helped push the sector total near parity with property. Together, tech-linked fortunes now account for over $100 billion in wealth.

There are now 42 women on the list—up from 41 last year—with Margaret Dymond (Penrite) and Gail Fletcher (Fletcher International Exports) among the most notable new names. Annie Cannon-Brookes, now ex-wife of Atlassian's Scott Cannon-Brookes also debuts following the pair's split.

Three big takeaways:

 

Read the full 2025 Rich List on the AFR (you'll need a subscription, or you can just #buythepaper)

Have hopes of upcoming rate cuts been crushed?

While the latest Inflation reading coming out a tad higher than expected has led to headlines doubting back-to-back rate cuts, hopes of that happening were never all that high. Now the question is whether we should be bracing for fewer rate cuts than borrower’s hip pockets and our economy need?

The new way the Reserve Bank board decides on interest rates means they don’t meet monthly for most of the year. So, there’s no June meeting, which makes July the next opportunity to give the thumbs up to another cut. And because the monthly headline Consumer Price Index for April has come in at 2.4% rather than economists’ best guess of 2.3% (and the more important underlying reading that takes out volatile price moves was 2.8% compared to the March number of 2.6%), headlines have been negative on a July cut.

But in the ‘secret world’ of those statistical-driven killjoys called economists, this July rate cut was always seen as less likely than those predicted cuts for August or September, December and then next February. That said, as one of those practitioners of the dismal science called economics, I often wonder how my colleagues come out with these guesses!

Here's the reality on rate cuts as I see it:

  1. If Donald Trump plays it crazy on tariffs and the world economy (including ours) is threatened with recession, we’ll see at least three or four more cuts over the next 12 months.
  2. The flow of economic data for Australia will determine how many cuts are coming and when.
  3. Two more cuts seem highly likely and August and December or February are my best guesses.
  4. Economists such as David Bassanese from Betashares said the April CPI was only “mildly disappointing”.
  5. Monthly CPIs aren’t as important as quarterly readings, and the June number comes in late July. This will be crucial for when the next cut is coming.
  6. The small jump in the CPI is seen as seasonal. Travellers heading to Europe and other places are slugged with higher airfares as June to August attracts many tourists, who cop these higher fares. And often there are clothing price rises for pre-winter purchases.

I think this from the CBA economics team is more positive than I would’ve expected, so let me share with you their more optimistic forecast on rate cuts: “Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect the RBA to deliver further 25 basis point rate cuts in August and September for an end year cash rate of 3.35%.”

The CBA team is more optimistic than me, and that seldom happens! Anyone really hoping for a lot of rate cuts is, by definition, also hoping for a recession and plenty of people out of work. I’m sure no one really wants that.

What the hell, CSL: is this big Aussie pharma about to storm back?

After a few months months in the doldrums, CSL (ASX: CSL) is showing signs it might be about to storm back.

What happened?

The Aussie health giant, which had been dragging under the weight of acquisition doubts and underperforming assets, might have suddenly found momentum.

After tipping a high for 2025 in February with a price per share of a little north of $309, the market has brought it off the boil. Since that high, shares have consistently slipped week-on-week in 2025. The stock closed Wednesday's session at $247.13 a share.

May has been a rollercoaster for CSL shareholders, with a brief rally followed by yet another steady decline, slumping to $234 per share.

But is the bad news now behind CSL investors as the line begins to trend northward again?

Plasma division to the rescue

It turns out one core business unit is currently the engine room for CSL.

“The plasma business is firing on all cylinders,” said Grady Wulff, senior market analyst at Bell Direct on this week's episode of Switzer Investing TV.

“They are seeing volume growth, margin expansion, and they’re also seeing revenues increase because they can increase the price.”

This turnaround is more than just good management. It’s a case of a company leaning into its strengths while other parts of the business falter.

“The reason it’s outperforming is because two of the three main CSL revenue drivers are not performing above market expectations,” Wulff said. “That is CSL Seqirus—so the influenza division—and CSL Vifor, the acquisition.”

What’s not working

CSL Vifor, acquired in 2022 for A$17 billion, was seen as a strategic play to broaden CSL’s portfolio into iron deficiency and nephrology treatments. But so far, it hasn’t lived up to the hype.

“They acquired Vifor a couple of years ago and unfortunately, that has not yet hit the mark,” said Wulff. “It hasn’t delivered the sort of revenue growth the market was hoping for.”

Seqirus, CSL’s flu vaccine business, has also underwhelmed. “The Seqirus division didn’t perform as well in the latest results either,” Wulff noted.

In other words, CSL’s recent gains are not the result of a company firing across all units—but of one star division doing the heavy lifting.

Why the market still loves it

Despite the uneven performance, analysts are warming back up to CSL.

