Climate shocks threaten to devastate communities, overwhelm emergency services and strain health, housing, food and energy systems according to a federal government assessment released yesterday.

The report, Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment, confirms the devastating consequences of climate change have arrived. It also reveals the worsening effects of extreme heat, fires, floods, droughts, marine heatwaves and coastal inundation in coming decades.

The sobering assessment is a major step forward in Australia’s understanding of who and what is in harm’s way from climate change. It is also a national call to action. The sooner Australia mitigates and adapts, the safer and more resilient we will be.

Australia’s climate risk revealed

The assessment involved more than 250 climate experts, including the authors of this article, and contributions from more than 2,000 specialists. It was also informed by data and modelling from the Australian Climate Service, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, the Australia Bureau of Statistics and Geosciences Australia, among other major institutions.

The report provides the vital evidence base to inform Australia’s first National Adaptation Plan, also released today.

Earth has already warmed by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, and remains on track for 2.7°C by the end of the century if no action is taken. The assessment considers the impacts on Australia at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming.

The risks to Australia are assessed under eight key systems, as we outline below.

1. Health and social support

Climate hazards will severely impact physical and mental health. The most vulnerable communities include Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, the elderly, the very young and those with pre-existing health conditions, as well as outdoor workers.

At 3°C global warming, heat-related deaths increase by 444% for Sydney and 423% for Darwin, compared to current conditions.

Deaths from increased disease transmission are expected to rise. Vector borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever may spread in the tropics.

Attracting health care workers to remote areas will be increasingly hard, and services will be strained by rising demand and disrupted supply chains.

2. Communities

Coastal, regional and remote communities face very high to severe risk.

More than 1.5 million people in coastal communities could be exposed to sea level rise by 2050, increasing to more than 3 million people by 2090.

Communities within 10km of soft shorelines will be especially vulnerable to erosion, inundation and infrastructure damage.

Extreme weather events – including heatwaves, bushfires, flooding and tropical cyclones – will intensify safety and security risks, especially in Northern Australia.

Compounding hazards are expected to erode community resilience and social cohesion. Water supplies in many areas will be threatened. Economic costs will escalate and people may be forced to migrate away from some areas.

3. Defence and national security

Climate risk to defence and national security is expected to be very high to severe by 2050. This system includes emergency management and volunteers.

Defence, emergency and security services will be increasingly stretched when hazards occur concurrently or consecutively.

If the Australian Defence Force continues to be asked to respond to domestic disasters, it will detract from its primary objective of defending Australia. At the same time, climate impacts will cause instability in our region and beyond.

Repeated disasters and social disruptions are likely to erode volunteer capacity. Increasing demands on emergency management personnel and volunteers will intensify and may affect their physical and mental wellbeing.

4. Economy and finance

Risks to the economy, trade and finance is expected to be very high by 2050. Projected disaster costs could total A$40.3 billion every year by 2050, even at 1.5°C.

Losses in labour productivity due to climate and weather extremes could reduce economic output by up to $423 billion by 2063. Between 700,000 and 2.7 million working days would be lost to heatwaves each year by 2061.

Extreme weather will lead to property damage and loss of homes, particularly in coastal areas. Loss on property values are estimated to reach A$611 billion by 2050. Insurance may become unaffordable in exposed areas, putting many financially vulnerable people at further risk.

Coupled with increased prices for essential goods, living costs will rise, straining household budgets.

The economy could experience financial shocks, leading to broader economic impacts which especially affect disadvantaged communities.

5. Natural environment

Risk to the natural environment is expected to be severe by 2050.

Important ecosystems and species will be lost by the middle of the century. At 3°C warming, species will be forced to move, adapt to the new conditions or die out. Some 40% to 70% of native plant species are at risk.

Ocean heatwaves and rising acidity, as well as changes to ocean currents, will massively alter the marine ecosystems around Australia and Antarctica. Coral bleaching in the east and west will occur more frequently and recovery will take longer.

Ocean warming and acidification also degrades macroalgae forests (such as kelp) and seagrasses. Freshwater ecosystems will be further strained by rainfall changes and more frequent droughts.

Loss of biodiversity will threaten food security, cultural values and public health. The changes will disrupt the cultural practices of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and their connection to Country.

