Will Treasurer Chalmers kill tax-taking bracket creep?
This could be an election winning play by Treasurer Jim Chalmers or his opposite number Angus Taylor, if either number cruncher promises tax indexation!
To the average person, tax stories are indeed taxing, especially if words such as indexation and bracket creep are used. However, if an average Aussie who now has a top tax rate of 30 cents in the dollar is told they’ll pay 37 cents in six years’ time, then you might get the “what the?” reaction.
Yes, this is the figuring former boss of the Productivity Commission, Michael Brennan (now CEO of e61 Institute, which was born from a motivation to bring together problem-solvers from academia, industry and government to push the knowledge frontier so we can tackle big problems facing our society.). Brennan says this automatic tax take impost on people’s pay could be stopped by Treasurer Jim Chalmers or whoever follows him by introducing tax indexation.
This is the way a treasurer would stop bracket creep that eats into our increases in income.
Let Investopedia explain: “Bracket creep is a situation where inflation pushes income into higher tax brackets, resulting in an increase in income taxes but no increase in real purchasing power. It is one result of a tax system which features a number of tax brackets. Bracket creep is usually defined as the process by which inflation pushes wages and salaries into higher tax brackets.”
So, if there’s inflation and you get a pay rise, that extra money pushes you into a higher tax bracket and you then pay extra tax. It’s loss to you and a windfall to the treasurer.
The AFR’s Michael Read explained the benefits of indexing the tax brackets neatly. “Raising the tax brackets in line with annual inflation or wages growth would effectively deliver workers a nominal tax cut on July 1 every year, regardless of which major party held office, rather than sporadically every few years when it was deemed affordable,” he wrote.
Economist Chris Richardson told the AFR that the average full-time worker on $135,000 currently ends up in the 30% tax bracket. However, with inflation and no indexation of the brackets, they’ll end up in the 37% bracket by 2031!
The problem of this potential solution to ‘bracket creep’ (as you creep into higher tax brackets) is that it will rob the nation’s treasurer of easy money that helps repair budget deficits.
If a Treasurer did a Star Trek and ‘went where no treasurer has ever gone’, it would mean they’d actually have to make hard decisions not to spend or waste money to eradicate big budget deficits.
And this underlines the problem of the upcoming election because both sides of politics will be offering heaps of expensive promises that will largely be paid for by bracket creep!
This tax indexation is such a neat trick that the average voter doesn’t understand, so you can see why treasurers have avoided it. Read says 21 out of the 35 OECD countries ‘play’ the same taxing game as Australia.
However, it means 14 OECD countries do give a virtual tax cut each year with inflation pushing up the starting amount for a tax bracket by what inflation has been.
If the 30% tax bracket started at $100,000 and inflation was a huge 10%, then the bracket would be pushed up by 10% of $100,000 or $10,000. The 30% tax rate or bracket would then start at $110,000 and lots of taxpayers wouldn’t be hit by bracket creep that taxes too much of any pay rise.
No side of politics is talking tax cuts, but this is early days in the unofficial election campaign. Richardson suggests something like tax indexation is harder to deliver when the Government is spending at 27.2% of GDP, a number that hasn’t been seen since the Whitlam years.
Treasurer Chalmers points to the stage three tax cuts that did lower the average tax rate and helped Australians cope with the big inflation coming out of Covid. But ‘bracket creep’ is the way treasurers get back the money they give in tax cuts. This windfall bankrolls too much spending linked to promises made to get political parties elected.
It’s why I’ll be surprised if we hear anything about tax indexation to kill bracket creep from our political representatives between now and May 17. Isn’t it time to address some of these unfair tax matters?