This is no country for employers. Isn’t it time someone, somewhere in government who has even an inkling of what it’s like to be an employer stood up and made it clear that many employers, particularly at the smaller end of town, are cracking under the strain?

At a time when work-from-home (WFH) employees are being targeted as weak links in business cyber protection systems by Chinese hackers, a court decision has made it harder for employers to reject requests from employees to entrench their right to avoid the office.

Let’s look at the local threat to bosses — a crazy court decision granting an employee the right to work from home. Here are the main points:

1. A Westpac employee, who had a baby, was granted a temporary WFH arrangement.
2. Later Westpac introduced a two-day-a-week return to office policy.
3. However, the employee changed homes to be close to her child’s private school, but this was two hours from her Westpac office.
4. A court has ruled that Westpac can’t make this employee accept the two-day-a-week return to office policy. Why?
5. The fact the bank had allowed the employee to work from home successfully for years after maternity leave before requiring her to return to the office ignored that the employee had met performance metrics while being home-based!

The AFR’s David Marin-Guzman reported on the Finance Sector Unions reaction to the court decision and the warning from lawyers and employers.

“The Finance Sector Union pledged to use the Fair Work Commission ruling handed down on Monday to push employers to reconsider their refusals of WFH requests as they cite other similar cases,” he explained. “The decision, which went against Westpac’s two-day-a-week return to office policy, turned on the fact the bank had allowed Chandler to work from home successfully for years after maternity leave before requiring her to return to the office.”

And this is the logical conclusion from the Australian Industry Group workplace relations policy head Brent Ferguson: “The decision will undoubtedly make some employers wary about informally permitting WFH arrangements, given this could later be used against them in a dispute.”

And while this looks like a huge challenge for businesses with WFH employees, then there are Chinese hackers!

The AFR’s Michael Read reveals that “Chinese hackers are exploiting the rise of remote work by hijacking employees’ home routers and smart devices to breach corporate systems and create a sprawling network of infected gadgets.”

He added: “The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) on Tuesday warned that state-sponsored cyber actors posed a serious threat to the nation, as it revealed the average loss per cybercrime against big business more than tripled to $202,700 in 2024-25.”

The hackers target home devices connected to the internet, such as home routers, VPNs and firewalls to create botnets that support further targeting around the globe. The tactic gives the hackers access to other connected devices like smart appliances, phones, consoles and computers.

The ASD said 96% of the 120 attacks on edge devices, which help a business system talk to the WFH employees home system, in 2024-25 were successful.

The question is if the likes of Qantas can’t stop hackers accessing its customers’ records, what hope has a successful small or medium size business?

And doesn’t this mean that the WFH trend increases the likelihood of a cyber-attack for local businesses?

In an old-fashioned world, where rationality prevailed over emotional demands about things like work-life-balance for employees, the threat of hackers that could kill a business and the jobs it creates would have taken precedence.

And I ask this question: Who in any government worries and does something about the mental health of employers, who not only have to deal with new age demands from employees, but have to cope with excessive regulation, prowling tax offices (federally and states-wise) a slow-growing economy and now Chinse hackers!

Will someone in government give employers a break?

This new role of the PM as a share price pumper saw Australian stocks in rare earths and the general mining sector spike the market index to all-time highs on the back of the critical minerals agreement signed by both leaders. So, where to from here?

A love affair kicked off when Donald met Albo, with the US President surprisingly besotted by our PM.

Australian exporters will be holding their breath hoping a rare earth deal today between Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese won’t bring a trade ban blitz from Beijing.

The Prime Minister has found a ‘rare’ opportunity to get the attention of President Donald Trump, with his much-anticipated meeting in Washington today. But the topic for discussion i.e., guaranteeing prices for rare earths and other critical minerals, could get him in a lot of trouble with our most important export customer, China!