6. Infrastructure and the built environment

By 2050, the climate risk to infrastructure and built environment is expected to be high or very high.

Climate risks will push some infrastructure beyond its engineering limits, causing disruption, damage and in some cases, destruction. This will interrupt businesses and households across multiple states.

Extreme heat and fires, as well as storms and winds, will increasingly threaten energy infrastructure, potentially causing severe and prolonged disruptions.

Transport and supply chains will be hit. Water infrastructure will be threatened by both drought and extreme rainfall. Telecommunications infrastructure will remain at high risk, particularly in coastal areas.

The number of houses at high risk may double by 2100. Modelling of extreme wind shows increasing housing stock loss in coastal and hinterland regions, particularly in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

7. Primary industries and food systems

By 2050, risks to the primary industries and food systems will be high to very high. This increases food security risks nationwide.

Variable rainfall and extreme heat will challenge agriculture, reducing soil moisture and crop yields. Farming communities will face water security threats.

Hotter climates and increased fire-weather risks threaten forestry operations. Fisheries and aquaculture are likely to decline in productivity due to increased marine temperatures, ocean acidity and storm activity.

The livestock sector will face increased heat stress across a greater area. At 3ºC warming, more than 61% of Australia will experience at least 150 days a year above the heat-stress threshold for European beef cattle.

Biosecurity pressures will increase. Rainfall changes and hotter temperatures are expected to help spread of pests and diseases.

8. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples

As part of the assessment, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples identified seven additional nationally significant climate risks:

• self-determination
• land, sea and Country
• cultural knowledges
• health, wellbeing and identity
• economic participation and social and cultural economic development
• water and food security
• remote and rural communities.

As the report notes, climate change is likely to disproportionately impact Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in terms of ways of life, culture, health and wellbeing as well as food and water security and livelihoods. It also notes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples “have experience, knowledge and practices that can support adaptation to climate change”.

Doing more. Doing better.

The assessment poses hard questions about how climate change will affect every system vital to Australia.

Ideally, such an assessment would be carried out every five years and be mandated by legislation.

Future assessments should comprehensively examine global impacts and their flow-ons to Australia. As the COVID pandemic showed, Australia is part of a global system when it comes to human health and supply chains. Defence, trade and finance all are international by nature. And climate change refugees from the South Pacific are already arriving.

The assessment makes clear that current efforts to curb and adapt to climate change will not prevent significant harm to Australia and our way of life. We must do better – and do it quickly.

Young people, and unborn generations, can and will hold us all to account on our progress from today.

Andrew B. Watkins, Associate Research Scientist in Climate Science, Monash University; Lucas Walsh, Professor of Education Policy and Practice, Youth Studies, Monash University, and Tas van Ommen, Adjunct Professor in Climate Science, University of Tasmania

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Coalition’s primary vote has plunged to its lowest level in Newspoll’s history, while support for One Nation has reached the double digits in three separate polls. Meanwhile, Labor has thumped the Liberals to win the NSW Kiama byelection.

The Newspoll conducted September 8–11 from a sample of 1,264 people, showed the Coalition’s primary vote sinking to just 27%, which is the worst since Newspoll began tracking party support in 1985.

Labor’s primary vote support held steady at 36%, while the Greens were at 13% (up one point), One Nation 10% (up one) and all others 14% (up one).

Labor also led the Coalition by 58–42% in the two-party-preferred estimate, a two-point gain for Labor since the August Newspoll.

In August, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval reached positive territory for the first time since September 2023. However, he’s now lost eight points for a net approval of -5, with 50% dissatisfied and 45% satisfied.

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a trend line fitted. Albanese had negative ratings in the lead-up to the 2025 federal election, but Labor won by its largest margin since 1943.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley also slumped eight points to a net approval of -17. Albanese led as better prime minister by an unchanged 51–31%.

One Nation has gained one point in Newspoll, two points in the Redbridge poll and three points in Resolve. Much of this gain is at the Coalition’s expense, with the Coalition down three points in Newspoll, two points in Resolve and one point in Redbridge.

Labor’s two-party share of 53.5% in the Redbridge poll is its lowest in any poll since the election, but it had 55% support in the Resolve poll and 58% in Newspoll.
The polls no longer understate the support for far-right parties, such as One Nation. In fact, at the 2025 election, the polls overstated support for both the Coalition and One Nation.