“They’re seeing really good [plasma] donor numbers coming through, which is a leading indicator for revenue,” Wulff explained. “We’re seeing a really strong performance and a beat on expectations.”

That word—beat—is key. The plasma division didn’t just improve; it surprised to the upside. And in this market, surprises are rewarded.

“There’s also confidence that margins can keep expanding, particularly in the US, which is their core plasma collection market,” Wulff added.

Paul Rickard from the Switzer Report was even more direct: “CSL’s the type of company where you don’t worry too much about the short term. You’re backing the quality of the management team and the long-term story.”

What’s next?

CSL is still facing questions over whether Vifor will ever deliver the growth it promised, and whether Seqirus can rebound. But for now, the market seems willing to forgive those weaknesses as long as plasma keeps pulling ahead.

And if all three engines start to fire?

As Wulff put it: “If Vifor and Seqirus get back on track, then CSL’s earnings profile could look materially different—and in a good way.”

 

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The Coalition is back together: here's who's who in the new Shadow Ministry

<p>Two Victorian Liberal women, Jane Hume and Sarah Henderson, have been dumped and a key numbers man has been promoted from the backbench to the shadow cabinet in the new frontbench announced by Coalition leaders Sussan Ley and David Littleproud. </p>

<p>Hume was the high-profile finance spokeswoman last term and central in the disastrous work-from-home election policy debacle. </p>

<p>Henderson was shadow education minister, and complained after the election about not being able to get some of her policy out. She said in a statement she was “very disappointed” not to be included in the shadow ministry. “I regret that a number of high performing Liberal women have been overlooked or demoted in the new ministry”.</p>

<p>Alex Hawke, who was numbers man for Scott Morrison, and has played that role for Ley, becomes shadow minister for industry and innovation as well as manager of opposition business in the House of Representatives.</p>

<p>The shadow ministry was unveiled after a Nationals party meeting earlier on Wednesday formally signed off on re-forming the Coalition, just over a week after it had dramatically split.</p>

<p>Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who defected from the Nationals in a vain hope of becoming deputy Liberal leader, is shadow minister for defence industry, outside the shadow cabinet. Price has lost out by her move – she would have been in the shadow cabinet if she had stayed in the Nationals. She indicated on Wednesday night she would continue to speak widely on issues. </p>

<p>The post of “government efficiency” that Peter Dutton created for Price has been scrapped. </p>

<p>As expected, Liberal deputy Ted O'Brien, who carried the nuclear debate for the opposition in the last term, becomes shadow treasurer. The deputy leader has the right to choose their own portfolio. </p>

<p>Apart from O'Brien, the opposition economic team includes James Paterson in finance, Andrew Bragg in productivity, deregulation and housing, and Tim Wilson in industrial relations, employment and small business. </p>

<p>This is a promotion for Paterson, considered a good performer on national security issues last term, and a big reward for Wilson for dislodging teal MP Zoe Daniel. There is a partial recount in Wilson’s seat of Goldstein at Daniel’s request, but he is considered safe. </p>

<p>The opposition’s Senate leader Michaelia Cash receives the plum job of shadow foreign minister, while Angus Taylor, who ran unsuccessfully for leader, becomes shadow defence minister.</p>

<p>Andrew Hastie, who wanted to move from the defence post, is in home affairs. Hastie decided not to run for leader after the election but is seen as positioning himself for a bid at some point in the future. He told the ABC this week: “Timing is really important in political life”. </p>

<p>Kerrynne Liddle is shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, as well as having social services. Angie Bell becomes shadow minister for the environment while Dan Tehan is spokesman on energy and emissions reduction. </p>

<p>Jonathon Duniam becomes education spokesman. Julian Leeser takes over shadow attorney-general, a position he held early last term before he resigned over the Voice. </p>

<p>The Nationals, who wanted a stronger economic voice, have
won the position of shadow assistant treasurer, which goes to Pat Conaghan. </p>

<p>For their part, the Liberals have sliced off part of the infrastructure portfolio, held by the Nationals’ Bridget Mckenzie, to create a new shadow ministry for urban infrastructure and cities, which goes to Queensland senator James McGrath.</p>

<p>Gisele Kapterian, who as of late Wednesday was only three votes ahead of teal Nicolette Boele for the Sydney seat of Bradfield, will become a shadow assistant minister if she wins.</p>

<p>For Ley, the shadow frontbench reflects a juggling act of rewarding supporters while seeking to not excessively alienate those who opposed her.</p>

<p>She was reluctant to be drawn on her dumping of Hume, who supported Taylor in the leadership. “I don’t reflect on private conversations. I will say this; These are tough days and having been through many days like this myself in my parliamentary career, I recognise that.”</p>