And we know a cranky China has no problem getting even with tariffs and trade bans, so there could be challenging times ahead for the likes our many exporters, including Rio Tinto and, of course, BHP, which is currently in a battle with Beijing over the price of iron ore.

In case you missed this, abc.net.au summed up the price battle between BHP and the iron ore buyer called China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) this way: “China has long wanted to exert more control over the price it pays for iron ore, particularly as its steel makers face narrowing margins and Australian mines make the inevitable transition to a lower-grade product.”

This encounter between the world’s biggest buyer of iron ore and BHP, the biggest supplier, is seen as a test case for the world’s second biggest economy, which recently sought to put licences on the purchasing and use of its rare earths. This led to President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US.

At the time, Mr Trump said it was wrong for one country to control the supply of rare earths and as a reaction, said this: “I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so”.

While he later backtracked on this threat, who knows where he’s at on this meeting. All this puts a serious spotlight on what Trump and Albanese agree to and then how Beijing responds. In fact, as of Friday, the President was indicating he’d meet Xi.

Right now, our Government is proposing a $1.2 billion national critical minerals strategic reserve, which makes sense given rare earths are used in smartphones, jet engines, MRI equipment, wind turbines and many hi-tech products.

Our leading supplier of rare earths, Lynas Rare Earths, has seen its share price spike a whopping 147% over the past year to $19.24. This company and its shareholders will be very keen to see what the two leaders agree to today.

However, shareholders of the likes of BHP and producers of other exports that go to China will be holding their breath to see how China reacts to any agreement between Trump and our PM.

The Australian Financial Review says “G7 member countries have separately discussed putting in place price floors for rare earths produced in allied countries, which may extend to Australia, to counter China’s dominance and provide an incentive to producers, according to Reuters.”

The Government is being told by the likes of Nicola Beer, vice president of the European Investment Bank, that Australia must not let fear of repercussions stand in the way of new minerals deals.

“I think to be afraid, to be scared, is not good guidance. To be stable on your own feet is the best way to start,” Beer told the AFR . “What we do not want to be is blackmailed by restrictions on one or two of the minerals and afterwards our sectors... the stronger you are, the less you are bullied in your yard.”

While this make sense and is courageous, our farmers and other miners, along with their shareholders, could pay the price if China’s reprisals end up being a big hit to the prices and bottom lines of these interested parties.

Will the shock spike in the jobless rate guarantee a Cup Day rate cut? Does the Federal government care that many businesses are cracking under the pressure?

Australia received an economic shock that should put a Cup Day interest rate cut back on the table, which only a bad inflation reading on October 29 could kill off. However, recent statistical revelations about the economy might not be capturing why unemployment spiked to the highest level since Covid KO’d our economy!

More on that later. For now, let’s look at what the statistician told us about the job market. Here goes:

1. The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.5%, which is a huge jump.
2. More Aussies were seeking work last month with the participation rate ticking up to 67% in September from 66.9% in August.
3. But hiring has slowed to a monthly average of 12,900 so far in 2025, down from the 2024 average of 32,600.
4. The number of unemployed Australians jumped by 34,000 in September to 684,000 people, also the most since October 2021.
5. These numbers pushed the Australian dollar down half-a-cent to 64.8 US cents.

If Reserve Bank Governor Bullock wasn’t worried about our inflation rate ticking up, you’d look at these jobs numbers and say you could confidently punt on a Cup Day cut of 0.25%, taking the cash rate to 3.35% from the current 3.6%.

However, speaking at a conference in Washington on Tuesday, Bullock reiterated Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter’s recent comments that the August monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator suggested that the September quarter CPI would be stronger-than-forecast in their August Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP).”

This is why the CPI reading on October 29 will be a big deal for a potential rate cut on the first Tuesday in November — Cup Day.

While this is what conventional economic analysis would look at, legendary economist J.K. Galbraith taught us that the consensus view on economics can be off the mark.