The increased support for One Nation will likely give the Coalition a higher share of overall preferences, compared to the 2025 election. However, the Coalition still trails Labor by nine points on primary votes in Newspoll, eight in Resolve and five in Redbridge. The Coalition will need to be about even with Labor on primary votes to be competitive.

Meanwhile, on climate change, 37% of respondents in the Newspoll said Australia should increase its action, 28% said we should slow down our action and 25% stick with current actions.

Resolve poll

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 9–13 from a sample of 1,800 voters, gave Labor a 55–45% lead by respondent preferences, a four-point gain for the Coalition since a pro-Labor outlier poll in August.

Primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 27% Coalition (down two), 12% One Nation (up three), 11% Greens (down one), 9% independents (up one) and 6% others (steady). By 2025 preference flows, this would be about 56–44% to Labor, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -1, with 45% giving him a poor rating and 44% a good rating. In contrast to Newspoll, Ley’s net approval was steady at +9. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 38–26% (compared to 41–26% in August).

There was a 29–29% tie between Labor and the Liberals on which party was best for economic management after Labor had led by 34–28% in August. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 28–27%, reversing a 32–26% Labor advantage in August.

On the permanent immigration level remaining unchanged at 185,000 people, 49% of respondents said this was too high, 27% said it was about right, and 5% thought it was too low. By 55–21%, respondents thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way (compared to 60–20% in May 2024).

However, immigration has low issue salience with just 4% rating it their highest policy priority. Cost of living was rated the highest priority by 40%, far ahead of any other issue.

Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge poll
for The Financial Review, conducted from August 19 to September 8 from a sample of 5,326 voters, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5% lead by respondent preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the June Redbridge poll.

Primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 30% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (steady), 11% One Nation (up two) and 13% for all Others (up one). By 2025 election flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by just under 55–45%.

Women gave Labor a 55–45% lead, while men gave the party a 52–48% lead.

Morgan polls on Chinese and Indian-born Australians

After Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s recent controversial comments about Indian Australians, Morgan has released polling results reflecting voting intention for Chinese and Indian-born Australians.

The research used all Morgan polls conducted between July 2023 and June 2025 to get a suitable sample of Chinese and Indian-born Australians (738 and 1,332, respectively).

For Chinese-born Australians, primary votes were 48% Labor, 34% Coalition, 11% Greens, 1% One Nation and 6% for all others. A two-party estimate from the 2025 election preference flows would give Labor above a 61–39% lead.

For Indian-born Australians, primary votes were 45% Labor, 39% Coalition, 8% Greens, 2% One Nation and 6% for all others. A two-party estimate would give Labor about a 56–44% lead.

Labor won the two-party vote at the May 2025 election by 55.2–44.8% and has had a big lead since in national polls. However, for much of the two-year period covered by this poll, Labor fared substantially worse than its 2025 result.

This implies that Chinese and Indian-born Australians are now more favourable to Labor than the Morgan polls reflect.

Labor thumps Liberals in NSW Kiama byelection

At Saturday’s Kiama byelection, Labor’s Katelin McInerney defeated the Liberals’ Serena Copley by 59.2–40.8%, according to The Poll Bludger’s projections. Primary votes were 37.5% Labor (up 2.5% since 2023), 26.2% Liberals (up 14.8%), 10.7% for an independent (new), 8.2% Greens (down 2.7%), 5.1% Shooters (new) and 5.1% Legalise Cannabis (new).

Gareth Ward had held the New South Wales state seat of Kiama for the Liberals from 2011 to 2021. During his 2019–23 term, he was charged with sexual assault and left the Liberals, but retained Kiama as an independent at the March 2023 election, defeating Labor by 50.8–49.2%.

In July, Ward was convicted of the charges and resigned in August just before he would have been expelled by parliament.

At the 2023 NSW election, Labor won 45 of the 93 lower house seats, two short of a majority, and formed a minority government. Winning this byelection takes Labor to 46 seats, one short of majority. The next NSW election will be held in March 2027.

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

We’ve heard everyone from Mark Zuckerberg to Anthony Albanese tell us that AI is going to change the way business operates around the world. New data shows that big business isn’t quite convinced yet.