<p><iframe id="rxpy4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rxpy4/15/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: 0;" scrolling="no" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>

<h2>Tensions in the Nationals</h2>

<p>Though the Coalition is back together, ructions within the Nationals are continuing, with the longer-term implications for Littleproud unclear. </p>

<p>Two former Nationals leaders, Michael McCormack and Barnaby Joyce, have been excluded from frontbench positions. Both had been critical of breaking the Coalition. </p>

<p>McCormack welcomed the Coalition rejoining, but said “we should never have been apart”. Of his exclusion from the frontbench, he told reporter in his home city of Wagga Wagga, “I’m disappointed, but life goes on”.</p>

<p>Nationals Colin Boyce, from Queensland, attacked Littleproud on Wednesday saying, “How can you support a bloke who misled the party room?” Boyce, speaking on Sky, said the party room had not been told “the whole truth about the conversations, the letters, the little extras that were demanded”.</p>

<p>It was later revealed Littleproud had asked for Nationals shadow ministry to have freedom to freelance on policy. This was rejected by Ley, which Littleproud then accepted.</p>

<p>The Coalition now faces a defining coming battle over whether to stay committed to the target of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050. </p>

<p>Joyce – under whom the Nationals signed up to net zero – flagged he would push for change.</p>

<p>He said net zero was a disaster for the economy and the environment, and most importantly for “poor people because they can’t afford their power bills”.</p>

<p>Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who ran for the leadership against Littleproud, is a constant campaigner against net zero. </p>

<p>Hastie this week described net zero as “a straitjacket that I’m already getting out of”. </p>

<p>Ley was confident she and Littleproud could work well together. “Personally, David and I will be friends. I think a woman who got her start in the shearing sheds of western Queensland can always find something to talk about over a steak and a beer, David, with you, the person who represents those communities now.”<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/257335/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>

<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michelle-grattan-20316">Michelle Grattan</a>, Professorial Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra-865">University of Canberra</a></em></span></p>

<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-liberals-and-nationals-patch-things-up-and-announce-a-shadow-ministry-257335">original article</a>.</p>
</div>

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Will Trump's tariff game rock markets again? We might be okay

Yesterday we looked at how Donald Trump was tagged as a victim of the "TACO theory" by former policy confidante, Anthony Scaramucci. Why TACO? Well, TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out.

He plays tough, but history shows he always chickens out! After threatening a heightened 50% tariff on the European Union late last week, Trump relented (TACOs, anyone?) and gave the trading bloc a month to come up with a better deal, or else.

The stock market will like this breathing space, with SPI Futures telling us that our S&P/ASX 200 index will open 17 points higher today. That's all thanks to the TACO theory: since making his EU tariff proclamation, Trump has now relented (read: ‘chickened out’), depending on if you're a subscriber to the theory or not.

Trump supporters would divine a method to this particular madness by saying it's a kind of negotiating technique. Threaten a big stick so the little stick you end up having to live with isn't so bad.

I looked at this TACO theory with guests on my TV show yesterday, where you can see their views on how you should play the stock market and whether you should be afraid of a big sell-off with Trump playing an aggressive tariff game. You can check out this episode that also uncovered some smart stock selections from some very smart experts.

Personally, I don’t care who’s right or wrong when it comes to what Trump says. I just want to believe that we can avoid another needless stock price smashing, the likes of which we saw on ‘Liberation Day’. The US market collapsed over 20% as a result! Since the President U-turned (or chickened out) over trade and tariffs with China, though, there has been a nice bounce back.

The latest tariff threat to the EU unnerved markets late last week, we thankfully didn't see the same sell-off that accompanied Liberation Day all over again. And following discussions between Trump and EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, we have a brief reprieve until July 9 before these tariffs become a reality.

But we shouldn't all breathe out just yet. We have to be realistic. The market will be on edge until it sees what Trump thinks of the trade offerings brought from of China, the EU, Japan, South Korea and so on.

If he canes the world with even a 10% tariff on specific industries (or worse, our big super funds), the world’s stock markets will be relaxed, though our market could be negatively affected.

Ultimately, it’s a waiting game. A stay of execution. As a result, it's expected that the markets will be choppy and unwilling to spike much higher until these trade deals are thrashed out on paper (instead of in a Truth Social post).

CNBC talked with Guntram Wolff, senior fellow at the European think tank, Bruegel, who said that despite the extension of the tariff deadline, “massive uncertainty” still remained:

“This uncertainty is bad for business, it’s bad for consumers, and frankly it’s an unnecessary step in the negotiations,” he said. “It’s very unclear what exactly the U.S. President wants, [and] that’s the biggest obstacle at this stage, that in the negotiations the EU has made offers, has made proposals, but it doesn’t really know what the President wants.”