Why? Well, computer models rely on the history of business, consumer and even government responses to developments that are outside the square. Donald Trump and his shock return to tariffs isn’t something most economists expected. How these taxes on imports affect US and international economic activity, and even government policy reactions worldwide, could confound the economic models economists and central banks use to guess where the economy is heading.

But there are also local factors that couldn’t be fully understood that might explain why hiring is slowing and unemployment is rising. Let me list some, for those public servants and banking economists who might not effectively survey the small business sector.

Here goes:

1. Work from home has become a curve ball most employers have to deal with, and Victoria has proposed laws to make it a legal right.
2. Employers are the one dealing with mental health issues in the workplace and they often don’t have HR departments to deal with this. This huge rise in claims of this nature is apparently sending the workers’ compensation insurer in NSW broke, such that a Labor Treasurer, Daniel Mookhey, is pleading to put caps on compensation. Does anyone think of the bosses who have to deal with these disruptions? The paperwork for them dealing with claims of this nature is huge and takes them away from doing business and earning revenue that supports their business. (As an aside, I’d like to know if an employer would ever win a case against a ‘bully’ employee, because they’re out there?)
3. Tax offices — federal state — are on the prowl for back taxes and they’re playing hardball on businesses, often exaggerating what’s owed as though it’s an ambit claim.
4. While interest rates might be down three times this year, they were raised 13 times before that. This not only has raised business costs but also has hurt customers willingness to buy, business owners taking risks and employing staff.
5. Our current economic growth rate is a low 1.8% compared to an historic rate of 3.4%.
6. Power bills have rocked many businesses and have hit profits for those who have a big demand for electricity or gas.
7. Many employers are looking at Artificial Intelligence and wondering if challenging, expensive employees can be replaced by AI.

This chart shows NAB’s surveying of business confidence and conditions (i.e. how businesses feel right now). You’ll see that while confidence is rising slightly, the levels are way below where they’ve been when economic growth was higher and business challenges were lower.

The black line shows business conditions or how businesses feel about their business has been on the slide.

It’s time our governments and the RBA started to understand how important business owners/employers are to the health of the economy and how they need to be encouraged, rather than beaten into being cautious, down graders of their businesses to make sure they can survive.

Businesses have had to endure Covid lockdowns, 13 interest rate rises, work-from-home challenges and ‘tough’ tax regimes on top of a new age workplace where they really have to be careful about what they say and do. For many, it’s affecting the growth of their business and, in turn, the growth of the economy.

As an economist, while I’m not sure how significant this is to the overall economy, the RBA, the Albanese government and the state Premiers ignore these issues at their peril.

Interestingly, the state where the government is seen as the most anti-business and anti-investor is Victoria. And it’s the state where house price growth is the slowest and unemployment is the highest at 4.7%.  There might be something in that.

The ASX or Australian Securities Exchange is about to lose its virtual monopoly status as the country’s top stock exchange.

The ASX or Australian Securities Exchange is about to lose its virtual monopoly status as the country’s top stock exchange. Our money regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has permitted a small-time rival to be a full competitor to country’s gatekeeper for the companies that can or can’t list on our stock exchange publicly to attract funds from investors.

While this rival, CBOE Australia, is small here because it has been given a limited role with investments, going forward it will be able to list new companies just like the ASX. And the local ASX will be in for some real competition because the local CBOE operation is owned by the Chicago-based CBOE Global Markets, which has deep pockets and is used to the tough competitive world of US stock and options trading.

By the way, this US business came out of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange, which is the biggest options exchange in the world with revenues over US$4 billion a year, so the ASX can expect some real competition. Local companies and investors should benefit from ASIC’s decision. And CBOE sees some $US40 billion of trading go across its platform each year!

This ASIC decision comes after ASX had an embarrassing outage last year that stopped trading, along with the clearing and settlement processes that’s crucial to professional and retail investors who play the market.