Big companies are stepping back from AI

Despite the hype, new data from the United States Census Bureau suggests that big businesses are cooling on AI. The Bureau regularly surveys over 1.2 million businesses across the country, asking, among other things, whether they’ve used AI tools (like machine learning, natural language processing, chatbots or voice recognition) in the last fortnight to help produce goods or services.

The most recent survey results in the graph above show a clear trend: while small and medium businesses are still slowly adopting AI, companies with more than 250 employees are doing so at a decreasing rate. In other words, AI use in large firms is not just slowing, it’s declining.

And while the data is US-based, Australia is following a similar trajectory. Surveys by the Future Skills Organisation and the AI Group indicate that local companies, especially larger ones, are treading carefully. They’re testing AI, yes. But widespread implementation? That’s still a way off.

Why workers might not be embracing AI

AI has been called the “next industrial revolution,” a once-in-a-generation technological shift. But speak to people actually using these tools, and you’ll hear a different story. One of glitches, hallucinations, and unmet promises. So what’s really holding back adoption?

AI is rubbish

Let’s call it for what it is: a lot of AI is bad. It confidently invents facts. It can’t tell when it’s wrong. And it often produces content that ranges from bland to outright false.

The Future Skills Organisation says many Australian businesses are worried about the accuracy and integrity of AI outputs - particularly hallucinations - where AI tools generate information that simply isn’t true.

Data privacy is another red flag. Survey respondents across industries and demographics list it as their top concern. And older workers in particular say they just don’t trust AI enough to use it at work.

Workers are scared it will replace them

One of the biggest elephants in the room is jobs. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, more than half of US workers who are aware of AI tools say they’re worried the technology could lead to workforce reductions.

For workers in sectors like customer service, content creation, or administration where AI is already being deployed, these fears are becoming very real. And when people are scared a tool will make them redundant, they’re unlikely to adopt it with open arms.

Regulatory limbo

Then there’s the law, or lack thereof. Research from KPMG, the University of Queensland and the AI Group shows that regulation (or the lack of it) is shaping AI adoption in surprising ways.

Businesses say they want guardrails. They’re asking for clearer rules around who is responsible when AI gets something wrong. They want a framework that spells out where and how AI can be used, and what rights workers and customers have.

Until those frameworks arrive (and they’re being debated in Australia and globally right now)many companies are choosing to wait.

Do recruiters have a vested interest in putting out information encouraging people to move jobs because they get paid? Is there anything in this new idea of ‘job hugging’ that’s worthwhile?

This week investors will be watching local employment figures and a flurry of central bank decisions from the US, UK, Canada and Japan. Here's what to keep an eye on from Sunday 15 September.

As usual, this info comes to us from the experts at CommSec.

Australia

Tuesday 17 September

RBA official Brad Jones speaks
At the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne. Investors will listen closely for signals on monetary policy direction.

Thursday 18 September

Labour force (August)
Around 20,000 jobs may have been created. This is a key read for assessing economic momentum and RBA outlook.

National, state and territory population (March)
Annual population growth is 1.7%. A critical driver for housing, infrastructure, and economic forecasts.

Friday 19 September

Reserve Bank (RBA) official Sarah Hunter speaks
At the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. May offer insights into future interest rate settings and financial stability.

Overseas

Monday 15 September

China retail sales, production and investment (August)
Industrial production could lift 5.5% on a year ago—watch for a reaction in commodities and Aussie dollar.

US Empire State manufacturing index (September)
Expected to decline to 4.3 from 11.9. A weaker read could bolster Fed cut expectations.

Tuesday 16 September

US retail sales (August)
Tipped to rise 0.2%—an important test of household resilience as student loan payments resume.

US import & export prices (August)
Import prices could edge 0.3% lower, helping disinflation trends if sustained.

US industrial production (August)
A flat outcome is expected, after July's modest lift.

US business inventories (July)
Inventories may lift 0.2%—a neutral signal for GDP tracking.

US NAHB housing market index (September)
Tipped to lift from 32 to 33, a modest improvement but still well below 2022 highs.

Wednesday 17 September

US building permits & housing starts (August)
Starts could fall 4.1%, with permits up 0.6%. Tight supply may keep pressure on home prices.