Wolff thinks the EU is “playing it rather well”, while the UK “has given in on all kinds of demands [and] China is the other extreme, [it] has really escalated … to a point where the U.S. had to blink, had to give in.

This is a “high-stakes tango” between Trump and the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen, as one expert called it. So, every tweet and news release will be significant for the market.

Respected fund manager Jun Bei Liu from Ten Cap told me after April 2 that the big sell-off was a “buying opportunity”. Yesterday she said she was not investing as though the sky was falling. These were my words, not hers, but she gives confidence to the nervous Nellies out there who might be going too defensive because the US President behaves like a human-curve ball.

While I expect some scary days for stocks as trade deal deadlines loom, the TACO theory (or Trump’s "methodical madness") should see equity and bond markets left relatively untouched.

If Donald, the "legendary" deal maker, fails to allay the fears of the bond and stock markets, however, he’ll be in a world of trouble. However, I'm sure - according to him - it'll be everyone else's fault.

I’m investing cautiously that it won’t.

How should central banks respond to Trump tariffs? The RBA has some ideas

With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the United States has signalled a return to aggressive tariff policies, upending economic forecasts around the world.

This leaves central banks with a tricky dilemma: how to respond when inflation and global growth are being shaped by political decisions rather than economic fundamentals?

Tariffs lift import prices and disrupt trade, which could lead to higher inflation. But they can also dampen consumer demand and undermine business confidence, which would slow economic growth.

This leaves central banks balancing two opposing forces – do they raise interest rates to control inflation, or cut interest rates to support growth?

Three big shocks in a row

Last week, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock addressed this challenge in a press conference after cutting interest rates for the second time this year.

She described the current period as one of “shifting and unusual uncertainty”.

Central banks, she noted, have faced three major shocks in succession: the global financial crisis, the COVID pandemic, and now the fallout from Trump’s trade policies.

Each, she said, is different – this latest one being political in nature and harder to categorise. Bullock stressed the difficulty of judging whether such shocks are supply-driven or demand-driven, or both, and emphasised the need to prepare for a range of outcomes.

So, the Reserve Bank took the unusual step of outlining three alternative global scenarios – trade war, trade peace, and a central baseline. Each one has distinct implications for Australian monetary policy.

It’s a clear example of how central banks can remain flexible and forward-looking in a world where the next shock may look nothing like the last.

Looking at three global scenarios

1. Trade war (escalation)

In this scenario laid out in the Reserve Bank’s quarterly statement on monetary policy, the US imposes sweeping new tariffs. That prompts retaliation and a slowdown in global trade. Supply chains are hit and business confidence falls.

Australia would feel the consequences quickly: weaker export demand, rising import prices, and a difficult mix of slower growth and temporary inflation. Here, the Reserve Bank would likely look past short-term price increases and focus on deteriorating demand. A rate cut would become more likely, despite inflation being above target in the short run.

2. Trade peace (de-escalation)

If the US backs away from new tariffs and tensions ease, global confidence improves and trade stabilises. Australia benefits from stronger global demand, a rebound in commodity exports and rising investment.

In this setting, inflation rises gradually due to higher activity – not import price shocks. The Reserve Bank might hold rates steady, or even consider hiking rates if inflation pressures build. But this scenario also carries risk: if the recovery is faster than expected, interest rates may be left low for too long.

3. Baseline scenario

In the bank’s central case, trade tensions persist but do not escalate. Global growth slows moderately and firms adjust to ongoing strain in supply chains.

Australia sees subdued but stable economic growth. Inflation remains within the 2-3% target band in the near term, and the Reserve Bank would stay open to either raising or lowering interest rates, depending on how risks evolve.

Other central banks face similar choices

Australia’s central bank is not alone in navigating these challenges.

At the Bank of England, the decision to cut rates in May showed a divided Monetary Policy Committee. While the majority supported a 0.25% cut, two members – including trade expert Swati Dhingra – called for a larger 0.5% move to better support growth. The split highlights the difficulty of gauging how aggressively to respond in an uncertain environment.

In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned of the risks posed by Trump’s new tariffs. Speaking in April, Powell said the impact could be “larger than expected”, threatening both growth and inflation.

With trade policy largely out of the Fed’s hands, he noted, the central bank must still monitor developments on tariffs closely because of their potential to disrupt both employment and prices.

The road ahead

The re-emergence of US tariffs adds to the complexity facing central banks. As Bullock noted, this is not just another economic shock – it’s a politically driven one, which is harder to model and forecast.

The Reserve Bank’s response offers a practical framework: map out potential scenarios, weigh their implications and stand ready to move. In an uncertain world, monetary policy must be based not just on data, but on judgement, flexibility and contingency planning.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.