While CBOE has had difficulties attracting business, they were innovative and were the first to introduce cryptocurrency and fixed income exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Anyone with any experience trying to list a company in Australia knows dealing with the ASX has been expensive and drawn out time wise, which has discouraged some businesses from going public.

Of course, While the ASX will remain the elephant in the room, over time CBOE Australia will be looking to eat the elephant’s lunch, and that will be a real plus for companies and investors.

Not only will there be competition on price, the ‘new kid on the block’ will undoubtedly look at all the customer-unfriendly practices that companies and investors have had to cop from the monopoly ASX and do its best to offer some real service.

The only investors who’ll complain about this ASIC move might be investors who are long the stock ASX Ltd. The chart below shows that the market suspected the ASX’s days of being a monopoly were numbered.

On May 9, the stock was at $72.59. Today it’s $58.06, a 20% slide that suggests maybe some smarties anticipated that ASIC was likely to end the ASX’s monopoly.

ASX Limited

Last year, the ASX made a net profit after tax of more than half-a-billion, which was a 7.5% increase on the previous year. This was similar to a huge business like Harvey Norman, which saw a 47% increase in its profit last year. And Gerry did that with a lot of competition from the likes of JB Hi-Fi and other great retailers.

That kind of money for the ASX might be harder to make going forward with a new rival. And the need for this monopoly to advertise, be more price competitive and consumer-friendly will be a long overdue change.

Well done, ASIC!

With the NRL grand final looming on Sunday I have done the analysis and the winner will be, wait for it, Sydney!

The ATO is using a cunning plan to hit any big company dodging tax. That cunning plan is called a rare thing called common sense.

What’s the learned view on what we should expect next month in terms of a rate cut?

While economists, including yours truly, got the RBA’s September rate call right yesterday, the November interest rate decision will be like picking the winner of the four-legged lottery we call the Melbourne Cup. And yes, the central bank’s rate-setting board meets on Cup Day, namely the first Tuesday in November, that being the 4^th of that month.

So, what’s the learned view on what we should expect next month?

The starting point is that the RBA left the cash rate of interest at 3.6% and inflation hitting 3% for the year in August on a monthly basis. This was the highest level in more than a year.

The board’s statement was clear about its inflation concerns:

“Recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the. August Statement on Monetary Policy.”

It also noted that its economic guessing was telling the board members that the economy was growing better than earlier in the year when quarterly growth was 0.2% in the March quarter, meaning the annual number was a weak 1.2%.

That’s why we’ve seen three rate cuts totalling 0.75% this year, so far.

The RBA has cut rates by 75 basis points so far this year, after holding them steady at 4.35% since November 2023 in its bid to rein in inflation.

This led the board to conclude:

“Stronger-than-expected data on growth and inflation may indicate that households have become more comfortable consuming ... [but] growth in consumption might not persist, particularly if households become more concerned about overseas developments.”

Central bank boss, Michele Bullock, didn’t rule in or out a cut in November and pointed to the potential global issues out there. And she was happy that monetary policy had firepower to help the economy if rate cuts were needed.

CBA economist Belinda Allen looked at the board’s statement and concluded that:

“the decision to hold interest rates steady was “unanimous” across the nine-member rate-setting Board, which appears willing to wait for confirmation that inflation is on track to sustainably hit the midpoint of its 2-3% target band.”

The next time we see our latest quarterly CPI reading on inflation is Wednesday October 29, which is six days before the Cup Day rate decision.

In the previous week, the RBA will get to see the latest economic growth number on October 23, and then the September unemployment figure the next day.

That’s a virtual arsenal of economic statistics that should be sufficient for the RBA to make a firm decision on whether a cut’s needed. And that’s the crucial point — the central bank will cut if the economy needs it. Lower inflation and economic growth would force its hand to cut. Also, rising unemployment would help those praying on another cut ASAP.