US Federal Reserve (FOMC) interest rate decision
A 25-basis-point rate cut is expected. Commentary will be crucial for 2025 guidance.

Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision
Markets expect a quarter-point cut as inflation moderates.

Thursday 18 September

Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision
No change is expected, but investors will watch for updated inflation and wage commentary.

US Conference Board leading index (August)
Expected to dip 0.1%, extending its decline streak and reinforcing soft-landing themes.

US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (September)
Tipped to lift to +3.0 from -0.3. Positive momentum may bolster sentiment in the industrials sector.

Friday 19 September

Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy decision
No change in rates is expected. Focus remains on the Yen and the Bank’s inflation outlook.

Key themes to watch

• Australia: Labour force data and RBA speeches will shape domestic rate cut expectations.
• China: Retail sales and industrial production will offer a key read on the world's second-largest economy.
• US: Retail sales, industrial output, and the Fed’s next move take centre stage.
• Central banks: Four major decisions (Fed, BOE, BOC, BOJ) in one week could make for market volatility.

Check back next Monday for the latest investor calendar, only on Switzer.

NBN Co spent the weekend boosting Australia’s internet speed for free, but not everyone can get it. Here’s who’s eligible for the free nbn speed boost and what you will (or won’t) be getting.

How the NBN speed boost works

If your home internet suddenly feels snappier, you’re not imagining things.

For the last few months, NBN Co - the company that builds and maintains Australia’s national broadband network - has been planning a major free upgrade to internet speeds for millions of homes and businesses. Over the weekend, it pulled the trigger.

The upgrade doesn’t cost anything extra, but whether you get it depends on what kind of NBN connection you have and which plan you’re on.

Here’s how it works: NBN Co doesn’t sell internet plans directly to the public. Instead, it supplies wholesale internet capacity to retail providers like Telstra, Optus and others, who then sell plans to customers. Over the weekend, NBN Co lifted the wholesale speeds available on some of its most popular speed tiers, meaning retailers can now pass faster speeds on to customers without raising prices (although some still might in future, given that selling nbn doesn't make any provider a whole lot of cash these days).

The upgrades target homes and businesses connected via Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) or Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC), the two fastest NBN technologies.

Here’s what’s changed at the wholesale level:

For example, Telstra’s Premium plan customers on FTTP or HFC can now access 500Mbps down and 50Mbps up, five times faster than what they had before. Telstra says these customers can expect typical evening speeds of 400Mbps during the 7pm–11pm peak window. Its Ultimate and Ultrafast customers are also seeing boosts, particularly in upload performance .

NBN speed boost: who can get it?

Whether you can access the upgrade depends largely on what kind of NBN infrastructure is installed at your property.

The NBN was built using a “multi-technology mix”, meaning not every household has the same type of physical connection.

The latest speed boosts are only available to users on:

• FTTP (Fibre to the Premises), where fibre runs all the way to your home
• HFC (Hybrid Fibre Coaxial), using upgraded cable TV networks
• Some customers on FTTC (Fibre to the Curb) and FTTN (Fibre to the Node) may become eligible if they request a fibre upgrade

To check if you’re eligible, enter your address on your provider’s website or the NBN Co site. If you’re already on one of the affected plans and use a participating provider, your upgrade should happen automatically.

NBN speed boost: who misses out?

One major group misses out entirely: users connected via Fibre to the Building (FTTB). (Frustratingly, that includes me!)

FTTB connections are common in older apartment blocks, where fibre leads to a shared telecommunications room and then uses copper wiring to connect individual units. This setup can be a bottleneck, limiting the maximum speeds achievable. Tens of thousands of apartments still rely on FTTB technology, meaning potentially hundreds of thousands of homes may not be eligible for the new faster tiers unless their building infrastructure is upgraded.

FTTC and FTTN users may also miss out unless they specifically request a technology upgrade (which may involve additional cost or installation work) .

NBN speed boost: how to get it

Getting access to the faster speeds is mostly straightforward, if your infrastructure and provider support it.

Here’s what to do:

• Check your address: Use your provider’s website or nbn.com.au to see if you’re on FTTP or HFC, or if you’re eligible for a fibre upgrade.
• Review your plan: Look at what speed tier you’re currently paying for. Many users are still on 50 Mbps plans, but a small upgrade (like jumping to the 100 Mbps tier) could now mean speeds up to 500 Mbps.
• Talk to your provider: Not all providers automatically pass on the speed boost. Make sure you’re not paying for a slower tier than you’re eligible for. If needed, switch plans or ask about upgrading your connection.
• Check your gear: Your modem/router setup could be the next bottleneck. Make sure your equipment supports higher speeds and is properly configured for optimal performance.

Every February and August, business news sites are full of headlines about company reports and “earnings season”.

That’s because in Australia, most companies have a reporting period ending June 30 – the end of the financial year – meaning they will release their full-year results in August and half-year results in February.

Share prices can move dramatically depending on the company’s performance or its comments about the outlook.

If you’re new to investing and want to understand some of those results by reading company financial statements, here’s where to start.

What is a company financial statement?

Company financial statements show what a business owns, owes, earns and spends. It is like an annual health check-up for a business, written in numbers.

Company financial statements are prepared in accordance with Australian Accounting Standards.

Most listed companies publish their financial statements on their company website, usually in an investor or annual reports section. They are free to access. They are also published on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) website.

What to read first

If you’re new to financial statements, start with the big picture before diving into the numbers.

First, look for the trading update in the half-year report or chief executive’s letter at the beginning of the full-year report. This explains the company’s performance in plain language and will discuss the results for different segments of the business.

You can then look at the statement of profit or loss, which shows the profit or loss for the period.

Revenue is what they have earned – but that’s not counting any costs.

Net profit after tax (known as NPAT) shows total income minus expenses and how much profit is available to shareholders after tax is paid. This is the key measure used in reporting season news stories.

Another term you might run into is EBIT (earnings before interest and tax). EBIT shows profit from core operations before financing costs and tax are taken out. So it is considered a measure of underlying profitability.

Earnings per share (EPS) shows the portion of a company’s profit attributed to each ordinary share in the company.

A closer look at the numbers

After getting a sense of the big picture, the statement of financial position tells you what the company owns and owes.

What percentage of the total assets of the company is made up of liabilities – what the company owes?

Note that “current” assets and liabilities are expected to be converted to cash, or due for payment within 12 months. A company should have enough current assets to pay for its current liabilities.

Total assets less total liabilities equals the total equity: the shareholders’ stake in the company. A negative figure means the company owes more than what the assets are worth. That’s why this statement is often called the balance sheet.

What’s the difference between cash and profit?

Cash and profit are not the same thing. Revenue and expenses are recorded in the reporting period they occur, not when the cash is actually paid or received.

It is possible for a company to show a healthy profit, but have poor cash flow – or the other way around.

For example, a company sells to thousands of new customers in June on credit. Sales are recorded in June, boosting profit. But if the customers don’t pay quickly, there’s no increase in cash.

The cash flow statement shows the cash inflows and outflows of a company, including how much is paid to investors as dividends.

Expectations are the key

Financial markets always look to price in the future, today.

If a company’s profit result is close to market expectations, there may not be a large share price reaction. If it beats expectations, the shares may jump. Likewise, a profit miss will see the share price punished.

But what the company says about its outlook for the coming period is where the greatest chance lies for a surprise that is above or below market expectations. And that can have a big impact on the share price.

To understand a company’s results, context is important. It’s worth reading media coverage from reputable outlets such as The Australian Financial Review (if you don’t have a subscription, try for free access via your local library) and ASX updates.

What are some positive signs to look for?

Look for:

• consistent growth in revenue, profit, cash flow
• more assets than liabilities, with debt at a manageable level
• positive operating cash flow.

You should also consider industry and market trends, management quality, and competitive pressures.

What are some warning signs to watch for?

In its day-to-day operations, keep an eye out for falling revenues and low profit or an outright loss. Sometimes a one-off gain, such as from an asset sale, can prop up results.

Look out for current liabilities higher than current assets, or frequent changes in auditors or senior management.

Following these steps for reading financial statements can help investors to make more informed decisions. A registered financial adviser can provide you with investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not intended as financial advice. All investments carry risk.