Interesting, the US business website CNBC looked at our rate cut prospects and quoted a note from Harry Murphy Cruise, Oxford Economics’ Head of Economic Research and Global Trade, who said the RBA had “effectively won its fight against inflation. He forecasts that Australia’s trimmed mean inflation — a gauge of core or underlying inflation — to ease to 2.6% in the third quarter of 2025 and added that this should pave the way for a rate cut in November. An additional cut in the first quarter of 2026 can be expected, as underlying inflation by that time will have approached the midpoint of RBA’s target band, but the unemployment rate is expected to rise, warranting additional monetary support, Cruise said”.

But unlike the last survey of economists and commentators by Finder.com.au, when 32 out of 32 respondents to the survey said “no cut”, the Cup Day decision will split economic experts.

Belinda Allen announced that her colleagues had pushed the next and final rate cut out from November to February!

However, the AMP chief economist and his team see it differently. “We see September quarter trimmed mean inflation being close enough to RBA forecasts at 2.6-2.7% year-on-year to allow another rate cut in November but concede it’s a very close call.

“Beyond that, we are forecasting one more rate cut in February taking the cash rate to a bottom of 3.1%. The risks are that they are delayed, or we get even less cuts.”

By the way, Oliver points out that the money market players who live and breathe interest rates are allowing for another one and a half more 0.25% cuts with around a 54% probability of a cut by year end.

So, in horse-racing betting terms, a cut is no certainty and remains a 50:50 chance.

While the RBA looks a certainty to stay ‘on hold’, the next decision on Cup Day in November looks like a good each way bet for a 0.25% cut. And here’s why.

With 32 out of 32 economists and commentators telling a Finder.com.au survey that there’d be no change to the cash rate of interest from the RBA today, the words of J.K. Galbraith, one of my favourite economists, came back to me.

These words are: “In economics, the majority is always wrong.”

While the word “always” makes Galbraith’s astute observations debateable, it has always been something I’ve never forgotten when it comes to trying to make sense out of economies, government policies and stock, as well as bond markets.

While his statement wouldn’t be so impactful, I’m more comfortable with substituting “always” for “often”. This is really good advice for anyone who aspires to make money out of financial markets.

That said, the majority of economists should be proved right today. While the RBA looks a certainty to stay ‘on hold’, the next decision on Cup Day in November looks like a good each way bet for a 0.25% cut.

However, it will depend on the data drops between now and November 4, when ‘the race that stops the nation’, competes with the RBA for front page headlines.

Given that Mark Twain, the great US social commentator and historically great bagger, was credited as coining the description “the race that stops a nation” in 1895, even Twain would have a wager on the winner of the Cup beating a rate cut for top headline in our bet-crazy country! (By the way, ChatGPT, disputes that Twain penned this observation of the Cup, but it does say he loved the occasion.)

But I digress. Back to the reason for no cut today. So let me list my reasoning that the cash rate will be held at 3.6% today. Here goes:
1. We’ve had three cuts totalling 0.75% already this year.
2. Monthly inflation went back to a too high 3% in August.
3. Unemployment is only 4.2% and didn’t rise in August.
4. Economic growth was 0.6% in the June quarter and annual growth was 1.6%, which was better than the March figures of 0.2% for the quarter and 1.2% for the year.
5. Electricity prices soared 24.6% in the 12 months to August, with the large increase primarily due to state and federal governments energy rebates being phased out, and now the state rebates have lapsed.
The maker or breaker of a Cup Day rate cut will be the quarterly Consumer Price Index number delivered on October 29. This report needs to show both headline and underlying inflation is firmly in the 2-3% band.

Before that, on October 24, we see the National Accounts that will tell us how the economy was growing at the end of September. If it’s less than 1.6% that will help those praying for a rate cut. If it’s higher, then the RBA board would think a rate cut isn’t necessary. That’s why the inflation reading five days later will be the big determinant on whether a cut happens on Cup Day.

While I’d like to say you can bet on a November rate cut, as Twain once said: “Truth is stranger than fiction and