Michelle Cull, Associate Professor of Accounting and Financial Planning, Western Sydney University and Ushi Ghoorah, Lecturer, Western Sydney University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Overnight, Wall Street roared back. The Dow Jones was up a hefty 617 points, with all the other major US indices also in strong positive territory. Our own market looked set to open 47 points higher in response. So, on the surface, it all looks like good news. But if you dig a little deeper into what’s actually driving this optimism, you’ll find it’s not a glowing economic outlook. It’s the opposite.

The US just copped another surprisingly bad set of inflation numbers. The CPI came in at 2.9% year-on-year. That’s well above the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target. And while some of this inflation is being blamed on tariffs — something the Fed may look through — the broader picture isn’t exactly encouraging.

What’s perhaps even more concerning is the state of the US job market. There have been downward revisions to previous job growth figures, suggesting the labour market isn’t nearly as strong as initially thought. That’s raising some eyebrows — mine included.

You have to wonder if the policies introduced under Donald Trump, especially around tariffs and trade, are now feeding into a broader economic softness. The numbers coming out this week certainly don’t paint a rosy picture. They’re not good for the market and they’re not good for the economy.

But here’s the twist — and it’s a very American twist. Bad news is being spun as good news for markets. Investors are now betting that the Fed could not only cut rates in September — which was already priced in — but might even go as far as a 0.5% cut. That’s why we saw that massive jump in the Dow.

As I said yesterday, artificial intelligence is one of the big engines driving market optimism right now. But interest rate cuts — particularly the hope of them — are also fuelling this latest rally. And based on the data we’re seeing, it looks like those rate cuts are well and truly on the way.

 

When you see a headline that claims pensioners are paying an effective tax rate of 118%, you’re inclined to think it's BS clickbait. But this time, it’s not. And it poses this question: does any politician care about the injustices of our federal and state tax systems?

While the answer is probably yes, the problem is that they’re not smart enough or caring enough to do the hard work to understand those unfair taxes, so they then jump up and down to make changes happen.

Of course, we have the problem of politicians wanting promotion within their parties, which means having guts on important matters runs second to these representatives of ours who put their vested interest above us. Two classic lines uttered so eloquently by former Prime Minister Paul Keating are relevant here: Never stand between a Premier and a bucket of money and In the race of life, always back self-interest. At least you know it’s trying.  

Along with others, I’ve underlined the injustices of the NSW payroll tax system on this website, and on 2GB with my colleague Ben Fordham. To date, no politician from the Minns’ Government has tried to reach out to ask what my concerns are. That includes the Finance Minister, Courtney Houssos, whose public servants act like the gestapo desperately seeking money and defying the fundamental principles of a quality tax system. I speak with experience here. What’s happening in this country?

Courtney, in case you need some educating, even ChatGPT will tell you that the principles of a good tax system is that it’s simple, adequate, easy to administer, transparent and, wait for it, FAIR!

Any time you want to know how unfair your public servants are, please reach out to me.

But the tax system problems aren’t just at the state level. The SMH today shows that if a pensioner decides to work (and this economy of ours has business sectors where workers are in short supply), their effective tax rate for daring to remain relevant and useful for the economy is nearly 120%!

How does that happen, when the top federal tax rate is 45% plus a 2% Medicare charge?

The SMH’s Millie Muroi has looked at figuring by the Retirement Essentials for super fund HESTA and this is what she reported: “A single pensioner pays an effective marginal tax rate of 78 per cent when increasing their employment income from $30,000 to $35,000. That is because their additional income is taxed but also reduces their age pension from $18,875 to $16,375, meaning they effectively take home just $1,100 of the extra $5,000 in employment income they’ve earned.”

The numbers above were based on a retiree with $300,000 in super. Earning income means there are losses to their pension. This means that the tax penalty is magnified by the smaller pension.

The big losses or tax hit to a pensioner comes when the extra income creeps to around $50,000, which might be understandable, but even if they earn between $15,000 and $30,000, the tax take is close to 66%!

HESTA CEO Debby Blakey got it right when she told the SMH: “Many of our retirees are keen to work, not just for financial reasons, but for connection or their mental well-being. Part-time or casual work in retirement helps people retain a sense of purpose and fulfilment, while addressing critical workforce demand and boosting the broader economy.”

Fixing this injustice is really a job for Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has to balance the need to reduce his budget deficit, while not making the tax system unfair.

News reports from the recent productivity round table in Canberra never told us that getting our smart, keen-to-work retirees back into the workforce could actually help productivity and represent a good social policy. While someone might have brought it up, it didn’t get reported, maybe because no politician really cares about injustices and unfairness in our tax systems.

I care and I plan to rattle the can and those politicians who are choosing to ignore tax collectors behaving badly.

Since August 26, 5.4 million Australians working for small businesses will have the “right to disconnect”. This means they can refuse contact about work – such as emails, texts or calls – outside work hours, unless that refusal could be considered “unreasonable”.

The right to disconnect has been in place for medium and large Australian organisations since August last year. But it’s now extending to small businesses with fewer than 15 employees.

It signals a big shift in how Australians relate to work in an always-connected world. In an era where smartphones tether us to our jobs around the clock, the law allows employees to reclaim personal time and reassert important boundaries between work and life.

For owners of the country’s 2.5 million small businesses, it presents a new challenge, especially knowing if staff will get back to them out of hours.

If you work for or run a small business, what does the right to disconnect and “unreasonable” refusal mean for you?

Can I really ignore my boss now?

For employees, a “reasonable” or “unreasonable” refusal to be contacted outside work hours depends on the context.

According to the Fair Work Commission, several factors must be considered, including:

• the urgency and nature of the contact (or attempted contact)
• how the contact is made and the level of disruption it causes the employee
• the employee’s role and responsibilities
• the employee’s personal circumstances (such as caring or family duties)
• and whether employees are compensated (financially or in other ways) for being available after hours.

Let’s take an employee who receives a non-urgent email at 9:30pm about rescheduling a meeting time. It would generally be “reasonable” for them to defer a reply until work hours.

Similarly, workers caring for sick children may justifiably ignore a routine request, especially if there’s no previous agreement that they’re available and if they’re not compensated for out-of-hours contact.

But as the Fair Work Commission has noted, “it will be unreasonable for an employee to refuse to read, monitor or respond if the contact or attempted contact is required by law”.

So if a tradesperson working for a small business receives an unexpected safety alert late at night and refuses to respond, that refusal could be deemed “unreasonable”, given the urgency and workplace risk.

Another example is of an employee who’s paid an on-call allowance, and gets a text message after work asking them to send clients an urgent document.

Ignoring that call, or delaying a response, would likely be judged “unreasonable”. That’s because their role explicitly demands availability and they’re compensated for it as part of their employment conditions.

I’m the boss. Can my staff really ignore me now?

The right to disconnect legislation does not stop employers from trying to contact employees after working hours.

What’s new is that small business employees now have more legal protection to switch off from work and not respond to unnecessary work-related contacts from their boss or others, such as a contractor.

For example, if you employ people in an office to work regular 9am to 5pm weekday hours, and if there’s nothing in their contract about on-call availability, expecting them to reply to non-urgent emails outside those hours risks being deemed “unreasonable”.

What if we can’t agree on what’s ‘unreasonable’?

If disputes arise, employers and employees are encouraged to resolve it themselves. If that doesn’t work, the Fair Work Commission can intervene if necessary.

Employers who continually demand employees respond to
non-urgent out-of-hours requests could face stop orders or a Fair Work dispute, which could lead to civil penalties.

But it can go the other way, too. If you’re a boss with employees you think are unreasonably refusing out-of-hours contact, you can also apply for help with your dispute.

Making it work in your workplace

Some in small business have voiced concerns about the lack of legal clarity about what is “unreasonable” refusal. This emphasises the urgent need for organisations to develop internal guidelines that align with legal expectations.

But if managed well, it could pay off. In a recent survey of 600 human resources professionals in private, public and not-for-profit organisations, 58% reported the right to disconnect legislation had “significantly increased” or “somewhat increased” employee engagement and productivity levels. Only 4% reported it had either “significantly decreased” or “somewhat decreased” both employee engagement and productivity levels.

If you’re unsure how the new rules affect you, now is the time to start talking: setting shared expectations about out-of-hours contact, then regularly checking if it’s working.

Particularly when you’re working in a small business, with a small team, the right to disconnect needs to be about more than applying the law. It’s about mutual respect and clarity.

That means being as clear as possible about when an out-of-hours response is necessary – or when it really is more reasonable to wait until the next work day.

Huong Le, Associate Professor, Human Resource Management, CQUniversity Australia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.